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PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:19 am 
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Bottom 11 teams after today’s games, Sat Feb 10th 2018

FCUM ................0-0 Chorley FT (Friday night)
Bradford............ 0-1 DARLINGTON
ALFRETON......... 2-1 Tamworth
Boston.............. 3-3 CURZON ASHTON
GAINSBOROUGH 0-3 SOUTHPORT
LEAMINGTON….. 1-3 Harrogate
Stockport.......... P-P NUNEATON
TELFORD........... 3-0 NORTH FERRIBY


The Bottom 11 in the Vanarama National League North, Sat Feb 10th 2018 (Tamworth became part of the bottom group)
.......................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts
12. FCUM............ 30.. 9 2 4.. 1 5 .9 45 54.. -9.. 37
13. Alfreton......... 29.. 6 2 7.. 5 1 .8 47 47... 0.. 36
14. Darlington...... 30.. 6 4 5.. 3 5 .7 41 45.. -4.. 36
15. Tamworth...... 30.. 6 3 5.. 4 3 .8 42 50.. -8.. 36
16. Southport...... 29.. 5 4 5.. 4 4 .7 40 54. -14.. 35
17. Nuneaton....... 28.. 7 3 5.. 2 3 .8 35 44.. -9.. 33
18. Leamington.... 30.. 4 3 8.. 4 5 .6 41 50.. -9.. 32
19. Curzon Ashton 28.. 5 5 4.. 2 5 .7 34 46. -12.. 31
20. Gainsborough. 29.. 7 1 7.. 2 3 .9 32 57. -25.. 31
21. Telford........... 26.. 4 2 7.. 5 1 .7 36 46. -10.. 30
22. North Ferriby.. 29.. 0 4 11 1 2 11 14 74. -60... 9

My picks to go down, as of today, Leamington, Gainsborough and North Ferriby.
Leamington have only 4 easier games to play, Gainsborough have lost two games this week 0-5 to Bradford, today 0-3 to fellow struggler Southport


Bottom 11 teams this week

FC Utd of Man; 7 games against common bottom 10 opponents; 24/02 Telford (A), 03/03 Gainsborough (H), 31/03 Leamington (A), 07/04 Tamworth (A), 14/04 Darlington (H), 21/04 Alfreton (A), 28/04 North Ferriby
FCUM 0-0 Chorley; A goalless draw on Friday night lifts FCUM above Tamworth, FCUM are now 6 points in front of 20th place Gainsborough

Alfreton; 5 games; 03/03 Telford (H), 24/03 Southport (A), 30/03 Nuneaton (H) Fri, 02/04 Curzon (A), 21/04 FCUM (H)
Alfreton 2-1 Tamworth; Tied at half time 1-1, Alfreton get a winner in the last 5 minutes, lifting them into 13th place over Tamworth who fall into the bottom pack.

Darlington; 7 games; 03/03 Tamworth (A), 10/03 Curzon (H), 17/03 North Ferriby (H), 24/03 Telford (A), 31/03 Southport (H), 14/04 FCUM (A), 21/04 Nuneaton (H)
Bradford 0-1 Darlington; Another solid performance, the second straight clean sheet, third straight win as David Syers 56th min goal wins the three points, the Quakers have now won 11 points out of a possible 15 in the last five games, lifting them into 14th place

Tamworth; 6 games; 17/02 Telford (H), 03/03 Darlington (H), 10/03 Southport (A), 24/03 Curzon (A), 30/03 North Ferriby (H) (Fri), 07/04 FCUM (H)
Alfreton 2-1 Tamworth; A loss in the last 5 mins today, results in Tamworth falling into 15th place, FCUM, Alfreton & Darlington all leap over them. A very long shot to go down, Tamworth are five points above 20th place Gainsborough and have a far superior goal difference (-8 to -25)

Southport; 7 games; 17/02 North Ferriby (A), 24/02 Curzon (H), 10/03 Tamworth (H), 24/03 Alfreton (H), 31/03 Darlington (A), 07/04 Nuneaton (H), TBA Telford (H)
Gainsborough 0-3 Southport; A huge win as a Jason Gilchrist hat trick (two in the first half) lift Southport to 16th place with a 3-0 win at strugglers Gainsborough, making in 4 points between the teams and improving the goal difference margin between the two teams also (-14 to Gainsborough’s -25).

Nuneaton; 7 games; 27/02 Telford (A), 03/03 Curzon (A), 10/03 North Ferriby, (H)
17/03 Leamington (A), 30/03 Alfreton (A) Fri, 07/04 Southport (A), 21/04 Darlington (A)
Stockport P-P Nuneaton; No game today has Nuneaton fall to 17th place.

Leamington; 4 games; 17/03 Nuneaton (H), 31/03 FCUM (H), 02/04 Telford (A), 14/04 Curzon (H)
Leamington 1-3 Harrogate; After Leamington had equalised on 55 mins to cancel out ex-Quaker Mark Beck’s first half goal, Harrogate score a minute later on their way to a 3-1 win. Leamington are now in 18th place and see Curzon (1 point) and Telford (3 points) make up ground on them. On Tuesday night Telford vs Curzon Ashton, if either team wins, Leamington will fall into the bottom four, a draw will keep Leamington fifth bottom on a better goal difference of 3, both Curzon Ashton (1 game) and Telford (3 games) will still have games to play.

Curzon Ashton; (8 games); 13/02 Telford (A), 24/02 Southport (H), 03/03 Nuneaton (H), 10/03 Darlington (A), 24/03 Tamworth (H), 02/04 Alfreton (H), 14/04 Leamington (A), TBA Gainsborough (H)
Boston 3-3 Curzon Ashton; After 61 minutes Curzon Ashton lead 3-0, 3 goals between the 63rd and 75th min for mid table Boston wipe out the lead, it might be two points lost but the one point gained lifts Curzon Ashton over Gainsborough into 19th place with a 13 goal superior goal difference (-12 to -25), Curzon also have an extra game to play. A big game on Tuesday night as Curzon travel to 21st place Telford.

Gainsborough; (5 games); 03/03 FCUM (A), 02/04 North Ferriby (A), 21/04 Telford (A), 28/04 Tamworth (H), TBA Curzon (A)
Gainsborough 0-3 Southport; A bad week for Gainsborough who lose 0-5 midweek, and then 0-3 today to Southport who are now four points and superior goal difference ahead. Apart from a game at North Ferriby, today might have been the best chance for Gainsborough to win any of its remaining games. On Tuesday night, Telford vs Curzon Ashton, any result is not helpful to Gainsborough, a draw probably the best result but that would cause Telford to rise above them on a far superior goal difference.

Telford; (9 games); 13/02 Curzon (H), 17/02 Tamworth (A), 24/02 FCUM (H), 27/02 Nuneaton (H), 03/03 Alfreton (A), 24/03 Darlington (H), 02/04 Leamington (H), 21/04 Gainsborough (H), TBA Southport (A)
Telford 3-0 North Ferriby; The two bottom teams meet, and Telford did what they needed to do, winning 3-0. Four home games this month against Bottom 11 teams, this was an important win, going into Tuesday night’s game against 19th place Curzon Ashton. Another win (even 1-0) will lift Telford to 17th place.

North Ferriby; (6 games); 17/02 Southport (H), 10/03 Nuneaton (A), 17/03 Darlington (A), 30/03 Tamworth (A) (Fri), 02/04 Gainsborough (H), 28/04 FCUM (A)
Telford 3-0 North Ferriby; Another loss for North Ferriby, today at 2nd bottom Telford.


Bottom 11 outstanding games against their opponents

FCUM (7 games)
24/02 Telford (A)
03/03 Gainsborough (H)
31/03 Leamington (A)
07/04 Tamworth (A)
14/04 Darlington (H)
21/04 Alfreton (A)
28/04 North Ferriby

Alfreton (5 games)
03/03 Telford (H)
24/03 Southport (A)
30/03 Nuneaton (H) Fri
02/04 Curzon (A)
21/04 FCUM (H)

Darlington (7 games)
03/03 Tamworth (A)
10/03 Curzon (H)
17/03 North Ferriby (H)
24/03 Telford (A)
31/03 Southport (H)
14/04 FCUM (A)
21/04 Nuneaton (H)

Tamworth(6 games)
17/02 Telford (H)
03/03 Darlington (H)
10/03 Southport (A)
24/03 Curzon (A)
30/03 North Ferriby (H) (Fri)
07/04 FCUM (H)

Nuneaton (7 games)
27/02 Telford (A)
03/03 Curzon (A)
10/03 North Ferriby (H)
17/03 Leamington (A)
30/03 Alfreton (A) Fri
07/04 Southport (A)
21/04 Darlington (A)

Leamington (4 games)
17/03 Nuneaton (H)
31/03 FCUM (H)
02/04 Telford (A)
14/04 Curzon (H)

Southport (7 games)
17/02 North Ferriby (A)
24/02 Curzon (H)
10/03 Tamworth (H)
24/03 Alfreton (H)
31/03 Darlington (A)
07/04 Nuneaton (H)
TBA… Telford(H)

Gainsborough (5 games)
03/03 FCUM (A)
02/04 North Ferriby (A)
21/04 Telford (A)
28/04 Tamworth (H)
TBA… Curzon (A)

Curzon Ashton (8 games)
13/02 Telford (A)
24/02 Southport (A)
03/03 Nuneaton (H)
10/03 Darlington (A)
02/04 Alfreton (H)
14/04 Leamington (A)
TBA… Gainsborough (H)

Telford (9 games)
13/02 Curzon (H)
17/02 Tamworth (A)
24/02 FCUM (H)
27/02 Nuneaton (H)
03/03 Alfreton (A)
24/03 Darlington (H)
02/04 Leamington (H)
21/04 Gainsborough (H)
TBA…. Southport (A)

North Ferriby(6 games)
17/02 Southport (H)
10/03 Nuneaton (A)
17/03 Darlington (A)
30/03 Tamworth (A)
02/04 Gainsborough (H)
28/04 FCUM (A)


This week’s Bottom 11 games

13/02 Tuesday
Brackley............. vs NORTH FERRIBY
TELFORD............. vs CURZON ASHTON
TAMWORTH....... vs Blyth


17/02 Saturday
Brackley............ vs DARLINGTON (3.00)
ALFRETON......... vs Salford
Boston.............. vs LEAMINGTON
Chorley.............. vs GAINSBOROUGH
CURZON ASHTON vs York
FCUM................. vs Stockport
NORTH FERRIBY.. vs SOUTHPORT
Spennymoor....... vs NUNEATON
Tamworth........... vs TELFORD



Comments

I liked super_les_mcjannet’s thread 50 points, and the questions,

February (Can we get 4 points)
Sat 3rd Feb - Home - Blyth Spartans
Sat 10th Feb - Away - Bradford Park Avenue
Sat 17th Feb - Away - Brackley Town
Sat 24th Feb - Home - Kidderminster Harriers

March (Can we get 9 points)
Sat 3rd Mar - Away - Tamworth
Sat 10th Mar - Home - Curzon Athletic
Sat 17th Mar - Home - North Ferriby United
Sat 24th Mar - Away - AFC Telford
Sat 31st Mar - Home - Southport

April (Can we get 7 points)
Mon 2nd Apr - Away - Spennymoor Town
Sat 7th Apr - Home - Boston United
Sat 14th Apr - Away - FC United
Sat 21st Apr - Home - Nuneaton Town
Sat 28th Apr - Away – Stockport


Up to the recovery at Leamington, it was a real concern, where were enough points going to come from to stay up.
We are not out of the woods but 6 points so far in February is fantastic. The fixture list had four opponents either in or contending for the playoffs, getting two draws for the month would have seen like decent results a month ago, but we’ve won the first two, that is a great achievement, hopefully the improved play and improved consistency will carry on and I’d be happy with two more points, getting a win over Kidderminster would be fantastic.

Winners today
Darlington obviously, we won at a playoff contending Bradford
Telford, 3-0 winners, catching up to the 3rd and 4th bottom teams
Southport, 3-0 winners, separating themselves from Gainsborough

Losers today
Gainsborough, sliding towards the relegation zone with two losses this week
Leamington, another home loss
Curzon Ashton, losing a 3-0 lead with 30 mins to go, finishing with a 3-3 draw

Is the Bottom 11 too many teams, today, probably not, in a month, probably, if Leamington and Gainsborough don't find form, FCUM, Alfreton, Darlington, Tamworth and Southport will get enough points that 50 points might be way more than is needed to stay up, but there are no guarantees in this game.


Last edited by Ginge01 on Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:05 am 
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Ginge as a matter of interest, if we get out of the bottom 11, will you start looking at the top 11?


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:19 pm 
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Darlo_Pete, I'd prefer doing that, do I think we are going to get into the playoffs or make a run at it, this is what we have with 12 games to go.

5) York.... Played 30, Goal Diff +12 Points 49
6) Spenny Played 26, Goal Diff +12 Points 48
7) Blyth... Played 29, Goal Diff +12 Points 46
14) Darlo. Played 30, Goal Diff -4... Points 36

I hope this run is a starting point for next season


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:57 pm 
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Ginge, out of interest have you worked out what the likely points total will be to be safe? Obviously, 50+ is normally the aim but with the league being so tight as it is, will 50 be enough or is it possible a team is going to go down with a total around this mark?

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:20 pm 
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real_darlo_85 wrote:
Ginge, out of interest have you worked out what the likely points total will be to be safe? Obviously, 50+ is normally the aim but with the league being so tight as it is, will 50 be enough or is it possible a team is going to go down with a total around this mark?

Whilst 50+ might "normally be the aim", looking back over the past 5 seasons, the number of points required to avoid relegation has ranged from 38 to 49. So, that's a very good question to ask our stat man.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:59 pm 
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Maurice_Peddelty wrote:
real_darlo_85 wrote:
Ginge, out of interest have you worked out what the likely points total will be to be safe? Obviously, 50+ is normally the aim but with the league being so tight as it is, will 50 be enough or is it possible a team is going to go down with a total around this mark?

Whilst 50+ might "normally be the aim", looking back over the past 5 seasons, the number of points required to avoid relegation has ranged from 38 to 49. So, that's a very good question to ask our stat man.


Maurice and real_darlo_85

I have not tried to work out if 50 will be enough, as Maurice says, the number of points to avoid relegation has ranged from 38 to 49.
I am inclined to think the 6 below (North Ferriby are already down) will fight it out and we are already above them, but a lot of football has to be played.

The Bottom 6 in the Vanarama National League North, Sat Feb 10th 2018
.......................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts
17. Nuneaton....... 28.. 7 3 5.. 2 3 .8 35 44.... -9.. 33
18. Leamington.... 30.. 4 3 8.. 4 5 .6 41 50.... -9.. 32
19. Curzon Ashton 28.. 5 5 4.. 2 5 .7 34 46. -12.. 31
20. Gainsborough. 29.. 7 1 7.. 2 3 .9 32 57. -25.. 31
21. Telford............. 26.. 4 2 7.. 5 1 .7 36 46. -10.. 30
22. North Ferriby... 29.. 0 4 11 1 2 11 14 74. -60... 9

I'm picking Leamington and Gainsbrough to go down, they are averaging 1 point a game + 2 points (Leam 30 32) (Gains (29 31)
So I'll project them to get 44 points (42 games + 2 points)
To get there,
Leamington has to get 12 points, the relatively easier opponents for them are 4 games; 17/03 Nuneaton (H), 31/03 FCUM (H), 02/04 Telford (A), 14/04 Curzon (H), maybe 1 win, 3 draws 0 losses, that's 6 points, now they've got to take points off teams in the top half of the table for the other 6.

Gainsborough has to get 13 points, the relatively easier opponents for them are 5 games; 03/03 FCUM (A), 05/03 Curzon (A), 02/04 North Ferriby (A), 21/04 Telford (A), 28/04 Tamworth (H), if I give them a win over North Ferriby, they have to get points away as Tamworth should be able to beat them in the only remaining Gainsborough 'easier' home game to play. So 1 win, two draws at Telford and Curzon, will get them 5 points, the same problem as Leamington, they have to acquire points from games against the top half of the table.

I can project Leamington to 38 points, Gainsborough to 36, unless they overachieve against the bottom teams, but averaging a point a game against the top half teams, that's unlikely.

For Telford and Curzon to get to 45 points and possibly be above Leamington and Gainsborough on 44. Telford and Curzon play each other tomorrow so there are points that one or both can get.

Telford; (9 games); 13/02 Curzon (H), 17/02 Tamworth (A), 24/02 FCUM (H), 27/02 Nuneaton (H), 03/03 Alfreton (A), 24/03 Darlington (H), 02/04 Leamington (H), 21/04 Gainsborough (H)
If Telford beat Curzon Ashton, draw with Nuneaton, Leamington, Gainsborough, 6 points, and get 2 points (draws) from the FCUM (H), Alfreton (A), Darlington or Southport (A), the 8 points gets them to 38 and they are level with Leamington, a draw with Curzon gives them 36 and they are level with Gainsborough (where Gainsborough can likely get to playing easier opponents).

Curzon Ashton; (8 games); 13/02 Telford (A), 24/02 Southport (H), 03/03 Nuneaton (H), 05/03 Gainsborough (H), 10/03 Darlington (A), 24/03 Tamworth (H), 02/04 Alfreton (H), 14/04 Leamington (A)
If the 4 home games (Southport, Nuneaton, Gainsborough, Alfreton) give them 4 points, 4 draws and a draw at Telford and Leamington, those 6 points get them to 37, so one or two extra points anywhere will also get them in front of Leamington and Gainsborough.

Nuneaton; have 4 interesting games in the next month; 27/02 Telford (A), 03/03 Curzon Ashton (A), 10/03 North Ferriby, (H) 17/03 Leamington (A). A win over North Ferriby and a couple of away draws will get them to 38 points, if they are below 38 points on 17/03, they may be scrambling to get out also.

The four teams will sort themselves in large part on how they play each other, (Nuneaton and North Ferriby games included)
13/02 Telford............ vs Curzon Ashton
27/02 Telford............ vs Nuneaton
03/03 Curzon Ashton vs Nuneaton
05/03 Curzon Ashton vs Gainsborough
10/03 Nuneaton........ vs North Ferriby
17/03 Leamington..... vs Nuneaton
02/04 North Ferriby.. vs Gainsborough
02/04 Telford............ vs Leamington
14/04 Leamington..... vs Curzon Ashton
21/04 Telford............. vs Gainsborough


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