How Many Points

[ian_brown]

Do Darlo need to win the league?

The players and manager have performed wonderfully since February began in coping with the hellish schedule and still managing to win games. It's to be commended just how good a job the team have done when faced with so much travelling - especially when a lot of lads will be seeing literally no time at home in a 48 period when playing down the country on a Tuesday.

Unfortunately, the hard work continues and the next 6 weeks will be massive. The two weeks from today will be especially difficult - what with the Tuesday/Thursday games the week after next.

So, just how many wins/points will secure the title? I'm sure nobody wants another playoff campaign (better than nowt mind). I'm sure MG is preaching that the lads need to win every game and he's clued up enough to know that the next game is always the most important - however for us not part of the playing/coaching staff we can afford to look a little further into the future.

[Vodka_Vic]

If we achieve the following in our last 11 games - 7-2-2, that will be 23 points meaning 100. That would mean Blyth would have to achieve better than 6-1-1 to overhaul us (as both teams would be level on 100 points, and we'd have a better goal difference). If we take this as a starting point, anything which Blyth get which is worse than this is a bonus, then our points total needed would come down. My concern is the number of games, and the fact that we may have further postponements (Forecast for this Saturday is getting gradually worse).

[ian_brown]

If we achieve the following in our last 11 games - 7-2-2, that will be 23 points meaning 100. That would mean Blyth would have to achieve better than 6-1-1 to overhaul us (as both teams would be level on 100 points, and we'd have a better goal difference). If we take this as a starting point, anything which Blyth get which is worse than this is a bonus, then our points total needed would come down. My concern is the number of games, and the fact that we may have further postponements (Forecast for this Saturday is getting gradually worse).

So by your logic, 8 wins will guarantee it?!

[Vodka_Vic]

Yes. Been trying to do it coldly and analytically, which isn't easy when you're emotionally involved. Ginge is much better at the stats than me.

[micra3]

One more than Blyth.

[Spyman]

Always three more than we have, until the season is over.

[OHDFC]

28

[DarloOnTheUp]

Always three more than we have, until the season is over.

I agree, it would be difficult to get three more after the season is over.

[bga]

Don't we need 29 not 28 points to be certain, how can you be sure they cannot overturn our goal difference? One big defeat for us and one big win for them could swing it couldn't it?

[Ginge01]

Yes. Been trying to do it coldly and analytically, which isn't easy when you're emotionally involved. Ginge is much better at the stats than me.

Thanks for the compliment Vodka_Vic.

I'm excited for tomorrow night, it feels as important to me (yes, every game is important) as the midweek game last season at Northwich Victoria. The same result (a 1-0 Quakers win) and we will be able to see the top of the mountain, we've been scrapping, fighting & battling for months to get this close.

The Darlington and Blyth fixture list comparison below and an early wild prediction.
The number to the right (for example Nantwich (A) (09) denotes the opponents current league position.
I'm going to put my guesses in for the result, I am using 3 scores, 1-0 is a Quakers win, 0-0 is a draw, 0-1 is not a happy time.

.................... Darlington............................Blyth
Tue Mar 22nd...0-0 Nantwich (A) (09)...........x-x no game
Sat Mar 26th....1-0 Halesowen (H) (13).........1-0 Stamford (A) (21)
Mon Mar 28th...1-0 Whitby (A) 1pm (20).......0-0 Workington (H) (04)......Easter Monday
Sat Apr 02nd....1-0 Sutton Coldfield (H) (12).1-0 Ilkeston (A) (15)
Mon Apr 04th...x-x no game........................1-0 Hyde (A) (18)
Tue Apr 05th...0-0 Frickley (A) (10)..............x-x no game
Thu Apr 07th...1-0 Nantwich (H) (09)...........x-x no game
Sat Apr 09th....0-0 Grantham (A) (14)..........1-0 Skelmersdale (H) (17)
Tue Apr 12th...1-0 Skelmersdale (H) (17)......x-x no game............. Darlington will have played the same number of games
Sat Apr 16th....1-0 Stamford (H) (21)...........0-0 Matlock (A) (16)
Tue Apr 19th...1-0 Grantham (H) (14)...........1-0 Rushall (H) (08)
Sat Apr 23rd....0-0 Rushall (A) (08)..............1-0 Marine (H) (19)

I have us going 7-4-0, that's 25 points
Blyth going 6-2-0, that's 20 points

So the current and final games played and points won would be
...............Pd.....Pts...Pd.....Pts
Darlington. 35... 77... 46... 102
Blyth ....... 38... 81... 46... 101

I'm giving us away draws at Frickley (they seem to be a tough opponent currently), at Grantham (Martin Gray rests several players due to the previous Sat, Tue & Thu games and we get a point), at Rushall on the last day as they showed they're a battling team, and finally tomorrow at Nantwich because they want to prove to us they are a playoff quality team that dropped from 2nd place at New Year due to cup runs and postponements.

I'm not picking Darlington or Blyth to lose any, if we get 4 points of Nantwich, job well done, I am giving Blyth the edge to beat Workington, but that should be a real battle.
I am guessing Blyth fails to win one away game, they are at Stamford (21), Ilkeston (15), Hyde (18) & Matlock (16), they're all winnable but Blyth's form has not been as good as expected recently and maybe a draw is the result somewhere, I picked Matlock for no special reason.

Roll on tomorrow night.

[Vodka_Vic]

I think Ian means how many do you predict will be enough by the end of the season rather than mathematically at this moment in time, bga.

Ginge, good work again, it appears we are not too far apart in our predictions. I like your 'deliberate' mistake to get people to read your stats (You have Blyth's record as 7-1-0 when giving the score predictions, meaning they would actually pip us to the championship. Best change it before the Football Gods read it).

[bga]

I think Ian means how many do you predict will be enough by the end of the season rather than mathematically at this moment in time, bga.

You can tell I am a "glass half empty" person when it comes to Darlo predictions! Maybe we will all be a bit wiser after tomorrow night.

[Ginge01]

I think Ian means how many do you predict will be enough by the end of the season rather than mathematically at this moment in time, bga.

***

[super_les_mcjannet]

6 wins and 2 draws puts Blyth on 101 points, I think you had 99 down Ginge.

I try thinking about it and I just can't get past the next game to be honest.

[Ginge01]

6 wins and 2 draws puts Blyth on 101 points, I think you had 99 down Ginge.

I try thinking about it and I just can't get past the next game to be honest.

You're right Super_Les, I edited without double checking, I changed the Blyth Workington from a draw to a win, then back to a draw that makes them 20 points 6 wins and a 2 draws = 101.

Let's win tomorrow night.

[Darlo_Pete]

100 points should definitely be enough.

[shawry]

100 points should definitely be enough.

Should and definitely don't really go together

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[Cosmos]

Blyth are averaging 2.13 points per game which would take them to 98 points if they continue that average. They can 'only' finish on a maximum of 105 points.

We average 2.2 points per game which would see us finish on 101 points.

Obviously it's not that simple and maintaining 2.2 points per game with 2+ games per week is going to be hard but 7 or 8 wins out of 11 would surely see us finish top.

[Spyman]

100 points should definitely be enough.

Should and definitely don't really go together

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Basically it would take an implosion of form not seen since....about a year ago for us to not win it. Is that what you're saying?

Blyth are averaging 2.13 points per game which would take them to 98 points if they continue that average. They can 'only' finish on a maximum of 105 points.

We average 2.2 points per game which would see us finish on 101 points.

Obviously it's not that simple and maintaining 2.2 points per game with 2+ games per week is going to be hard but 7 or 8 wins out of 11 would surely see us finish top.

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[m62exile]

100 points should definitely be enough.

Should and definitely don't really go together

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Basically it would take an implosion of form not seen since....about a year ago for us to not win it. Is that what you're saying?

Blyth are averaging 2.13 points per game which would take them to 98 points if they continue that average. They can 'only' finish on a maximum of 105 points.

We average 2.2 points per game which would see us finish on 101 points.

Obviously it's not that simple and maintaining 2.2 points per game with 2+ games per week is going to be hard but 7 or 8 wins out of 11 would surely see us finish top.

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We finished last season with:

W W W W W W D D W (+W W in the play offs)

and that's an "implosion?"

[Spyman]

100 points should definitely be enough.

Should and definitely don't really go together

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Basically it would take an implosion of form not seen since....about a year ago for us to not win it. Is that what you're saying?

Blyth are averaging 2.13 points per game which would take them to 98 points if they continue that average. They can 'only' finish on a maximum of 105 points.

We average 2.2 points per game which would see us finish on 101 points.

Obviously it's not that simple and maintaining 2.2 points per game with 2+ games per week is going to be hard but 7 or 8 wins out of 11 would surely see us finish top.

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We finished last season with:

W W W W W W D D W (+W W in the play offs)

and that's an "implosion?"

Ok, slightly before that then, when we gave away a lead over Salford with several games in hand.

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[Cosmos]

So 103 points will definitely do it but 3 wins and a draw from our remaining 5 would most probably see us do it on goal difference. Thankfully we've some margin for error as the players must be exhausted.

Massive game on Tuesday, points wise and psychologically.

[Darlo_Dan]

When was the last time we were actually top of the league?

[Darlo_Dan]

We were last top of the league on 24th October after the Mickelover game. Would basically be 6 months ago should we avoid defeat on Tuesday.

[Vodka_Vic]

I'm still sticking to Blyth finishing on max.100 points. I still think they'll draw another by the end of the season.