One for the crowd stattos

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Quakerz
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One for the crowd stattos

Post by Quakerz » Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:36 pm

Average at HP this season - 1,593

Average at BM this season - 1,872

So an uplift of just under 300 people per match after the move, not really as big an increase as I and many others thought was realistic.

A bit disappointing really, having said that I think that the crowds at HP were a bit better than expected this season after being around 1,100-1,200 or so in the previous couple of seasons. And an average of 1,872 at BM is still very good for this level.

I still think we can average 2,000 next season if we're playing well, although it's obviously not wise to project a budget based on that figure!
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Undercovered
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Undercovered » Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:41 pm

It's probably worth looking at the games that were played at BM versus HP as we had some of the bigger games at HP - Salford, Fylde, Stockport just off the top of my head. Probably only Halifax and FCUM at BM

I think in real terms we're probably another hundred better off at least. As mentioned at the forum the extra numbers seem to be U16's which is great for the future but unfortunately don't deliver as much revenue
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Robbie Painter
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Robbie Painter » Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:48 pm

I believe there is real potential to grow our crowds season on season for next few years.

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theoriginalfatcat
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by theoriginalfatcat » Sun Apr 23, 2017 1:39 pm

The last two games would have had bigger crowds if not for the bad news which came through.
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Yarblockos » Sun Apr 23, 2017 1:44 pm

Undercovered wrote:It's probably worth looking at the games that were played at BM versus HP as we had some of the bigger games at HP - Salford, Fylde, Stockport just off the top of my head. Probably only Halifax and FCUM at BM

I think in real terms we're probably another hundred better off at least. As mentioned at the forum the extra numbers seem to be U16's which is great for the future but unfortunately don't deliver as much revenue
The fact that we have so many U16's is good news, although I was a bit surprised as it doesn't seem to me to be that many more youngsters about. As a matter of interest, when you apply for a junior season ticket or go through a concessions entrance, do you have to prove your age?

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HarrytheQuaker
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One for the crowd stattos

Post by HarrytheQuaker » Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:19 pm

Quakerz wrote:Average at HP this season - 1,593

Average at BM this season - 1,872

So an uplift of just under 300 people per match after the move, not really as big an increase as I and many others thought was realistic.

A bit disappointing really, having said that I think that the crowds at HP were a bit better than expected this season after being around 1,100-1,200 or so in the previous couple of seasons. And an average of 1,872 at BM is still very good for this level.

I still think we can average 2,000 next season if we're playing well, although it's obviously not wise to project a budget based on that figure!
How many games at HP compared to BM Q??

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by tezza » Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:31 pm

Disreli springs to mind Q ...

Quakerz
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Quakerz » Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:24 pm

HarrytheQuaker wrote: How many games at HP compared to BM Q??
10 at HP
11 at BM
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Quaker0006
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Quaker0006 » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:07 pm

Even then i think the figure is inflated as you are using the return to Darlington game with 3000.

Without that game looking at 1750 odd average which i think is more a true reflection of where we are.

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theoriginalfatcat
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by theoriginalfatcat » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:16 pm

Quaker0006 wrote:Even then i think the figure is inflated as you are using the return to Darlington game with 3000.

Without that game looking at 1750 odd average which i think is more a true reflection of where we are.
See my point above. The last two games would have had much bigger attendances if our bubble hadn't of been burst. You can't have it both ways.
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Quaker0006 » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:19 pm

theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Quaker0006 wrote:Even then i think the figure is inflated as you are using the return to Darlington game with 3000.

Without that game looking at 1750 odd average which i think is more a true reflection of where we are.
See my point above. The last two games would have had much bigger attendances if our bubble hadn't of been burst. You can't have it both ways.
I get that. And its up the the post author what he writes. But if i was budgetting i wouldnt be using a one game to calculate an average. Unfortunately its abit lower than that in reality

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by super_les_mcjannet » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:25 pm

theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Quaker0006 wrote:Even then i think the figure is inflated as you are using the return to Darlington game with 3000.

Without that game looking at 1750 odd average which i think is more a true reflection of where we are.
See my point above. The last two games would have had much bigger attendances if our bubble hadn't of been burst. You can't have it both ways.
Throw a couple of night games in at BM which, the cold months and the more attractive opposition we generally had at HP (other than Halifax and FC Utd) On the other side you have the new ground bump etc. hard to judge really.

Imagine if nothing had gone wrong we were actually in the running for the playoffs and maybe just missed out for next season, would ST sales be up for next season. Sadly at the moment we don't know if we will own the club, have a new manager and most new players, the board has disintegrated currently. No idea what next season will bring.

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Henley » Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:28 pm

The board should budget for 1,500 average - end of.

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by HarryCharltonsCat » Sun Apr 23, 2017 10:36 pm

I think the floating fans came for the first two or three games at BM, realised they didn't like the grass roots experience and sodded off again.

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by lo36789 » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:45 am

I think there is some positive news beyond that and it isn't true that people came for the first couple of games then went away.

The upper quartile for the attendances at BM was 1,992 which was a good 600 higher than that at Heritage Park.

Another interesting one. On average our attendance at BM was 1.97x the attendance at our away game against the same opposition. At Heritage Park this was 1.37x. The games this was most notable for were Fylde, Stockport County, Kidderminster and Chorley. We would have almost certainly had higher attendances if we had been playing at BM.

55% of games at BM had an attendance less than 1500, this was 18% at Blackwell Meadows. 1500 would be an extremely conservative estimate, basing a budget on a 1750 average would still be quite safe.

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by HarryCharltonsCat » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:54 am

3000 Halifax, 2313 Nuneaton, only game since which exceeded 2000 was FC United, who brought 270 with them. Of course the floating fans haven't been back.

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by lo36789 » Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:38 am

HarryCharltonsCat wrote:3000 Halifax, 2313 Nuneaton, only game since which exceeded 2000 was FC United, who brought 270 with them. Of course the floating fans haven't been back.
As I say look at the teams we played. Had we played Fylde, Chorley, Stockport and Kidderminster at BM the data suggests we would have got over 2,000 for each of those games.

Obviously Nuneaton and Halifax were outliers, but as I say stats suggest we basically managed to get a 300-500 increase in attendance by being back in Darlington.

I don't think these are the floating fans who attended the Halifax game and never really had any intention of returning. I actually don't think we could ever get those fans - if we played at a level high enough to perk their interest they wouldn't pay the entrance fee.

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Nigel Batches Beard » Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:23 pm

so many angles here proving that you can make stats read any way you want them to :?

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Quakerz » Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:27 pm

Best just to stick to the averages as they are then - which is kind of the point of averages!
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Undercovered » Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:32 pm

Also depends on who's in the league next year. At Exeter they have a specific working group which forecasts attendances by game and Day/date to inform the budget
http://m.devonlive.com/exeter-city-supp ... story.html
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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by HarrytheQuaker » Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:05 pm

lo36789 wrote:
HarryCharltonsCat wrote:3000 Halifax, 2313 Nuneaton, only game since which exceeded 2000 was FC United, who brought 270 with them. Of course the floating fans haven't been back.
As I say look at the teams we played. Had we played Fylde, Chorley, Stockport and Kidderminster at BM the data suggests we would have got over 2,000 for each of those games.

Obviously Nuneaton and Halifax were outliers, but as I say stats suggest we basically managed to get a 300-500 increase in attendance by being back in Darlington.

I don't think these are the floating fans who attended the Halifax game and never really had any intention of returning. I actually don't think we could ever get those fans - if we played at a level high enough to perk their interest they wouldn't pay the entrance fee.
How many away fans travelled to HP then my recollection not many, Flyde travel light where ever they play..

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Re: One for the crowd stattos

Post by Quakerz » Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:14 pm

Yes but Fylde and Salford were top of the table clashes where the HOME fans came out in force - away fans are irrelevant in this case. Obviously even more home fans would have came out for these matches at BM.

How many away fans travelled to BM compared to HP then? Fuck all apart from Halifax and FCUM. And I'm sure Stockport brought a few to HP.

Not sure what point you're making TBH - it's best just to stick to the averages as they iron out the bumps - at both places.
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