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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 5:13 am 
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Team Supported: Darlington
Back after a week because of bad weather postponing everything.

Bottom 11 teams after today’s games, Sat Mar 10th 2018

Darlington ..... 1-0 Curzon Ashton
Bradford......... 3-3 Alfreton
Gainsborough 1-0 Kidderminster
Harrogate...... 6-0 FCUM
Leamington.... P-P Chorley
Nuneaton....... 2-2 North Ferriby
Stockport........ 0-1 Brackley
Southport....... 3-0 Tamworth
Telford............ P-P Spennymoor
York................ 1-0 Boston

The Bottom 11 in the Vanarama National League North, Sat Mar 10th 2018
(And Boston United & Stockport)

............................. Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts
10. Southport....... 32.. 7 4 5.. 5 4 .7 49 55.. -6.. 44
11. Nuneaton....... 33.. 7 5 5.. 5 3 .8 42 48.. -6.. 44
12. Stockport........ 31.. 8 4 4.. 4 3 .8 53 45…. 8.. 43
13. Darlington....... 33.. 8 4 5.. 3 5 .8 44 49.. -5.. 42
14. Boston............ 30.. 8 4 4.. 3 2 .9 48 50.. -2.. 39
15. Alfreton........... 33.. 6 2 8.. 5 3 .9 56 58.. -2.. 38
16. Leamington..... 32.. 5 3 8.. 5 5 .6 43 50.. -7.. 38
17. Curzon Ashton 32.. 6 5 4.. 3 5 .9 42 51.. -9.. 37
18. Tamworth........ 33.. 6 4 6.. 4 3 10 54 60 -16. 37
19. FCUM............... 33.. 9 2 5.. 1 5 11 45 62 -17. 37
20. Telford............. 30.. 5 2 9.. 5 2 .7 40 53 -13.. 34
21. Gainsborough. 31.. 8 1 7.. 2 3 10 33 58 -25.. 34
22. North Ferriby... 33.. 0 4 12 2 3 12 17 82 -65.. 13

My picks to go down, as of today, Telford, Gainsborough and North Ferriby.
No change this week, Telford have three games on FCUM and Tamworth, but are three points behind. At the bottom of the table, points are more important than games in hand, there must be sleepless nights for FCUM and Tamworth however who cannot reply on Telford to not get points for either team to stay up. Gainsborough’s win today makes it exciting in the bottom 5. I think Curzon Ashton are better than FCUM and Tamwoorth and will finish above them at season's end.


Bottom 11 teams this week (As Southport and Nuneton have had a good run since the start of February, they leapfrogged over Stockport and Boston and I’ve added them below, they are both unlikely to go down with Tamworth and FCUM’s current form)

Southport; 4 games against common bottom 10 opponents; 13/03 Telford (H), 24/03 Alfreton (H), 31/03 Darlington (A), 07/04 Nuneaton (H)
Southport 3-0 Tamworth; Leading 1-0 at HT, it became a comfortable home win with two second half goals. Southport have won four in a row and are in the middle pack group of teams (8th place Bradford 45 points down to 13th place Darlington 42 points) who are both looking up more at a potential playoff spot as well as looking down at the relegation battle, Southport are now ten points in front of 20th place Telford who play each other on Tuesday night, a Southport win and the threat of relegation will surely be gone.

Nuneaton; (5 games); 17/03 Leamington (A), 30/03 Alfreton (A) Fri, 07/04 Southport (A), 21/04 Darlington (A), dd/mm Curzon (A)
Nuneaton 2-2 North Ferriby; Nuneaton take the lead twice, lead 2-1 at half time but are unable to beat last place North Ferriby who equalise on 71 mins. Nuneaton are also ten points in front of 20th place Telford.

Stockport
Stockport 0-1 Brackley; Two straight losses for Stockport combined with points for Southport and Nuneaton have Stockport in the middle pack group of teams, they are nine points in front of 20th place Telford, no cause for panic at this time. Stockport play Boston at home on Tuesday night.

Darlington; (6 games); 13/03 Tamworth (A), 17/03 North Ferriby (H), 24/03 Telford (A), 31/03 Southport (H), 14/04 FCUM (A), 21/04 Nuneaton (H)
Darlington 1-0 Curzon Ashton; A long time coming, after a Stephen Thompson penalty miss, a Josh Gillies open goal but David Syers' 88th min winner secures three points and lifts the Quakers into 13th place in the middle pack group of teams, eight points in front of 20th place Telford. The Tuesday night rearranged game with struggling Tamworth can further reduce relegation worries, a point will be a good result as it will maintain a five point gap with Tamworth, 3 points would be a great result.

Boston.
York 1-0 Boston; A 73rd min goal from ex Quaker David Ferguson looked to be all the action until the 89th min, three players (two for Boston) were sent off in three separate incidents. Boston are at the top of the relegation pack (Boston 14th place 39 points to Gainsborough 21st place 34 points), who need to get their season on track again (0-1-2 since Feb 1st). Boston play at Stockport on Tuesday night.

Alfreton; (5 games); 20/03 Telford (H), 24/03 Southport (A), 30/03 Nuneaton (H) Fri, 02/04 Curzon (A), 21/04 FCUM (H)
Bradford 3-3 Alfreton; A back and forth game, 1-0 became 1-2 at half time, 2-2, 2-3 until Bradford equalised in the 87th min denying Alfreton 3 away points. Alfreton rise to 15th place over Leamington, they have a big game in 10 days, home to 20th place Telford.

Leamington; (4 games); 17/03 Nuneaton (H), 31/03 FCUM (H), 02/04 Telford (A), 14/04 Curzon (H)
Leamington P-P Chorley; No game today, Leamington fall below Alfreton on goal difference to 16th place, remaining four points in front of 20th place Telford.

Curzon Ashton; (5 games); 24/03 Tamworth (H), 02/04 Alfreton (H), 09/04 Gainsborough (H), 14/04 Leamington (A), dd/mm Nuneaton (H)
Darlington 1-0 Curzon Ashton; An 88th min goal denies Curzon Ashton an away point. Curzon remain in 17th place, 3 points in front of 20th place Telford and 21st place Gainsborough.

Tamworth; (5 games); 13/03 Darlington (H), 24/03 Curzon (A), 30/03 North Ferriby (H) (Fri), 07/04 FCUM (H), 28/04 Gainsborough (A)
Southport 3-0 Tamworth; Another loss for Tamworth today, but they moved up one spot to 18th place as they were tied previously with FCUM (0-6) on -11 goal difference. With 1 point from the last 15, they need some points to pull away whilst hoping Telford cannot pick up points.

FC Utd of Man; (6 games); 20/03 Gainsborough (H), 31/03 Leamington (A), 07/04 Tamworth (A), 14/04 Darlington (H), 21/04 Alfreton (A), 28/04 North Ferriby
Harrogate 6-0 FCUM; 3-0 down at half time, FCUM were thrashed by top of the table Harrogate. FCUM have failed to score a league goal since January and have slide to 19th place, now with a worse goal difference than 20th place Telford, whilst 21st place Gainsborough with a 1-0 win today have narrowed the points gap to 3 behind FCUM. FCUM have also only picked up 1 point from the last 15 possible points. The 20/03 home game with Gainsborough will be a huge game for both teams.

Telford; (5 games); 13/03 Southport (A), 20/03 Alfreton (A), 24/03 Darlington (H), 02/04 Leamington (H), 21/04 Gainsborough (H)
Telford P-P Spennymoor; A waterlogged pitch prevented today’s game, Telford remain in 20th place but are now tied with Gainsborough on points who won 1-0. Telford’s February of 7 points did not pull them out of the bottom three, it kept them close to the teams battling to stay out of the bottom three. Three Bottom 11 teams (Southport, Alfreton and Darlington) who have improved since the start of February and away games at Bradford and Blyth complete Telford’s March fixture month, it is not going to be easy for them to escape the bottom three in March.

Gainsborough; (5 games); 23/03 FCUM (A), 02/04 North Ferriby (A), 09/04 Curzon (A), 21/04 Telford (A), 28/04 Tamworth (H)
Gainsborough 1-0 Kidderminster; A 93rd min winner was huge for Gainsborough today who have given themselves renewed optimism of staying up after three straight defeats. They stay in 21st place but are now tied with Telford on points but with inferior goal difference. If they can stay close to FCUM and Tamworth in March, 'easier' games in April may keep them from relegation.

North Ferriby; (4 games); 17/03 Darlington (A), 30/03 Tamworth (A) (Fri), 02/04 Gainsborough (H), 28/04 FCUM (A)
Nuneaton 2-2 North Ferriby; North Ferriby came back twice today, trailing 2-1 at half time, their second straight away game without defeat (Bradford 0-1 North Ferriby). This team had looked to be an easy three points to be won for their opponent until recently, they may upset more teams the rest of the season, at Darlington next week who will have noted their recent improved form.


Bottom 11 opponents and results prediction
...........Dar.......... Lea......... Alfr.......... Crz.......... FCM...... Tam......... Telf
13/03 Tam(A) 1................................................................ Dar(H) 1...Sou(A) 0
17/03 NFr(H) 3....Nun(H) 1
20/03......... ........................Telf(H) 3..................Gai(H) 3................. Alfr(A) 0
24/03 Telf(A) 1................... Sou(A) 0..Tam(H) 3................Crz(A) 0...Dar(H) 1
30/03................................. Nun(H) 1................................NFr(H) 3
31/03 Sou(A) 0....FCM(H) 3.................................Lea(A) 0
02/04..................Telf(A) 1.. Crz(A) 0...Alfr(H) 3.................................Lea(H) 1
07/04.................................................................Tam(A) 1 FCM(H) 1
09/04.................................................Gai(H) 3
14/04 FCM(A) 1...Crz(H) 1...................Lea(A) 1..Dar(H) 1
21/04 Nun(H) 1.................. FCM(H)1..................Alfr(A) 1.................Gai(H) 3
28/04 ................................................................NFr(H) 3. Gai(A) 3
ddmm ..................................................Nun(H) 1

Total ..............7..............6.............5.............11.............9.............8............5


Bottom 11 outstanding games against their opponents

Southport (4 games)
13/03 Telford(H)
24/03 Alfreton (H)
31/03 Darlington (A)
07/04 Nuneaton (H)

Nuneaton (5 games)
17/03 Leamington (A)
30/03 Alfreton (A) Fri
07/04 Southport (A)
21/04 Darlington (A)
dd/mm Curzon (A)

Darlington (6 games)
13/03 Tamworth (A)
17/03 North Ferriby (H)
24/03 Telford (A)
31/03 Southport (H)
14/04 FCUM (A)
21/04 Nuneaton (H)

Alfreton (5 games)
20/03 Telford (H)
24/03 Southport (A)
30/03 Nuneaton (H) Fri
02/04 Curzon (A)
21/04 FCUM (H)

Leamington (4 games)
17/03 Nuneaton (H)
31/03 FCUM (H)
02/04 Telford (A)
14/04 Curzon (H)

Curzon Ashton (5 games)
10/03 Darlington (A)
02/04 Alfreton (H)
09/04 Gainsborough (H)
14/04 Leamington (A)
dd/mm Nuneaton (H)

Tamworth (5 games)
13/03 Darlington (H)
24/03 Curzon (A)
30/03 North Ferriby (H) (Fri)
07/04 FCUM (H)
28/04 Gainsborough (A)

FCUM (6 games)
20/03 Gainsborough (H)
31/03 Leamington (A)
07/04 Tamworth (A)
14/04 Darlington (H)
21/04 Alfreton (A)
28/04 North Ferriby

Telford (5 games)
13/03 Southport (A)
20/03 Alfreton (A)
24/03 Darlington (H)
02/04 Leamington (H)
21/04 Gainsborough (H)

Gainsborough (5 games)
20/03 FCUM (A)
02/04 North Ferriby (A)
09/04 Curzon (A)
21/04 Telford (A)
28/04 Tamworth (H)

North Ferriby (4 games)
17/03 Darlington (A)
30/03 Tamworth (A)
02/04 Gainsborough (H)
28/04 FCUM (A)



This week’s Bottom 11 games

13/03 Tuesday
GAINSBOROUGH vs Brackley
SOUTHPORT....... vs TELFORD
Stockport........... vs Boston
TAMWORTH...... vs DARLINGTON

17/03 Saturday
DARLINGTON..... vs NORTH FERRIBY
ALFRETON....... vs Kidderminster
Blyth................ vs CURZON ASHTON
Boston............... vs FCUM
Bradford............ vs TELFORD
GAINSBOROUGH vs Stockport
LEAMINGTON..... vs NUNEATON
TAMWORTH...... vs Harrogate
York. ................ vs SOUTHPORT


Comments

Winners today
Darlington, a win is a win
Gainsborough, their season is not over with a great win over Kidderminster who can’t put away bottom half of the league teams, Darlington two weeks ago and now Gainsborough, Quakers fans would have lost their minds 12 months ago on the playoff push with results like this.

Losers today
FCUM, 0-6 at top of the table Harrogate, no league goals since January
Tamworth, 0-3 at Southport, Telford need to convert games in hand into points to pass either of these teams.

............................. Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts Max pts..one point per game
10. Southport....... 32.. 7 4 5.. 5 4 .7 49 55.. -6.. 44.......74
11. Nuneaton....... 33.. 7 5 5.. 5 3 .8 42 48.. -6.. 44.......71
12. Stockport........ 31.. 8 4 4.. 4 3 .8 53 45…. 8.. 43.......76
13. Darlington....... 33.. 8 4 5.. 3 5 .8 44 49.. -5.. 42.......69
14. Boston............ 30.. 8 4 4.. 3 2 .9 48 50.. -2.. 39.......75.........51
15. Alfreton........... 33.. 6 2 8.. 5 3 .9 56 58.. -2.. 38.......65.........47
16. Leamington..... 32.. 5 3 8.. 5 5 .6 43 50.. -7.. 38.......68.........48
17. Curzon Ashton 32.. 6 5 4.. 3 5 .9 42 51.. -9.. 37........67........47
18. Tamworth........ 33.. 6 4 6.. 4 3 10 54 60 -16. 37....,...64........46
19. FCUM............... 33.. 9 2 5.. 1 5 11 45 62 -17. 37........64........46
20. Telford............. 30.. 5 2 9.. 5 2 .7 40 53 -13.. 34........70........46
21. Gainsborough. 31.. 8 1 7.. 2 3 10 33 58 -25.. 34........67........45
22. North Ferriby... 33.. 0 4 12 2 3 12 17 82 -65.. 13........40........22

The chances of any team getting maximum points is zero, but what has been confirmed on Saturday, North Ferriby cannot catch Darlington so we cannot finish 22nd and last. We need two more teams to be unable to catch us mathematically and the focus can move to next season.

Tamworth and FCUM have to play each other, so their maximum points will be 64 and 61 if either team wins, or 62 if they draw.

Giving every team from 14th place down a point a game makes 47 points enough to stay up, Darlington are five points from that goal.

There are still a lot of games to play where Bottom 11 teams play each other, so points will be won, any team that gets 50% or more in their games will improve their chance of staying up, FCUM may save themselves in April with several ‘easier’ teams to play, this is also true for Gainsborough with an 'easier' April fixture list.

I’d like to think we could make a playoff push, but today we have Kidderminster played 31, points 49, Spennymoor played 27, points 48, we have played 33, points 42. We can win at Tamworth on Tuesday night to be within 3 points of Spennymoor, but 7 games in hand, if they win 7 points, they would be at 55 points. Southport, Nuneaton and Darlington have done very well since February 1st but grabbing a playoff berth after being in the Bottom 10, I’d like to believe it can happen, I’m not placing a bet on it. Let’s get it going in 2018/19 and not have a dreadful three month spell in the middle of that season, right now we are playing like a team that should be respected next season.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:26 am 
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Nice summary of the current situation, however one caveat is there are no 'easy' teams/wins at this stage of the season. Disciplinary points & red cards may be a deciding factor - with some key players being missing for different teams in vital matches due to bans etc. Still a very outside chance of Quakers making the playoffs which would be a nice financial boost, although we as a club are not ready to be promoted. A season of transition from MG regime and consolidating our position as a sustainable fan-owned club is progress enough for me. :clap: :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:57 pm 
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jjljks wrote:
Nice summary of the current situation, however one caveat is there are no 'easy' teams/wins at this stage of the season. Disciplinary points & red cards may be a deciding factor - with some key players being missing for different teams in vital matches due to bans etc. Still a very outside chance of Quakers making the playoffs which would be a nice financial boost, although we as a club are not ready to be promoted. A season of transition from MG regime and consolidating our position as a sustainable fan-owned club is progress enough for me. :clap: :thumbup:


Agreed jjljks, I don't use 'easy' teams/wins, I use 'easier', it has to be easier to play Gainsborough / Tamworth / Telford compared to Harrogate / Salford / Brackley etc, but the way teams can break and stick one in the back of the net, or pounce on a mistake from poor marking / bad backpass etc, no one is 'easy'.
Defensively the team has conceded less goals, so I assume they are playing more cohesively, maybe weather has been an effect, but both teams play on the same pitch and Darlington have been the winners in five games out of the last six, scoring 13, conceding 3 so something is working.
I put it down to Tommy Wright finding the right formations, and putting the right players in the right places, along the way rediscovering Stephen Thompson's form, and improved contributions from the full back positions (Luke Trotman and Ben O'Hanlon), Joe Wheatley and others. As there are several exciting young players, with Josh Heaton with a new contract, Jack Vaulks, Mitchell Glover, it is very encouraging going forward. The choices to be made about who is retained for next season are going to be tough choices, but the future appears brighter compared to everyones view at New Year.

I would like the excitement and financial boost from the playoff appearance, yesterday I added a new term to these write ups 'middle pack group of teams (8th place Bradford 45 points down to 13th place Darlington 42 points)'. After Tuesday night's game we will have 8 games left, we're chasing Spennymoor for 7th place. They have a fixture crunch with 15 games, that's a lot of games in hand over us.

I would be happy if we finish 9th - 11th, that's not conceding defeat in our pursuit of the playoffs, but if the club was offered the chance in January to finish in those positions, the reply would have been 'we'll take it'. A great improvement looking at it today, the season is not over, but to see Spennymoor, Bradford, Chorley, Southport, Nuneaton, Stockport and Boston (three games in hand of us) all have to underperform for two months, I wish for it, but I don't realistically expect it to happen, one of them at least will find their feet and be too much for us.

Let's get a good start in 2018/19, and be amongst the playoff teams or higher at the end of September, as we were in the prior season's since the club reformed.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:33 pm 
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a defeat on Saturday could relegate Ferriby.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:37 pm 
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Totally with you on the new category for the mid-table scrap. Also that we could be happy to remain in VLNN and even meeting Pools if they come down. :D


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:33 pm 
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Ging if we win on Tuesday, we'll could go into the top 11, what will you do then?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:09 pm 
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On current form FC Utd and Tamworth will go down along with North Ferriby but as we know form can change and a couple of wins turns it all around.

A lot of teams still to play each other and the play off chasing teams don't really seem that far ahead of the rest really, so even those games teams can pick up points.

I would guess at the 3rd bottom team getting to about 45 points. It's quite crazy if we had picked up a few more points when in a good position such as Alfreton Away (+2), Salford Home (+1), Chorley Home (+2) we would be in 8th position and hoping for a play-off opportunity, bet most teams have those games I suppose.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:05 am 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
Ginge if we win on Tuesday, we'll could go into the top 11, what will you do then?

Darlo_Pete, if we win at Tamworth, and Southport beat Telford on Tuesday night, we will be 11 points in front of Telford, so what do you recommend, end the Bottom 11 for this season, and nothing else

or build a new weekly post from currently
4th ..place York........ Played 33, Points 53 (playing away at Kidderminster)
down to
12th place Stockport. Played 31 Points 43 (playing Boston at home)
13th place Darlington Played 33 Points 42 (playing away at Tamworth)
14th place Boston..... Played 30 Points 39 (playing away at Stockport)

The Playoff Contenders and Playoff Pretenders

The Race for the Playoffs, who's in, who's out

Your thoughts Pete


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:58 am 
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Interesting problem to have and one not envisaged 6 or so weeks ago. I know we won't make the playoffs, but it would be nice to read about the race for the playoffs.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:21 am 
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Ginger lad you do a great ride with these stats.
Regarding Darlo pete, people with his thought process put the aliens off landing on our wonderful world


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:13 am 
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dfclincolnshire wrote:
Ginger lad you do a great ride with these stats.
Regarding Darlo pete, people with his thought process put the aliens off landing on our wonderful world


What's your problem, why the personal digs? I've always been supportive of what Ginge is doing and I'm sure he'll confirm that?


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:08 pm 
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dfclincolnshire wrote:
Ginger lad you do a great ride with these stats.
Regarding Darlo pete, people with his thought process put the aliens off landing on our wonderful world


LoL, I know where Darlo_Pete is coming from, it's ok. I do miss dry British / North Eastern sarcasm


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:10 pm 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
dfclincolnshire wrote:
Ginger lad you do a great ride with these stats.
Regarding Darlo pete, people with his thought process put the aliens off landing on our wonderful world


What's your problem, why the personal digs? I've always been supportive of what Ginge is doing and I'm sure he'll confirm that?


Darlo_Pete, you are supportive, thanks for your feedback


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:08 pm 
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Ginge01 wrote:
Darlo_Pete wrote:
dfclincolnshire wrote:
Ginger lad you do a great ride with these stats.
Regarding Darlo pete, people with his thought process put the aliens off landing on our wonderful world


What's your problem, why the personal digs? I've always been supportive of what Ginge is doing and I'm sure he'll confirm that?


Darlo_Pete, you are supportive, thanks for your feedback


Thanks for that, keep up the good work.


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