Top 9 teams after todays games, Sat Feb 25th 2017

[Ginge01]

Top 9 teams after Saturday’s games, Sat Feb 25th 2017

Todays results
Darlington ..... 2-3 Harrogate
Fylde ............. 3-1 Tamworth
Kidderminster. 2-0 Stockport
Salford .......... 2-1 Telford


The top 9 in the Vanarama National League North, Sat Feb 25th 2017
.......................... Pd ..W D L...W D L...F..A.....GD...Pts
1. Fylde ............. 31 11 4 1. 10 2 3.. 87 44.. 43 ..69
2. Salford .......... 31 10 5 1… 7 3 5.. 63 31.. 32 ..59
3. Kidderminster. 29 12 2 2… 6 3 4.. 54 26.. 28 ..59
4. Chorley ......... 31 10 4 2… 6 6 3.. 47 29.. 18 ..58
5. Halifax ........... 29.. 9 4 2… 7 2 5.. 62 37.. 25 ..54
6. Stockport ...... 31.. 7 4 4… 8 5 3.. 47 35.. 12 ..54
7. Darlington ..... 30.. 8 2 5… 6 6 3.. 65 48.. 17.. 50
8. Tamworth ...... 31 10 2 3… 5 3 8.. 51 53.. -2.. 50
9. Harrogate ...... 31.. 9 2 5… 5 5 5.. 54 42.. 12.. 49


Top 9 Head to Head, updated Feb 25th 2017
............................ Pd W D L...W D L...Pts
1. Kidderminster. 12 4 2 0... 3 0 3.. 23
2. Halifax ........... 12 4 2 1... 1 2 2.. 19
3. Fylde .............. 11 3 1 1... 2 2 2.. 18
4. Darlington ...... 13 3 2 2... 1 3 2.. 17
5. Chorley .......... 12 2 3 2... 2 1 2.. 16
6. Tamworth ....... 11 2 1 2... 2 1 3.. 14
7. Stockport ....... 12 1 3 2... 2 2 2.. 14
8. Salford ........... 11 2 2 1... 0 2 4.. 10
9. Harrogate ...... 10 0 0 4... 2 3 1.. 07

From the games played so for between Top 9 teams, Kidderminster have been the most impressive, surprisingly 2nd placed Salford have struggled against Top 9 teams, especially away.



Comments in current full league table order,
Top 9 games, played, outstanding etc

Fylde, 11 played, remaining fixtures, home to Kidderminster, Stockport & Darlington, away at Halifax and Harrogate.
3-1 home win over Tamworth, comfortable home win that maintains a 10 point lead.

Salford, 11 played, remaining fixtures, home to Chorley, Stockport & Darlington, away at Tamworth & Harrogate.
2-1 win home over Telford, a three horse race for 2nd through 4th place with Kidderminster and Chorley.

Kidderminster, 12 played, remaining fixtures, home to Halifax & Harrogate, away at Fylde & Tamworth.
2-0 win home to 6th place Stockport, two games in hand on Salford will move them into second place. They have won 7 out of the 12 Top 9 games played this season, the most impressive record playing Top 9 opponents, with only Fylde away remaining to play from games against the top 4 teams.

Chorley, 12 played, remaining fixtures, home to Halifax, away at Salford, Stockport and Harrogate.
No game on Saturday, the toughest Top 9 game left is the game at Salford. Will make it into the playoffs.

Halifax, 12 played, remaining fixtures, home to Fylde, away at Kidderminster, Chorley and Harrogate.
No game on Saturday, three tough Top 9 games outstanding for this playoff hopeful.

Stockport, 12 played, remaining fixtures, home to Chorley & Tamworth, away at Fylde & Salford.
0-2 loss at Kidderminster, another playoff hopeful with three tough Top 9 games outstanding, with away games at Fylde and Salford.

Darlington, 13 played, remaining fixtures, home to Tamworth, away at Fylde & Salford.
2-3 Home loss to Harrogate, a disappointing loss for 10 men Darlington. Trying to catch Halifax and Stockport for the last playoff place, with the two toughest Top 9 away games remaining, at Fylde and at Salford.

Tamworth, 11 played, remaining fixtures, home to Salford, Kidderminster & Harrogate, away at Stockport & Darlington.
1-3 away loss at leaders Fylde. Four points behind 5th place Halifax, one of the weaker Top 9 teams.

Harrogate, 10 played, remaining fixtures, home to Fylde, Salford, Chorley & Halifax, away at Kidderminster & Tamworth.
3-2 at Darlington. Only their second Top 9 win, 0-0-4 at home, unlikely to push up into a playoff place.

Forecast for the playoff games
Kidderminster vs Halifax
Chorley ........ vs Salford


This weeks Top 9 games
28/02 Brackley ...... vs KIDDERMINSTER (Tue)

01/03 DARLINGTON vs Altrincham (Wed 19:45)

04/03 Worcester .... vs DARLINGTON (Sat)
04/03 HALIFAX ...... vs Boston
04/03 F.C. Utd Man. vs KIDDERMINSTER
04/03 HARROGATE.. vs FYLDE
04/03 STOCKPORT.. vs CHORLEY
04/03 TAMWORTH.. vs SALFORD


Reintroduction of the Top n, again this season, the Top 9 again.
Why the delay, partly laziness on my part, I've been trying to read the Quakers form and then send out the first one, but's it's almost March so here goes!!! Thank you to Vodka_Vic, quote ‘It might be that he doesn't rate our chances, or that there are too many variables at this time, as the last 2 seasons he was merely commenting on a 2 horse race’. You’re pretty close, although in past seasons I was also following Northwich Victoria, Salford, Spennymoor & Bamber Bridge, last year it was Salford and Blyth, but it became a two horse race with Blyth.
Yes, it has been hard to read the 2016/17 team, I think, for many reasons, so here are some of my thoughts.

Since the ‘new’ club was created and entered the Northern League, the club has risen to the challenge and blended in new players, overcoming challenges to always finish second place or champions. Stephen Thompson, Mark Bell and Terry Galbraith were added in that first year, following that season, there have been excellent contributions from Alan White, Adam Mitchell, Graeme Armstrong, Nathan Cartman, Phil Turnbull & Kevin Burgess and others, the quality of the squad meant we could beat down most challengers over 40+ games. This year, we are no longer one of the biggest fishes in the pond. We now have to deal with professional clubs, with larger budgets, drawing bigger crowds than us. It’s now possible to go to grounds where 2500 or more are present, so we no longer have that feel of ‘home crowds’ at away games, like Whitby was last season.
Last season when several new players arrived, Martin Gray tried them out, and some of them left, the right balance was found and good streaks of results took place, for this season since November, finding that balance has proved elusive so predicting the final position has become very hard to determine.

The new players have worked hard, Josh Gillies, Mark Beck, Liam Marrs, Josh Falkingham, Ed Wilczynski, David Ferguson, as teams have found ways to stop us in past years, changes to the team lineup would get the team back on track, this year better opponents have made it difficult for that winning balance to be found. The forum posts highlight it, playing Gillies and Thompson adds width, but exposed the back four, playing three central midfielders reduces the flair in the team, there has not been that perfect line up as there was last year, where substitutions at 60 minutes with fresh strikers (either Lee Gaskell or Graeme Armstrong) could add late goals and grab winners.

This season on the video I've seen (Thank you as always Kevin Luff),teams have been faster on the break, punishing defensive lapses, their quality goalscorers are not missing chances, everyone knows how hard it has been to get a clean sheet, now it’s requiring 2 goals or more to get a win. In past seasons we could give up a goal, even away from and come back, this year with better organized teams it is a lot harder to do.

This last comment might be controversial. It is great to get the new ground, back in Darlington.
However is playing on a bobbly rugby pitch with what appears to be longer grass working against the team? Four years at Heritage Park had the team familiar with the wind, the field conditions, now it seems that there are miskicks (David Syers had an ugly shot on Saturday from a ball that bounced 6 inches higher than expected at the last second, I’m not faulting Syers for the miskick as he attempting the shot). Until the new pitch is laid, and prepared for football on a Saturday, is this going to be an ongoing problem that makes winning at home harder. The team was 4th at New Year, 3 home losses already at Blackwell Meadows has hurt the playoff push. If the home form does not become more consistent, I see them finishing around 7th place. That’s a good season for a promoted team but we’re accustomed to playoffs or championships so it's frustrating for all Quakers fans.

Roll on Wednesday night, home to Altrincham.

[Darlo_Pete]

Welcome back Ginge, I've missed your updates and predictions.

[Undercovered]

Re: the pitch, it is crap, however both teams play on it and we're not being beaten by big, direct teams. In fact Curzon passed on it very well

[theoriginalfatcat]

Good post Ginge

[spen666]

Welcome back.

Your updates have been missed

[banktopp]

Great to have your in depth statistical analysis again.
I haven't given up on the play-offs yet. Our next three games are against the bottom three teams in the league. 9 points possibly and with Stockport playing Chorley at the weekend we could be right back in the mix.

[D_F_C]

very interesting to see Salford's form against the top 9. Great post

[QUAKERMAN2]

We have by far the easiest run in on paper and IF we can get a good run going and a bit of luck to go with it, we can finish in the top 5, particularly looking at all those 6 pointers involving teams around us.Quite confident.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

[Ginge01]

Thank you to everyone with their kind words in the replies.
Agreed, the pitch is the same for both teams, I hope any preparation that can be done will help us. I hope we click now, as we have done over the last few years when we would have our February or March wobble, it's been a hallmark of the club, Management and Players get it together, I'm hoping that this higher league can be overcome and we get fifth place.
I'm interested to see what the lineup will be with Leon Scott out on Wednesday, Terry Galbraith in, or possibly Josh Falkingham in and Liam Marrs to right back, certainly there are options.

[JE93]

Thank you to everyone with their kind words in the replies.
Agreed, the pitch is the same for both teams, I hope any preparation that can be done will help us. I hope we click now, as we have done over the last few years when we would have our February or March wobble, it's been a hallmark of the club, Management and Players get it together, I'm hoping that this higher league can be overcome and we get fifth place.
I'm interested to see what the lineup will be with Leon Scott out on Wednesday, Terry Galbraith in, or possibly Josh Falkingham in and Liam Marrs to right back, certainly there are options.

Great post as always Ginge. I think you're right, we're certainly not out of the running for a play-off place, but the form of our rivals is good at the minute and we will have to pick up if we don't want to lose pace. Stockport, Kidderminster and Salford are all bang in form. I think it will be between us, Chorley and Halifax to fight for the final place.

interesting comment about the change of personal following Scott's sending off. For me I'd be tempted to go 4-2-3-1 with Falkringham in a deep midfield role with Turnbull. Syers in the No.10 role and Thompson and Gillies wide with Beck through the centre.

Whatever team we pick think we need 9 points from our next 3 games if we're to seriously stay in the hunt.

[super_les_mcjannet]

In all honesty I don't think we will make the play-offs but the next 3 games will make or break any chances.

Scott has a 4 game ban starting on Saturday, question will be whether Gray drops him this Wednesday. Be good to see Gillies back to his early season form but not sure he will start can't see how you can drop Thompson or Cartman at the moment.

Either way I have enjoyed most of this season, last few months we have been a challenge more than ever before on the pitch. We seem to take one step forward and then two back, Scott sending off has probably cost us any real chance of that top 5 position.

[theoriginalfatcat]

Scott sending off has probably cost us any real chance of that top 5 position.

Bit harsh that Les.

It's just one incident across an incident packed season - and will cost us no more than say ...... Jameson's headbutt sending off for example.

[super_les_mcjannet]

Scott sending off has probably cost us any real chance of that top 5 position.

Bit harsh that Les.

It's just one incident across an incident packed season - and will cost us no more than say ...... Jameson's headbutt sending off for example.

Yeah it sounds like that when reading back, I just think the position we are in then we needed something on Saturday and down to 10 men cost us. Other things earlier in the season are the same but just judging it on that one game and the need to keep any momentum and pressure on the others then I think it's the point where we gave ourselves too much to do.

However win the next three on the bounce and it's a different situation. Whatever happens I have enjoyed the challenges of this season.

[al_quaker]

Agree with others - win the next 3 games, and we are far from out of the playoff mix. Then we have an out of form Brackley, and then the teams currently sitting 18th and 19th. If we can win the majority of the games this month (won't be easy, but it's far from impossible) then we will enter the final month of the season in with a shot of making the playoffs.

Most would have taken that at the start of the season, although it isn't quite how I saw the season going after Harrogate away!

[theoriginalfatcat]

Agree with others - win the next 3 games, and we are far from out of the playoff mix. Then we have an out of form Brackley, and then the teams currently sitting 18th and 19th. If we can win the majority of the games this month (won't be easy, but it's far from impossible) then we will enter the final month of the season in with a shot of making the playoffs.

Most would have taken that at the start of the season, although it isn't quite how I saw the season going after Harrogate away!

The last 5 years in the Conf North/ final playoff position

last year Boston 71 points
14/15 Guisely 70 points
13/14 Guisely 78 points
12/13 Halifax 75 points (Chester win the league with 107 points +71 goal diff)
11/12 Nuneaton 72 points

So we might need another 20 points from 11 games to reach the average of 73 points, which is a tall order.

6 wins,2 draws and 3 losses anyone?

[Darlo_Pete]

Agree with others - win the next 3 games, and we are far from out of the playoff mix. Then we have an out of form Brackley, and then the teams currently sitting 18th and 19th. If we can win the majority of the games this month (won't be easy, but it's far from impossible) then we will enter the final month of the season in with a shot of making the playoffs.

Most would have taken that at the start of the season, although it isn't quite how I saw the season going after Harrogate away!

The last 5 years in the Conf North/ final playoff position

last year Boston 71 points
14/15 Guisely 70 points
13/14 Guisely 78 points
12/13 Halifax 75 points (Chester win the league with 107 points +71 goal diff)
11/12 Nuneaton 72 points

So we might need another 20 points from 11 games to reach the average of 73 points, which is a tall order.

6 wins,2 draws and 3 losses anyone?

You may not need so many points as 73, as a lot of teams are in contention for the play-offs, whereas in previous seasons perhaps 5 or so teams have been in with a chance of the play-offs in some of those seasons.

[Vodka_Vic]

I think we'll need more than 75 points. To reach 75, Halifax would need 21 from 13, or a record of 6-3-4
Chorley would need 17 from 11 or a record of 5-2-4.

If you look at those records then both are on better form than that.

For us to reach 75 we'd need 22 from 11 or a record of 7-1-3.
If you look at the cold hard mathematics, then about 78 is more likely.

[theoriginalfatcat]

If you look at the cold hard mathematics, then about 78 is more likely.

Why?

I'm not so sure that "cold hard mathematics" is applicable here, as there are an unknown number of points up for grabs, I'm on about 1 point for a draw 3 for a win.

I still take a little positivity from the last 5 years league tables - which suggest that another 20 points could be enough.

The fact that Halifax have played 2 games less than us and are in great form is a worry though.