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PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:35 am 
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This is my first posting for 2017/18.
A lot of happened since the end of last season, Martin Gray left, as did many players, among them Mark Beck, David Ferguson, Adam Bartlett. Tommy Wright has taken over, new players are now appearing to find cohesion with each other as the team is moving away from the bottom three.
How to evaluate the bottom 10, North Ferriby with 14 games to go need 10 wins essentially to escape, they will go down as so far 1 win in 28 games has been a bad season for them, the question is who will be the two teams to join them.

Last season, when we (Darlington) were in the top 5, I looked at games this way, with this expectation.
Home to the top 7, 60% chance of winning, 30% draw, 10% loss
Home to 8-12, 80%, 15%, 5%
Home to 13-22. 90% 10%, 0%

Away to the top 7, 30% chance of winning, 40% draw, 30% loss
Away to 8-12, 50%, 25%, 25%
Away to 13-22. 70% 20%, 10%

This season, we are what are our record says we are, whether we like it or not we are currently a bottom 10 team, improving from where we were 4 games ago. So how do I look at teams to play, it’s a different perspective now;

Home to the top 7, 20% chance of winning, 30% draw, 50% loss
Home to 8-12, 30%, 30%, 40%
Home to 13-22. 40% 40%, 20%

Away to the top 7, 5% chance of winning, 20% draw, 75% loss
Away to 8-12, 10%, 40%, 50%
Away to 13-22. 30% 35%, 35%

As the wins and points come in and we pull away from the bottom, confidence should grow, expectations should go, and being a 12th-14th place team, we should expect better results. And I might retire this season’s blog early!!!

In past seasons when we were at the top, generally if we had played 3 extra games, and had 3 extra points, it was safer to assume that the chasing team would overtake us in the table, now that we’re in the bottom half, I’d take the points. So Curzon Ashton have 3 games in hand, but 3 points back, let’s see if Curzon Ashton can get 3+ points, as our goal difference is superior (-5 to -11), they could go 1-0-2, but would need to win by a very large margin to take away our advantage. Three draws does not change their goal difference. The 3-0 win over Blyth was huge for us in many ways, one being from an improving goal difference perspective, we have the second best goal difference (-5) in the bottom 10.

It was also true in past seasons when teams in the promotion chase played each other, and we would be going for a win, we’d be happy with other teams dropping points (both teams could not win), now it’s the opposite, if we did not win, then there can be a point each for both teams, or one team gets that valuable 3 points, the pressure is on us to get point(s) every week in this relegation battle. Yesterday’s win was so big, FCUM got 0 points, Leamington could not get 3 from North Ferriby. The table would have looked different if the Curzon P-P Gainsborough and Southport P-P Telford games were played but it was good to rise to 15th place. Points won are more valuable than games in hand at the bottom where teams are averaging just over a point a game.

A team that has a lot of games against other teams at the bottom has a better chance of pulling away, assuming they don't lose the majority of them, everyone is searching for that rich vein of form that has been more often than not elusive this season. It can be argued Darlington is that team right now, in form, fighting back from 2-1 down last week at Leamington to win in injury time, and a winning performance over Blyth today, to have two wins and two draws in the last four games is the consistency bottom 10 teams are looking for.

North Ferriby can be a spoiler as they were today, taking away valuable points from teams scrambling away from the bottom. Their opponent Leamington failed to win against two lowly teams in two weeks, 0 points with Darlington (we’re happy about that), 1 with North Ferriby so teams that struggle with bottom teams are less likely to beat higher up the table teams.


Bottom 10 teams after today’s games, Sat Feb 03rd 2018

DARLINGTON....... 3-0 Blyth
CURZON ASHTON P-P GAINSBOROUGH
Harrogate............ P-P ALFRETON
NORTH FERRIBY... 1-1 LEAMINGTON
NUNEATON.......... 1-0 FC UTD of MAN
SOUTHPORT......... P-P TELFORD

The Top 10 in the Vanarama National League North, Tue Apr 11th 2017 (Gloucester added)
............................ Pd .W D L..W D L....F..A....GD...Pts
13. FCUM............. 29.. 9 1 4.. 1 5 .9 45 54.. -9.. 36
14. Alfreton.......... 28.. 5 2 7.. 5 1 .8 45 46.. -1.. 33
15. Darlington ..... 29.. 6 4 5.. 2 5 .7 40 45.. -5.. 33
16. Nuneaton....... 28.. 7 3 5.. 2 3 .8 35 44.. -9.. 33
17. Leamington.... 29.. 4 3 7.. 4 5 .6 40 47.. -7.. 32
18. Southport....... 28.. 5 4 5.. 3 4 .7 37 54 -17.. 32
19. Gainsborough. 27.. 7 1 6.. 2 3 .8 32 49 -17.. 31
20. Curzon Ashton 26.. 5 5 3.. 2 4 .7 30 41 -11.. 30
21. Telford............. 25.. 3 2 7.. 5 1 .7 33 46 -13.. 27
22. North Ferriby... 28.. 0 4 11 1 2 10 14 71 -57... 9

My picks to go down, as of today, Leamington, Telford and North Ferriby.
Leamington have only 4 easier games to play, Telford need to show they can win their home games (only 3 so far)


Bottom 10 teams this week

FC Utd of Man; 6 games against common bottom 10 opponents; 24/02 Telford (A), 03/03 Gainsborough (H), 31/03 Leamington (A), 14/04 Darlington (H), 21/04 Alfreton (A), 28/04 North Ferriby
Nuneaton 1-0 FC Utd of Man; FCUM were unable to get any points away at lowly Nuneaton who move to within 3 points of them

Alfreton; 5 games; 03/03 Telford (H), 24/03 Southport (A), 30/03 Nuneaton (H) Fri, 02/04 Curzon (A), 21/04 FCUM (H)
Harrogate P-P Alfreton; No game, Darlington and Nuneaton both catch Alfreton on 33 points, who remain 3 points above Curzon in 20th place.

Darlington; 6 games; 10/03 Curzon (H), 17/03 North Ferriby (H), 24/03 Telford (A), 31/03 Southport (H), 14/04 FCUM (A), 21/04 Nuneaton (H)
Darlington 3-0 Blyth; A huge win today for Darlington, two straight wins lifts them to 15th place, the second best goal difference in the bottom 10 is also important, as is 4 remaining home games against bottom 10 opponents, 2 wins and 2 draws would be a reasonable target, even 3 wins and a draw is possible with the improving form. A concern is a lot of away games against stronger opponents.

Nuneaton; 7 games; 27/02 Telford (A), 03/03 Curzon (A), 10/03 North Ferriby, (H)
17/03 Leamington (A), 30/03 Alfreton (A) Fri, 07/04 Southport (A), 21/04 Darlington (A)
Nuneaton 1-0 FC Utd of Man; A first half goal for Nuneaton was enough to get the three points, pulling the away from the bottom 3. If Nuneaton can get on a streak, with 6 away games against lowly opponents and a home game with North Ferriby, they should be safe. They only have two tougher away games left to play.

Leamington; 4 games; 17/03 Nuneaton (H), 31/03 FCUM (H), 02/04 Telford (A), 14/04 Curzon (H)
North Ferriby 1-1 Leamington, Leamington fail to find a winner at bottom place North Ferriby, Darlington and Nuneaton move above them.

Southport; 7 games; 10/02 Gainsborough (A), 17/02 North Ferriby (A), 24/02 Curzon (H), 24/03 Alfreton (H), 31/03 Darlington (A), 07/04 Nuneaton (H), TBA Telford (H)
Southport P-P Telford, with 7 bottom 10 games left, 4 at home as well as North Ferriby (A), Southport have a good chance to move up the table.

Gainsborough; (5 games); 10/02 Southport (H), 03/03 FCUM (A), 02/04 North Ferriby (A), 21/04 Telford (A), TBA Curzon (A)
Curzon Ashton P-P Gainsborough, not many weaker opponents (only 1 home game) left for Gainsborough who had won the last two games before Saturdays postponement.

Curzon Ashton; (7 games); 13/02 Telford (A), 24/02 Southport (H), 03/03 Nuneaton (H), 10/03 02/04 Alfreton (H), Darlington (A), 14/04 Leamington (A), TBA Gainsborough (H)
Curzon Ashton P-P Gainsborough An important game postponed for both teams, leaving Curzon now 3rd bottom in 20th place, with 4 home games against the bottom 10, they have a chance to pull free.

Telford; (9 games); 10/02 North Ferriby (H), 13/02 Curzon (H), 24/02 FCUM (H), 27/02 Nuneaton (H),
03/03 Alfreton (A), 24/03 Darlington (H), 02/04 Leamington (H), 21/04 Gainsborough (H), TBA Southport (A)
Southport P-P Telford, With 9 bottom 10 games to play, 7 at home, 4 in February, Telford could pull themselves out of 21st position with a few home wins, they have to show this month they can win them.

North Ferriby; (6 games); 10/02 Telford (A), 17/02 Southport (H), 10/03 Nuneaton (A), 17/03 Darlington (A), 02/04 Gainsborough (H), 28/04 FCUM (A)
North Ferriby 1-1 Leamington; A rare point for North Ferriby who score after two mins, Leamington equalised after 13 mins

Bottom 10 outstanding games against their opponents

FCUM (6 games)
24/02 Telford (A)
03/03 Gainsborough (H)
31/03 Leamington (A)
14/04 Darlington (H)
21/04 Alfreton (A)
28/04 North Ferriby

Alfreton (5 games)
03/03 Telford (H)
24/03 Southport (A)
30/03 Nuneaton (H) Fri
02/04 Curzon (A)
21/04 FCUM (H)

Darlington (6 games)
10/03 Curzon (H)
17/03 North Ferriby (H)
24/03 Telford (A)
31/03 Southport (H)
14/04 FCUM (A)
21/04 Nuneaton (H)

Nuneaton (7 games)
27/02 Telford (A)
03/03 Curzon (A)
10/03 North Ferriby (H)
17/03 Leamington (A)
30/03 Alfreton (A) Fri
07/04 Southport (A)
21/04 Darlington (A)

Leamington (4 games)
17/03 Nuneaton (H)
31/03 FCUM (H)
02/04 Telford (A)
14/04 Curzon (H)

Southport (7 games)
10/02 Gainsborough (A)
17/02 North Ferriby (A)
24/02 Curzon (H)
24/03 Alfreton (H)
31/03 Darlington (A)
07/04 Nuneaton (H)
TBA… Telford(H)

Gainsborough (5 games)
10/02 Southport (H)
03/03 FCUM (A)
02/04 North Ferriby (A)
21/04 Telford (A)
TBA… Curzon (A)

Curzon Ashton (7 games)
13/02 Telford (A)
24/02 Southport (A)
03/03 Nuneaton (H)
10/03 Darlington (A)
02/04 Alfreton (H)
14/04 Leamington (A)
TBA… Gainsborough (H)

Telford (9 games)
10/02 North Ferriby (H)
13/02 Curzon (H)
24/02 FCUM (H)
27/02 Nuneaton (H)
03/03 Alfreton (A)
24/03 Darlington (H)
02/04 Leamington (H)
21/04 Gainsborough (H)
TBA…. Southport (A)

North Ferriby(6 games)
10/02 Telford (A)
17/02 Southport (H)
10/03 Nuneaton (A)
17/03 Darlington (A)
02/04 Gainsborough (H)
28/04 FCUM (A)


This week’s Bottom 10 games

05/02 Monday
Bradford............ vs GAINSBOROUGH
CURZON............. vs Kidderminster

09/02 Friday
FC UTD MAN....... vs Chorley

15/04 Saturday
Bradford............ vs DARLINGTON (3.00)
ALFRETON......... vs Tamworth
Boston.............. vs CURZON ASHTON
GAINSBOROUGH vs SOUTHPORT
LEAMINGTON….. vs Harrogate
Stockport.......... vs NUNEATON
TELFORD........... vs NORTH FERRIBY


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:30 am 
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Wonderful to have you back!
Made my morning breakfast. Enjoy yours in a few hours time.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:33 am 
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WOW Ginge, you must have been saving that up for a while, but definitely a very worthwhile summary. It may take me all week to digest these facts! Hope you can keep it up for the rest of the run-in, thanks :clap:


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:42 am 
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Brilliant. As a maths teacher I love your logic.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:19 am 
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Fantastic read, it's great to have all the facts. Out of interest have you ever analised in previous seasons you're first post on a season, with how it actually ended up?


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:51 am 
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Great post Ginge :thumbup:

_________________
Mr Singh said this " I'm not expecting to get back any of the money I've already put in, I'm prepared to write it off for the future of the club. I'm not hanging in to make any kind of financial gain in the short or long term - if someone was prepared to come in and take the club off my hands, I'd be more than willing to discuss it"

Tamworth matchday programme 26 Nov 2011


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:29 pm 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
....out of interest have you ever analised......


good grief! :o bit personal Pete??!


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:07 pm 
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Looking at those fixtures then Leamington and Gainsborough look favourites to go down in my view, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Alfreton dragged back down.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:16 am 
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jjljks wrote:
WOW Ginge, you must have been saving that up for a while, but definitely a very worthwhile summary. It may take me all week to digest these facts! Hope you can keep it up for the rest of the run-in, thanks :clap:


Thanks for your reply, I plan to keep it going until the end of the season, it took me about 4-6 hours from scratch, the first one of each season is the hardest, there were a couple of changes along the way before I got down to completing it. A normal Saturday update is 1-2 hours.
I thought about starting a few weeks ago but the 1-2 Salford and York results would have released the pitchforks and torches brigade if I'd said we look like a 20th or 21st season end finisher. Nobody wants that analysis, they can see it with their own eyes. We appear now more talented than 20th or 21st but if a team keeps finding a way to screw up games, that's what they become. Now there's renewed optimism that we can pull away with a 4 game unbeaten run, but a lot of games to be played. Stay tuned.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am 
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ron-harbertson-hero wrote:
Brilliant. As a maths teacher I love your logic.


Thank you, I try to use logic, and reasoned thought, not 'we're brilliant, they are all crap', that does not work when we're lowly in the table. Congratulations on being a moulder of young minds, I'll assuming you've got 11-16 year olds.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:48 am 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
Fantastic read, it's great to have all the facts. Out of interest have you ever analised in previous seasons you're first post on a season, with how it actually ended up?


Thanks Darlo_Pete, I prefer analysing. LoL, from past years I think I did reasonably well. Last year I thought there were times we'd miss a playoff place, but the team came together, and but for a F.A. rule and some seats......

When I did the 2013/14 season, I noticed in January the head to head for the Top 7
.........................................Home....Away
...........Team..............Pd | W D L | W D L | W D L|..F .A ..Diff | Pts
1 Curzon Ashton.........5 | 1 0 0 .| 4 0 0 .| 5 0 0 | 16 .6 ..10 | 15
2 Warrington Town.....4 | 1 0 0 .| 2 0 1 .| 3 0 1 | ..8 .2 ....7 |.. 9
3 Farsley FC................5 | 2 1 0 .| 1 1 0 .| 3 2 0 | 11 .6 ....5 | 11
4 Darlington 1883.......4 | 1 1 0 .| 2 0 0 .| 3 1 0 | 13 .4 ....9 | 10
5 Bamber Bridge.........2 | 0 0 1 .| 1 0 0 .| 1 0 1 | ..3 .3 ....0 |.. 3
6 Lancaster City..........3 | 2 1 0 .| 0 0 0 .| 2 1 0 | ..6 .4 ....2 |.. 7
7 Ramsbottom United 4 | 3 0 0 .| 1 0 0 .| 4 0 0 | 20 .6 ..14 | 12

I predicted Farsley would not make the playoffs as they had 6 tough away games, they had not played anyone in the playoff hunt. A Farsley fan reading the forum took offence, I emailed Mr Tibbs, agreeing not to get into a slanging match with Farsley fan. Sure enough, Farsley failed to make the playoffs, and the fan disappeared away quietly. What I failed to see that season was the Johnson Morley coaching duo at Ramsbottom that would knock us out in the playoffs. Seeing them above with 4 wins out of 4, they had struggled for a lot of the season but gained momentum after New Year. Not going to matches, I don't read other forums to learn about other teams, I only go to Darlington sites.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:49 am 
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theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Great post Ginge :thumbup:


Thank you Mr Cat :)


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:50 am 
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Vodka_Vic wrote:
Looking at those fixtures then Leamington and Gainsborough look favourites to go down in my view, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Alfreton dragged back down.

Vicc, with Gainsborough losing tonight, you could be right.


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