Darlo Uncovered

Neil Johnson wrote:I suppose getting another 14 points is pretty nailed down now

I hope the players aren't as complacent as that, Neil.

So after taking 9 points when I thought a good return could have been 4 we are well on track after February.

February (Can we get 4 points) We went and got 9
Sat 3rd Feb - Home - Blyth Spartans Win 3 points
Sat 10th Feb - Away - Bradford Park Avenue Win 3 points
Sat 17th Feb - Away - Brackley Town Loss 0 points
Sat 24th Feb - Home - Kidderminster Harriers Win 3 points

So will leave the expected points predictions of 9 from March and 7 from April which would take us to a finish of 55 points.

Our next four games are currently in 19th, 17th, 22nd & 20th position, this run of games has the opportunity to set us up for a mid-table position or put us right into the struggle.

We only have Spenny & Stockport in the top 10 to play, both away in April. Will await Ginge's update in the morning

March (Can we get 9 points)
Sat 3rd Mar - Away - Tamworth
Sat 10th Mar - Home - Curzon Athletic
Sat 17th Mar - Home - North Ferriby United
Sat 24th Mar - Away - AFC Telford
Sat 31st Mar - Home - Southport

April (Can we get 7 points)
Mon 2nd Apr - Away - Spennymoor Town
Sat 7th Apr - Home - Boston United
Sat 14th Apr - Away - FC United
Sat 21st Apr - Home - Nuneaton Town
Sat 28th Apr - Away - Stockport

My guess is that Ginge will be predicting Gainsborough and Tamworth for the drop now.
I think Telford will be OK. They've signed a few players on loan, but FCUM and Tamworth are just plunging, both after getting rid of key centre forwards.
Having said that, results have been so unpredictable recently that just when you think a team is in real trouble, they suddenly spring into life (Nuneaton, Southport, Curzon, Darlington, Boston and Alfreton). And where did Leamington's 2 wins come from? We've done really well to be where we are, but even with 4 wins out of 5 we're still not comfortable. It just shows you how deep in the mire we really were.

Vodka_Vic wrote:My guess is that Ginge will be predicting Gainsborough and Tamworth for the drop now.
I think Telford will be OK. They've signed a few players on loan, but FCUM and Tamworth are just plunging, both after getting rid of key centre forwards.
Having said that, results have been so unpredictable recently that just when you think a team is in real trouble, they suddenly spring into life (Nuneaton, Southport, Curzon, Darlington, Boston and Alfreton). And where did Leamington's 2 wins come from? We've done really well to be where we are, but even with 4 wins out of 5 we're still not comfortable. It just shows you how deep in the mire we really were.

I still think that 50pts will not be enough, I think this season has the makings of one team being slightly unlucky. It seems that at the moment the results are all over the place and the form table, bar say Harrogate and North Ferriby, is probably not a fair reflection of current standings. This will in turn drag more teams into it and possibly after today's results the relegation fight has probably gained 2 more teams in Stockport and Bradford PA. Considering that should Telford pick up a win in their game in hand over them they will only be 6 and 7pts off those.

Got to be pleased picking up 9pts from 12pts through February but geez if we hadn't we'd be staring right down the barrel! Hopefully, we can pick up 10pts in March we may just leave us needing 4 or so in April? We're on a good run of form but can not be complacent, this is still going to go down to the wire for us!

real_darlo_85 wrote:

Vodka_Vic wrote:My guess is that Ginge will be predicting Gainsborough and Tamworth for the drop now.
I think Telford will be OK. They've signed a few players on loan, but FCUM and Tamworth are just plunging, both after getting rid of key centre forwards.
Having said that, results have been so unpredictable recently that just when you think a team is in real trouble, they suddenly spring into life (Nuneaton, Southport, Curzon, Darlington, Boston and Alfreton). And where did Leamington's 2 wins come from? We've done really well to be where we are, but even with 4 wins out of 5 we're still not comfortable. It just shows you how deep in the mire we really were.

I still think that 50pts will not be enough, I think this season has the makings of one team being slightly unlucky. It seems that at the moment the results are all over the place and the form table, bar say Harrogate and North Ferriby, is probably not a fair reflection of current standings. This will in turn drag more teams into it and possibly after today's results the relegation fight has probably gained 2 more teams in Stockport and Bradford PA. Considering that should Telford pick up a win in their game in hand over them they will only be 6 and 7pts off those.

Got to be pleased picking up 9pts from 12pts through February but geez if we hadn't we'd be staring right down the barrel! Hopefully, we can pick up 10pts in March we may just leave us needing 4 or so in April? We're on a good run of form but can not be complacent, this is still going to go down to the wire for us!

Just for a bit of daft and wondering if your worries are justified I looked at current form (over the last 10 games) and then went through the fixtures on Ginge's comprehensive assessment post. Very unscientific, but where there was a large points difference on current form I assumed the form team would win. Where the current form was close I have assumed a draw, and where an in between difference, I gave weight to the home side. I did this only for the teams included in Ginge's assessment so it does not allow for other matches against top half teams, but assuming that the bottom half teams would gather fewer, if any points against these sides, I have kept it simple and excluded them.

Obviously any "form" review such as this may be way out as many recent results have show, but as I said this was a bit of daft, and also an attempt to look at the likely outcomes on the basis that with many of the bottom half having to play each other not all the teams down there can achieve their maximum points

So how did it come out? These are the very rough and ready points totals after all teams in the bottom half look if their good or bad form remained the same as it has over the previous 10 games.

Nuneaton 53
Southport 52
Darlo 52
FC United 48
Alfreton 43
Leamington 42
Curzon Ashton 40
Tamworth 39
Telford 37
Gainsbrough 34
North Ferriby 13

As mentioned this is not an in depth review but what I think it does indicate is that with so many games taking place between the lower end teams that the points share out may well be a lot lower than you might think and that a figure lower than 50 points should be more than enough for survival. I still think that previous seasons totals are probably the best guide and as no team has gone down with 48 points I think that this is the true target for Darlo to aim at.

Hi,
I added onto the end of my Bottom 11 post this week, looking at all the games played between the teams. I tried to not fit in results I like, but a feel for how teams have played, more so in February. I give everyone a 1-0 win or 0-0 draw, trying to predict the size of wins is impossible. Deciding on Alfreton vs Telford, Leamington vs FCUM, I gave them advantage home team, so 1-0. It's possible the way that crazy results have been taking place this month, they could just as easily be 0-1, predicting the future is hard. The two home wins have FCUM & Leamington keeping the points gap over Telford who then have to take more points off the top half of the table teams. If FCUM and Tamworth remain winless the rest of the season, one of them goes down, but they both have a Gainsborough and North Ferriby game to play so a chance to get 6 valuable points means Telford would need to match it with 9 (they have a current 3 point deficit), and then there are all the other games to play, so who knows who goes down today, it's fun trying to predict it out to the end of the season.

Worcester went down with 34 points last season. Darlo have 39 points in the bag and a better goal average than most. With 10 games to go we are effectively 6 points above the drop zone. With us being joint second in 5 game form terms. Injuries apart, it shouldn't be too much of danger of falling into the drop zone.

The extended play off experiment seems to have improved the level of competition with many clubs improving their squads to grab a place in the play offs.

We may well have 10 pleasurable games to enjoy and then be doing calcs for reaching 7th place. Being more realistic we can maybe consolidate our position, finishing in the top ten and then start to get excited about next season.

It's very possible for us to reach the top 10, but as Curzon Ashton, FCUM and Tamworth found this week, we did after the 0-3 at Brackley the week before, a drop of 3-4 places from a loss or no game is happening for someone almost weekly. Grinding out more wins and keeping the gap over the 20th placed team (currently Telford) still has to be our focus, the bonus is rising up the table into the top half.

I've always thought we'd turn it round but we are nowhere near safe yet - some posters on here are getting a little carried away, Mr N.Johnson to name but one

theoriginalfatcat wrote:I've always thought we'd turn it round but we are nowhere near safe yet - some posters on here are getting a little carried away, Mr N.Johnson to name but one

Big month coming up for us, be great to have a similar run as February. A lot of positives at the moment, we look a threat up front, defensively we look tighter and midfield seem to have a spark as well.

New seats in for next home game and quite a positive feel all round, hopefully it continues because our injury list isn't helping or is in terms of opportunities for players..

Brown, Hunter, Collins, O'Hanlon, Caton, Portas with Burgess and Marrs out on loan.

If we win 4 of our next 5, we'll be not far off a playoff place.

Darlo_Pete wrote:If we win 4 of our next 5, we'll be not far off a playoff place.

Last season, the team in 7th place had 73 points - Darlo would have to win all remaining 10 games to get to 69.

Henley wrote:

Darlo_Pete wrote:If we win 4 of our next 5, we'll be not far off a playoff place.

Last season, the team in 7th place had 73 points - Darlo would have to win all remaining 10 games to get to 69.

But last season the playoffs just meant the top 5, this season will involve the top 7.

Darlo_Pete wrote:

Henley wrote:

Darlo_Pete wrote:If we win 4 of our next 5, we'll be not far off a playoff place.

Last season, the team in 7th place had 73 points - Darlo would have to win all remaining 10 games to get to 69.

But last season the playoffs just meant the top 5, this season will involve the top 7.

Did you read what I typed?

Henley wrote:

Darlo_Pete wrote:

Henley wrote:

Darlo_Pete wrote:If we win 4 of our next 5, we'll be not far off a playoff place.

Last season, the team in 7th place had 73 points - Darlo would have to win all remaining 10 games to get to 69.

But last season the playoffs just meant the top 5, this season will involve the top 7.

Did you read what I typed?

Oops sorry, I misread it.

We are too far away to nab a place in the playoffs, even with excellent form hereon, but I'd simply like to see a strong top-half finish that leads to a strong start next season, when it will matter most.

imagine if Stockport got relegated that would be unreal, not gonna happen tho!

bertbanger wrote:imagine if Stockport got relegated that would be unreal, not gonna happen tho!

Almost as bad as Salford not getting promoted.

Beano wrote:We are too far away to nab a place in the playoffs, even with excellent form hereon, but I'd simply like to see a strong top-half finish that leads to a strong start next season, when it will matter most.

and a storming finish will encourage more to contribute to the Boost the Budget.

Vodka_Vic wrote:

Beano wrote:We are too far away to nab a place in the playoffs, even with excellent form hereon, but I'd simply like to see a strong top-half finish that leads to a strong start next season, when it will matter most.

and a storming finish will encourage more to contribute to the Boost the Budget.

Must admit Adam I feel Tommy would spend the boost the budget money far more sensibly than our previous manager did without a shadow of doubt.

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So in 7 games we have taken 16 points, leaving us needing only 4 more points to hit 50. Looks like all those worries are far away now.

Reckon we should be getting another 11 points which would take us to 57, maybe sneaking something more here and there would be great.

We need to be targeting a top half finish now and keep the momentum going into the summer.

February (Can we get 4 points) We went and got 9
Sat 3rd Feb - Home - Blyth Spartans Win 3 points
Sat 10th Feb - Away - Bradford Park Avenue Win 3 points
Sat 17th Feb - Away - Brackley Town Loss 0 points
Sat 24th Feb - Home - Kidderminster Harriers Win 3 points

March (Can we get 9 points) We have 7 already
Sat 10th Mar - Home - Curzon Athletic Win 3 points
Tue 13th Mar - Away - Tamworth Draw 1 point
Sat 17th Mar - Home - North Ferriby United Win 3 points
Sat 24th Mar - Away - AFC Telford
Sat 31st Mar - Home - Southport

April (Can we get 7 points)
Mon 2nd Apr - Away - Spennymoor Town
Sat 7th Apr - Home - Boston United
Sat 14th Apr - Away - FC United
Sat 21st Apr - Home - Nuneaton Town
Sat 28th Apr - Away - Stockport

There is no reason why we can't win at least 5 of those remaining games.

Probably the toughest game looks like Southport just now.

At Spennymoor and at Stockport will be tough also

Southport are on a great run since spending big in January to get out of the dogfight however I’d back us to beat anyone at home at the moment so Spennymoor will be the toughest test

Really looking forward to Easter Monday and Spennymoor. Before the match people are already talking about going. I'd imagine we'll outnumber the home suport by some margin, if it isn't made all ticket.

divas wrote:Southport are on a great run since spending big in January to get out of the dogfight however I’d back us to beat anyone at home at the moment so Spennymoor will be the toughest test

Spennymoor is no tough test because they always s*** themselves when they play us.

They may be a better team this season, but for me that's the most nailed on 3 points out of our remaining matches.

Standard 0-2 to Darlo.

Darlo_Pete wrote:Really looking forward to Easter Monday and Spennymoor. Before the match people are already talking about going. I'd imagine we'll outnumber the home suport by some margin, if it isn't made all ticket.

Cannot wait for this one, always a cracking atmosphere with probably 900-1000 Darlo fans there.Spenny looked a good side the other night at BM and Styche against Tait could be tasty, but as Quakerz said, they always seem to s..t themselves when they play us at their place so I will go for a win also.

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I would have said they were the better team at our place. I have a confidence in my team, but not an over confidence. Spenny are up there for a reason and are not to be dismissed. If there's a time over the last 5/6 years where we have to lose to spenny, then I would take this year.

biccynana wrote:

Neil Johnson wrote:I suppose getting another 14 points is pretty nailed down now

I hope the players aren't as complacent as that, Neil.

Titter......