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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:50 am 
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Bottom 11 teams after today’s games, Sat Feb 24th 2018

Darlington..... 2-1 Kidderminster
Bradford.........0-1 North Ferriby
Gainsborough P-P Brackley
Leamington....1-0 Blyth
Nuneaton.......1-1 Chorley
Salford............P-P Tamworth
Southport.......3-1 Curzon Ashton
Telford............1-0 FCUM
York. ..............1-1 Alfreton


The Bottom 11 in the Vanarama National League North, Sat Feb 24th 2018 (Added Boston United as Southport and Nuneaton jumped over them)
............................. Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts
11. Southport....... 31.. 6 4 5.. 5 4 .7 46 55.. -9.. 41
12. Nuneaton........ 31.. 7 4 5.. 3 3 .8 38 45.. -7.. 40
13. Boston............ 29.. 8 4 4.. 3 2 .8 48 49.. -1.. 39
14. Darlington....... 32.. 7 4 5.. 3 5 .8 43 49.. -6.. 39
15. Leamington..... 32.. 5 3 8.. 5 5 .6 43 50.. -7.. 38
16. Alfreton........... 32.. 6 2 8.. 5 2 .9 53 55.. -2.. 37
17. Curzon Ashton 31.. 6 5 4.. 3 5 .8 42 50.. -8.. 37
18. FCUM............... 32.. 9 2 5.. 1 5 10 45 56 -11. 37
19. Tamworth........ 31.. 6 4 6.. 4 3 .8 44 55 -11.. 37
20. Telford............. 29.. 5 2 8.. 5 2 .7 39 51 -12.. 34
21. Gainsborough. 30.. 7 1 7.. 2 3 10 32 58 -26.. 31
22. North Ferriby... 32.. 0 4 12 2 2 12 15 80 -65.. 12

My picks to go down, as of today, Telford, Gainsborough and North Ferriby.
No change this week. There are lots of big games (in importance) in the next 7 days that may change my prediction.

Tuesday night; Telford vs Nuneaton. Telford’s ‘easier’ month with fixtures is about to end, but two home wins over North Ferriby and today FCUM means they are just three points from Tamworth in 19th place. Nuneaton have had a great February (3-1-0) so they will be a tough opponent.

Saturday
Tamworth vs Darlington; We want to continue our good streak of form from February (3-0-1), Tamworth (Feb 0-2-2) should be desperate to find points, a draw would certainly be good for us, keeping Tamworth below us.

Alfreton vs Telford; Alfreton (Feb 1-1-2) need to get at least a point from this game to keep the three point cushion and superior goal difference, Telford (Feb 2-1-1) could catch or pass them with a win and at least a point from Tuesday nights game home to Nuneaton.

Curzon Ashton vs Nuneaton; with Curzon Ashton losing today, they experienced the slide in the table that we felt last week with teams below picking up point(s), they have won seven points in February (2-1-2) but are only three points above 20th place Telford. Nuneaton (Feb 3-1-0) will be a tough opponent.

FCUM vs Gainsborough; February form FCUM (0-1-3 F0 A3) against Gainsborough (0-0-3 F0 A9). A massive game for both teams, I’m predicting 0-0, the point helps to doom Gainsborough, for FCUM battling on 37 points with Alfreton, Curzon Ashton & Tamworth, it might lift them a place or two, being very valuable at the end of the season in keeping them up.



Bottom 11 teams this week

Southport; 5 games against common bottom 10 opponents; 10/03 Tamworth (H), 13/03 Telford (H), 24/03 Alfreton (H), 31/03 Darlington (A), 07/04 Nuneaton (H)
Southport 3-1 Curzon Ashton; Despite falling behind 0-1, Southport led at half time 2-1, adding a third in stoppage time to keep them seven points in front of 20th place Telford.

Nuneaton; (7 games); 27/02 Telford (A), 03/03 Curzon (A), 10/03 North Ferriby, (H)
17/03 Leamington (A), 30/03 Alfreton (A) Fri, 07/04 Southport (A), 21/04 Darlington (A)
Nuneaton 1-1 Chorley; Trailing 0-1 at HT, Nuneaton’s 85th min equaliser secures a valuable point. Nuneaton’s excellent unbeaten Feb has pulled them away from the bottom, one more game Tuesday night at Telford remains this month.

Boston. (No game today)
A new addition, they have only played twice in Feb (0-1-1), and are currently five points ahead of 20th place Telford. January’s form was 3-0-0. If their form does not turn around, I will research them more fully, looking at their remaining fixtures etc.

Darlington; (7 games); 03/03 Tamworth (A), 10/03 Curzon (H), 17/03 North Ferriby (H), 24/03 Telford (A), 31/03 Southport (H), 14/04 FCUM (A), 21/04 Nuneaton (H)
Darlington 2-1 Kidderminster; A 1-0 half time lead from Josh Heaton looked to be lost with a soft 77th min reply for Kidder, Stephen Thompson’s injury time winner secures the win. Darlington last week went from 14th place to 17th place, today they reclaim their 14th place slot, remaining 5 points of 20th place Telford.

Leamington; (4 games); 17/03 Nuneaton (H), 31/03 FCUM (H), 02/04 Telford (A), 14/04 Curzon (H)
Leamington 1-0 Blyth; Another huge win for Leamington by 1-0 in the 50th min, also helped by a Blyth penalty lifts Leamington to 15th place, still 4 points clear of 20th place Telford.

Alfreton; (5 games); 03/03 Telford (H), 24/03 Southport (A), 30/03 Nuneaton (H) Fri, 02/04 Curzon (A), 21/04 FCUM (H)
York 1-1 Alfreton; Despite falling behind after 5 mins, Alfreton scored just before half time to earn a point at playoff contenders York. Alfreton remain in 16th place but see 20th place Telford narrow the points gap to three.

Curzon Ashton; (6 games); 03/03 Nuneaton (H), 05/03 Gainsborough (H), 10/03 Darlington (A), 24/03 Tamworth (H), 02/04 Alfreton (H), 14/04 Leamington (A)
Southport 3-1 Curzon Ashton; although they led 0-1 after 14 mins, Curzon Ashton lose 3-1, this loss has them slide down to 17th place, with 20th place Telford’s win, only three points separates them.

FC Utd of Man; (6 games); 03/03 Gainsborough (H), 31/03 Leamington (A), 07/04 Tamworth (A), 14/04 Darlington (H), 21/04 Alfreton (A), 28/04 North Ferriby
Telford 1-0 FCUM; A huge loss for FCUM, a 35th min goal sinks them, the third 0-1 loss for FCUM who failed to score in February (0-1-3), this result has FCUM slip four places to 18th. My first report of 2017/18 was Sat Feb 3rd, this was how FCUM matched up against the bottom four (I included us also we had beaten Blyth 3-0 and I wanted to mention it again!!!) , a lot has changed in a month and FCUM has to be alarmed at their fall down the table, a nine point cushion over Telford is now three points.
13. FCUM............. 29.. 9 1 4.. 1 5 .9 45 54.. -9.. 36
15. Darlington ..... 29.. 6 4 5.. 2 5 .7 40 45.. -5.. 33
19. Gainsborough. 27.. 7 1 6.. 2 3 .8 32 49 -17.. 31
20. Curzon Ashton 26.. 5 5 3.. 2 4 .7 30 41 -11.. 30
21. Telford............. 25.. 3 2 7.. 5 1 .7 33 46 -13.. 27
22. North Ferriby... 28.. 0 4 11 1 2 10 14 71 -57... 9

Tamworth; (6 games); 03/03 Darlington (H), 10/03 Southport (A), 24/03 Curzon (A), 30/03 North Ferriby (H) (Fri), 07/04 FCUM (H) 28/04 Gainsborough (A)
Salford P-P Tamworth; A very late postponement due to a frozen pitch today. On Feb 3rd when I produced the first posting, Tamworth were not in the Bottom 10, a week later Feb 10th they were added when they fell into the expanded Bottom 11, after a 0-2-2 February they are in 19th place, only 3 points in front of Telford for the last relegation spot. Next Saturday, home to Darlington, they will be desperate to at least get a home point.

Telford; (7 games); 27/02 Nuneaton (H), 03/03 Alfreton (A), 13/03 Southport (A), 24/03 Darlington (H), 02/04 Leamington (H), 21/04 Gainsborough (H)
Telford 1-0 FCUM; A 35th min goal secures a huge 3 points for 20th place Telford who do not move up, but narrow the points gap on Tamworth, FCUM, Curzon Ashton and Alfreton today. They are now three points back with a Tuesday night home game with Nuneaton that closes out a February (2-1-1) that has given them hope for staying up with 7 (Bottom 11) games still to play.

Gainsborough; (5 games); 03/03 FCUM (A), 05/03 Curzon (A), 02/04 North Ferriby (A), 21/04 Telford (A), 28/04 Tamworth (H)
Gainsborough P-P Brackley; No game due to an F.A. Trophy game. Gainsborough remain in 21st place but see Telford move 3 points clear, Gainsborough are now 6 points adrift of 19th place after Leamington, Darlington and Alfreton added to their points total today.

North Ferriby; (5 games); 10/03 Nuneaton (A), 17/03 Darlington (A), 30/03 Tamworth (A) (Fri), 02/04 Gainsborough (H), 28/04 FCUM (A)
Bradford 0-1 North Ferriby; It has not happened often this season where the words terrific result and North Ferriby have been used in the same sentence, today’s 19th min winner was only the second win of their season. Well done North Ferriby.


Bottom 11 outstanding games against their opponents

Southport (5 games)
10/03 Tamworth (H)
13/03 Telford(H)
24/03 Alfreton (H)
31/03 Darlington (A)
07/04 Nuneaton (H)

Nuneaton (7 games)
27/02 Telford (A)
03/03 Curzon (A)
10/03 North Ferriby (H)
17/03 Leamington (A)
30/03 Alfreton (A) Fri
07/04 Southport (A)
21/04 Darlington (A)

Darlington (7 games)
03/03 Tamworth (A)
10/03 Curzon (H)
17/03 North Ferriby (H)
24/03 Telford (A)
31/03 Southport (H)
14/04 FCUM (A)
21/04 Nuneaton (H)

Leamington (4 games)
17/03 Nuneaton (H)
31/03 FCUM (H)
02/04 Telford (A)
14/04 Curzon (H)

Alfreton (5 games)
03/03 Telford (H)
24/03 Southport (A)
30/03 Nuneaton (H) Fri
02/04 Curzon (A)
21/04 FCUM (H)

Curzon Ashton (6 games)
03/03 Nuneaton (H)
05/03 Gainsborough (H)
10/03 Darlington (A)
02/04 Alfreton (H)
14/04 Leamington (A)

FCUM (6 games)
03/03 Gainsborough (H)
31/03 Leamington (A)
07/04 Tamworth (A)
14/04 Darlington (H)
21/04 Alfreton (A)
28/04 North Ferriby

Tamworth (6 games)
03/03 Darlington (H)
10/03 Southport (A)
24/03 Curzon (A)
30/03 North Ferriby (H) (Fri)
07/04 FCUM (H)
28/04 Gainsborough (A)

Telford (7 games)
27/02 Nuneaton (H)
03/03 Alfreton (A)
13/03 Southport (A)
24/03 Darlington (H)
02/04 Leamington (H)
21/04 Gainsborough (H)

Gainsborough (5 games)
03/03 FCUM (A)
05/03 Curzon (A)
02/04 North Ferriby (A)
21/04 Telford (A)
28/04 Tamworth (H)

North Ferriby (5 games)
10/03 Nuneaton (A)
17/03 Darlington (A)
30/03 Tamworth (A)
02/04 Gainsborough (H)
28/04 FCUM (A)



This week’s Bottom 11 games

27/02 Tuesday
TELFORD........... vs NUNEATON

03/03 Saturday
TAMWORTH...... vs DARLINGTON
ALFRETON....... vs TELFORD
Blyth................ vs SOUTHPORT
CURZON.......... vs NUNEATON
FCUM............... vs GAINSBOROUGH
NORTH FERRIBY vs Salford
Spennymoor..... vs LEAMINGTON





Comments
Congratulations to North Ferriby, still training, still playing with pride winning only their second game of the season at Bradford P.A. who are losing touch with playoff contention with their inability in February to score against lowly teams at home (0-1 to Darlington and North Ferriby), but can draw 2-2 at Salford.
Another great result for Darlington who missed chances to expand the lead only for Kidderminster to equalise before Stephen Thompson’s injury time winner. 9 points in February has lifted Darlington above Tamworth, Alfreton, FCUM to improve the chances of staying up. As Nuneaton (10), Curzon Ashton (7), Telford (7) and Leamington (7) have added February points, the points gap from Feb 3rd (3) to today (5) between Darlington and the 20th place team has hardly changed, it has required the Quakers to keep playing well and winning points, for teams like FCUM (1 point in Feb) and Tamworth (2 points in Feb), the form of so many teams has sucked those teams also into relegation worries, and made Gainsborough (0 points) an almost certain relegated team without some form being discovered.
What is the number of points to be safe, depending on FCUM, Tamworth & Telford's form, maybe as low as 44-45, but it could also jump up to 50 if they find a way to all win games, so many bottom dwellers had a good February, there can be no let for the Quakers or any team as we move into March.

Winners today
North Ferriby winning at Bradford
Darlington beating Kidderminster
Leamington beating Blyth
Telford beating FCUM

Losers today
Gainsborough, being left behind
Tamworth slipping to 19th place.
FCUM losing to Telford, slipping to 18th place.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:34 am 
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As mentioned on the '50 points' thread, if Telford beat Nuneaton, you could argue that it drags Bradford PA and Stockport into the relegation scrap.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 7:52 am 
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Sleepless night and, instead of counting sheep, tried to work out whether or not N. Ferriby can, given their amazing run of one victory, avoid relegation. Got my knickers in a twist over the permutations. Perhaps Ginge can give an answer and allow me to get back to the sheep next time?


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:11 am 
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Mathematically they can finish with 42pts, but with all teams outside of the playoffs at least 5pts off that mark they could be relegated within a fortnight. Could be a tricky banana-skin fixture for some, as once their relegation is confirmed the pressure is off and have nothing more to lose. Looks like we may well be one of the first to play them once they are officially relegated... :shifty:

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:50 am 
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I suspect it'll be the current bottom 3 to go, but looking at how few games Leamington have against sides around us, they seem to have the toughest run in, so they might get dragged in.

Conversely, i think we have one of the easiest, if not *the* easiest. I honestly believe we can finish very comfortably mid table, if we keep playing right to the end of the season, and hopefully we will as players need to earn contracts for next year. We really should be safe next month. Those two home games on the spin really, really should be two home wins.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:56 am 
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Have to admit Ginge, I'm surprised you're still predicting Telford to go down.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:41 pm 
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I think one of FCUM or Tamworth could go down, they're both on the slide.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:18 pm 
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Quakerz wrote:
I think one of FCUM or Tamworth could go down, they're both on the slide.


Agreed, it's surprising how both teams have slid, Tamworth were just in the top half at the start of February, and now there's talk they could be relegated.

Darlo_Pete wrote:
Have to admit Ginge, I'm surprised you're still predicting Telford to go down.


After Telford beat North Ferriby 3-0 I thought they are on their way, and they might still get out, there is only one fact that is not in their favour, the most important fact, points!!!;

Today's table
14. Darlington....... 32.. 7 4 5.. 3 5 .8 43 49.. -6.. 39
15. Leamington..... 32.. 5 3 8.. 5 5 .6 43 50.. -7.. 38
16. Alfreton........... 32.. 6 2 8.. 5 2 .9 53 55.. -2.. 37
17. Curzon Ashton 31.. 6 5 4.. 3 5 .8 42 50.. -8.. 37
18. FCUM............... 32.. 9 2 5.. 1 5 10 45 56 -11. 37
19. Tamworth........ 31.. 6 4 6.. 4 3 .8 44 55 -11.. 37
20. Telford............. 29.. 5 2 8.. 5 2 .7 39 51 -12.. 34

The six teams above have played more games than Telford, and they have 3-5 more points. If Telford beat Nuneaton, and join 4 teams on 37 points, then I admit 'it's anyone's guess'.

I've looked at the remaining fixtures, and made predictions, I'm not trying to predict how teams play against the top half, but Darlington beating Kidderminster, Darlington and Leamington beating Blyth, how can any prediction be close to 100% if there is bad weather to play in, lucky bounces, dodgy refereeing decisions, so here's my best guess today.

Bottom 11 opponents and results prediction

...........Dar.......... Lea......... Alfr.......... Crz.......... FCM...... Tam......... Telf
27/02...............................................................................................Nun(H) 1
03/03 Tam(A) 1...................Telf(H) 3..Nun(H) 1..Gai(H) 3..Dar(H) 1..Alfr(A) 0
05/03.................................................Gai(H) 3
10/03 Crz(H) 3...................................Dar(A) 0.................Sou(A) 0
13/03 ..............................................................................................Sou(A) 0
17/03 NFr(H) 3....Nun(H) 1
24/03 Telf(A) 1................... Sou(A) 0..Tam(H) 3................Crz(A) 0...Dar(H) 1
30/03................................. Nun(H) 1................................NFr(H) 3
31/03 Sou(A) 0....FCM(H) 3.................................Lea(A) 0
02/04..................Telf(A) 1.. Crz(A) 0...Alfr(H) 3.................................Lea(H) 1
07/04.................................................................Tam(A) 1 FCM(H) 1
14/04 FCM(A) 1...Crz(H) 1...................Lea(A) 1..Dar(H) 1
21/04 Nun(H) 1.................. FCM(H)1..................Alfr(A) 1.................Gai(H) 3
28/04 ................................................................NFr(H) 3. Gai(A) 3
Total ............10..............6.............5.............11.............9.............8............6

FCUM (Gainsborough and North Ferriby home) and Tamworth (Gainsborough away, North Ferriby home) have 6 points each waiting for them, ugly 1-0 wins is all that is needed, Telford has Gainsborough home for 3 points, after that, Telford has to play better teams than the bottom 2, so a slight advantage to FCUM and Tamworth. Telford stll have games against Spennymoor, Blyth, Chorley, Stockport amongst others.

I'm predicting/guessing Telford does not make up enough points on FCUM and Tamworth but one game for example my prediction of Leamington beating FCUM, if FCUM won, then Leamington might get caught by Telford and only a better goal difference would rescue Leamington currently from relegation.
If Telford do pick up just 6 points from the picks, they get to 40, maybe a few more points can be found up to 42-44, my prediction of 10 points for Darlington gets us to 49 with top half of the table games to be played.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:07 am 
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Only 2 points off 11th. Ginge what will happen if we get up to 11th in the table? That would be a nice problem to have.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:55 pm 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
Only 2 points off 11th. Ginge what will happen if we get up to 11th in the table? That would be a nice problem to have.

Agreed, that would be a nice problem, and if the 20th placed team (Telford) lost while we rose in the table, that would be all I'm asking for. If we rise and Telford and others keep adding points, it just becomes crazier and more stressful for more teams going through March into April.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:19 pm 
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It could get to a stage were we want teams at the bottom to beat teams around the playoffs, we're not quite at that stage yet, but in a few games time things may change.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:42 pm 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
It could get to a stage were we want teams at the bottom to beat teams around the playoffs, we're not quite at that stage yet, but in a few games time things may change.


Yes, it could get to that stage, just not this season. Have to love your optimism though, Pete. :thumbup:


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