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 Post subject: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:38 pm 
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Looking at the monthly group of fixtures wondered if we could get to 50 points.

I can see how it could be possible but obviously it relies on us having much better form than we have had recently, which we have the obvious doubts.

To get to 50 points we would have to go from an average of 1.07 points per game (30 points from 28) to 1.43 per game (20 points in 14 games), can we do it.

February (Can we get 4 points)
Sat 3rd Feb - Home - Blyth Spartans
Sat 10th Feb - Away - Bradford Park Avenue
Sat 17th Feb - Away - Brackley Town
Sat 24th Feb - Home - Kidderminster Harriers

March (Can we get 9 points)
Sat 3rd Mar - Away - Tamworth
Sat 10th Mar - Home - Curzon Athletic
Sat 17th Mar - Home - North Ferriby United
Sat 24th Mar - Away - AFC Telford
Sat 31st Mar - Home - Southport

April (Can we get 7 points)
Mon 2nd Apr - Away - Spennymoor Town
Sat 7th Apr - Home - Boston United
Sat 14th Apr - Away - FC United
Sat 21st Apr - Home - Nuneaton Town
Sat 28th Apr - Away - Stockport

Wonder if Ginge will turn up soon and complete a relegation run in each week. :thumbup:

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:45 pm 
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Agreed - it’s time to unleash the ginge!


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:34 pm 
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Football Web Pages are predicting Darlo will end up on 52 points

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/nati ... /predicted

Their predicted results are available if you click below the table

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:56 pm 
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It is clearly utterly bollocks. It predicts we will win every home game, most by 2-0. Have they seen our defence?


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:07 pm 
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I predicted 52 points back in December. But that was before Alfreton and Gainsborough.

I’ve tried to stay pragmatic about the way our fixtures have fallen. 50 is now a stretch unless our unbeaten run starts producing more wins. Because of the way our fixtures line up, I’ve always been quite calm about us racking up enough points to avoid the drop. But it’s probably going to be the last home game before we’re safe.

Assuming my guesstimations are there or thereabouts.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:57 pm 
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I said we needed a minimum of 4 points from the last two games after our failure at alfreton we've got them. I have us down as not getting a point in Feb but hope we can get 3 points as I fear we need them.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:29 pm 
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super_les_mcjannet wrote:
To get to 50 points we would have to go from an average of 1.07 points per game (30 points from 28) to 1.43 per game (20 points in 14 games), can we do it.


Dare I ask. What has our points per game been under TW?

At 1.07 per game we would finish on about 45 points which would easily be survival I would expect.

What if our points per game under TW were extrapolated over the remaining 14 games?

I think we have some decent games in April. I am not expecting Boston, FC United or Nuneaton to have a great deal to play for when we face them.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:32 pm 
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coles wrote:
I said we needed a minimum of 4 points from the last two games after our failure at alfreton we've got them. I have us down as not getting a point in Feb but hope we can get 3 points as I fear we need them.


Think we need to pick something up in the 4 games during Feb or we are putting ourselves under too much pressure with little confidence going into the run of games against teams in the bottom half.

I am going for 4 points so target 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats. I don't think as a squad we are as bad as our position but those players have little confidence. The current run could help turn it around, I guess you have to look for positives and hope they grow confidence and get better results.

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:34 pm 
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We need to win a decent proportion of our home games, and avoid defeat to fellow strugglers.

It is as simple as that.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:35 pm 
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lo36789 wrote:
super_les_mcjannet wrote:
To get to 50 points we would have to go from an average of 1.07 points per game (30 points from 28) to 1.43 per game (20 points in 14 games), can we do it.


Dare I ask. What has our points per game been under TW?

At 1.07 per game we would finish on about 45 points which would easily be survival I would expect.

What if our points per game under TW were extrapolated over the remaining 14 games?

I think we have some decent games in April. I am not expecting Boston, FC United or Nuneaton to have a great deal to play for when we face them.


Sadly at the moment it's 0.81 per game, the obvious defence of that is new manager who lost players and bringing in new players and a tough run of fixtures with a low in confidence team. However if TW doesn't increase that average points per game, we will go down.

If he only manages 0.81 then that gets us to 41.5 points round up to 42 and I think we could be in trouble.

For me we need something out of Feb setting us up for March when it's really make or break.

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:51 pm 
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There seems to be a general pessimism about our February. I don't think it's as bad as people make out.

Blyth are on a dreadful run, we've already beaten Bradford PA and we should be competitive against Kidderminster at home.

There's only Brackley away where I'd expect defeat (and knowing us, we'll probably go there and win).

Given TW said when he came he thought the side was capable of making the play-offs, we shouldn't be defeatist about tough-looking games.

I'd expect us to get at least five points from February.

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:20 pm 
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Darlogramps wrote:
Given TW said when he came he thought the side was capable of making the play-offs, we shouldn't be defeatist about tough-looking games.


And look where he's got us.

If that squad is capable of making the play offs then our current league position and his record since taking over leaves some serious questions to be answered about his ability as a manager.

I don't think we're good enough and these next 4 games for me will either prove me right or prove me wrong.

If a couple of defeats and a draw is a "dreadful run" I'd hate to think what we've been on since October. Blyth though are very similar to how we were last season they score plenty but also concede plenty and it's a local derby at home on the back of an away win we shouldn't need any motivation.

Kidderminster have hit a bit of form of late after a bad start to the season and as for BPA if I recall rightly we got a fair bit of good fortune with an own goal and then came very close to surrendering a 2-0 lead late on, won't be easy at theirs but in our position they're all tough games.

And a home game against us should be a formality for Brackley given the embarassing ease with which they dispatched us at home in November.

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:18 am 
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Looking at those fixtures the hardest months are going to be February and April. It's not impossible to get to 50 points, but we'll need a fair bit of luck along the way. There's nothing to say that we'll need 50 points to avoid the drop either.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:46 am 
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We had very poor performances from "good" players under the Gray part of the season. If confidence can continue to rise with the current hybrid team of new and old players the mistakes in defence and distribution should be reduced. Every game is vital and the team needs to battle and be positive every game to reap results. The Nuneaton factor helps the new players to bed in and could be the key factor to Darlo staying up. The much vaunted 12th man will also give our club an edge over others, but only with positive support.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:05 am 
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There's absolutely no reason for us to not be getting anything from those home games, or from BPA. I'll grant, i'm not expecting anything from Brackley, but the rest are fair game.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:54 pm 
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H1987 wrote:
There's absolutely no reason for us to not be getting anything from those home games, or from BPA. I'll grant, i'm not expecting anything from Brackley, but the rest are fair game.
I agree. We need to get out of this mindset that we can only expect points from the very worst teams.

We have a squad of capable players including one of the best strikers in the league. We've beaten the top two this season so we should be able to pick up points against mid-table sides at least.

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:07 pm 
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Spyman wrote:
We need to get out of this mindset that we can only expect points from the very worst teams.



Couldn’t agree more. We’ve taken almost as many points off the current top 10 (14 pts from a possible 42) as against teams currently in the bottom half (16 pts from a possible 42).


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:48 pm 
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I've not seen a team in our league this year where I've thought wow they are brilliant. The best team we've played this year is probably South Shields.

Even Brackley who did us over at our place weren't amazing. Just worked hard and we gave them too much for free.

Salford, York & Harrogate looked average I'd say.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:56 pm 
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D_F_C wrote:
I've not seen a team in our league this year where I've thought wow they are brilliant. The best team we've played this year is probably South Shields.

Even Brackley who did us over at our place weren't amazing. Just worked hard and we gave them too much for free.

Salford, York & Harrogate looked average I'd say.



Brackley are probably best team I have seen this season. Not outstanding skill, but well organised and knew what they were doing, and did it well

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:59 pm 
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spen666 wrote:
D_F_C wrote:
I've not seen a team in our league this year where I've thought wow they are brilliant. The best team we've played this year is probably South Shields.

Even Brackley who did us over at our place weren't amazing. Just worked hard and we gave them too much for free.

Salford, York & Harrogate looked average I'd say.



Brackley are probably best team I have seen this season. Not outstanding skill, but well organised and knew what they were doing, and did it well


Yes I think that's a decent description of them. A proper team


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:39 am 
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D_F_C wrote:
I've not seen a team in our league this year where I've thought wow they are brilliant. The best team we've played this year is probably South Shields.

Even Brackley who did us over at our place weren't amazing. Just worked hard and we gave them too much for free.

Salford, York & Harrogate looked average I'd say.
Meanwhile opposition fans have been watching us and thinking "Bloody hell, we're quaking in our boots at the thought of playing Darlington."

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:12 am 
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Looking at stats from the last few seasons:

Season 16/17 bottom 3 clubs got 21, 29, 35 pts total 85
15/16 32, 38, 46 116
13/14 28, 32, 37 97
12/13 7, 22, 44 73

(14/15 was a 40 game season, 2 teams relegated- presumably a team droppd out during season)

Big variation in points required to survive. 50 would seem to (almost) guarantee survival, but could be less.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:21 pm 
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As more teams are involved in the shake up, the points total needed to stay up is likely to be higher. Only North Ferriby are adrift.


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:49 pm 
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Darlogramps wrote:
D_F_C wrote:
I've not seen a team in our league this year where I've thought wow they are brilliant. The best team we've played this year is probably South Shields.

Even Brackley who did us over at our place weren't amazing. Just worked hard and we gave them too much for free.

Salford, York & Harrogate looked average I'd say.
Meanwhile opposition fans have been watching us and thinking "Bloody hell, we're quaking in our boots at the thought of playing Darlington."


Meaning that there's nowt to be scared of. We should be picking up points from top teams as well as bottom


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:15 pm 
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People say that in every division every season though (excluding the Premier League), it's almost cliched. Certainly nothing new.

The analysis is also a bit simplistic, if you're only coming to that judgement on the basis of seeing a side once or twice.

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:08 pm 
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Darlogramps wrote:
People say that in every division every season though (excluding the Premier League), it's almost cliched. Certainly nothing new.

The analysis is also a bit simplistic, if you're only coming to that judgement on the basis of seeing a side once or twice.


But looking at it from a different perspective, I’d be more worried if every team looked unbeatable


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:25 am 
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But not every team would look unbeatable in their one or two games against us. That's just not going to be feasible. Even in our woeful 09/10 season, we looked like we could beat sides.

Nor is every side going to play at their 100% best against us. Again, it just doesn't happen in a 40+ game season.

I understand the point you're making, but the logic you're using is flawed and doesn't make sense.

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:50 pm 
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so what you're saying is the only person who has an opinion that counts is someone who has watched EVERY single National League North game to see how they've played. On that basis no one has a worthwhile opinion


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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:56 pm 
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D_F_C wrote:
so what you're saying is the only person who has an opinion that counts is someone who has watched EVERY single National League North game to see how they've played. On that basis no one has a worthwhile opinion
That's not what I'm saying at all, and you know fine well it's not. That's a deliberate strawman argument.

All I'm saying is I don't see how you can declare that all sides in the division are nothing to be worried about, because you're making a subjective judgement based on seeing a side once, perhaps twice, perhaps not at all.

I've not said you can't pass judgement. But you at least have to recognise that coming to a judgement based on seeing a team once is questionable.

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 Post subject: Re: 50 points
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:22 pm 
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Darlogramps wrote:
But not every team would look unbeatable in their one or two games against us. That's just not going to be feasible. Even in our woeful 09/10 season, we looked like we could beat sides.


The 09/10 season. What a shocker! There were a couple of evening games at that time when I very nearly didn't remove myself from the comforts of The Tawny Owl.

I reckon the team we field this coming Saturday would beat them - would beat the half baked team we sent out at the end of that dreadful season anyway.

Thinking about it - I had a little catchphrase I used to say while walking up to the ground, it was " Who's beating Darlo today?"

The memories come flooding back :thumbdown:

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