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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:39 am 
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This week’s (Tuesday and Wednesday) midweek games

Tuesday Apr 10th 2018
Blyth............... P-P Southport
Kidderminster. 3-1 Stockport
Leamington.... P-P Chorley
Nuneaton ...... 1-0 York
Spennymoor... 0-0 Boston

Wednesday Apr 11th
Curzon Ashton 2-0 Gainsborough



The Vanarama National League North, Wed Apr 11th 2018

............................. Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts
01. Salford .......... 38 15 2 3. 10 5 .3 72 43. 29.. 82
02. Harrogate...... 38 13 4 2. 11 3 .5 92 43. 49.. 79
03. Brackley......... 36 12 5 0.. 8 6 ..5 64 31. 33.. 71
04. Kidderminster 38 12 5 2.. 6 6 ..7 69 46. 23.. 65
05. Stockport....... 38 11 4 4.. 7 3 ..9 71 55. 16.. 61
06. Spennymoor... 35.. 8 4 3.. 9 3 ..8 65 56... 9.. 58
07. York................ 38.. 9 6 5.. 7 3 ..8 63 56... 7.. 57
08. Chorley........... 36.. 8 7 3.. 6 6 ..6 42 32. 10.. 55
09. Blyth............... 36.. 9 1 7.. 8 0 11 70 62... 8.. 52
10. Bradford. ....... 38.. 8 4 8.. 6 5 ..7 58 53... 5.. 51
11. Nuneaton....... 37.. 8 5 5.. 6 4 ..9 45 50.. -5.. 51
12. Boston........... 37.. 9 5 4.. 5 3 11 59 62.. -3.. 50
13. Darlington...... 37.. 9 4 6.. 3 7 ..8 51 51... 0.. 47
14. Southport....... 36.. 8 4 7.. 5 4 ..8 55 62.. -7.. 47
15. FCUM.............. 38 11 2 5.. 2 6 12 56 67 -11.. 47
16. Curzon Ashton 37.. 8 6 5.. 3 5 10 48 57.. -9.. 44
17. Leamington.... 37.. 7 3 8.. 5 5 ..9 45 56 -11.. 44
18. Alfreton........... 39.. 6 3 11 6 4 ..9 63 69.. -6.. 43
19. Tamworth........ 39.. 7 6 7.. 4 3 12 52 68 -16.. 42
20. Telford............. 36.. 6 3 10 6 2 ..9 46 62 -16.. 41
21. Gainsborough. 38.. 9 1 9.. 2 3 14 40 70 -30.. 37
22. North Ferriby... 38.. 1 5 13 2 3 14 21 96 -75.. 17

My picks to go down, Tamworth, Gainsborough and North Ferriby.
No change, Curzon Ashton’s win over Gainsborough makes it harder for Gainsborough to escape and moves Tamworth down to 4th bottom in 19th place. Curzon improved their chances of staying up.


Salford;
No game midweek;

Harrogate;
No game midweek;

Brackley;
No game midweek;

Kidderminster;
Kidderminster 3-1 Stockport; A big win for Kidderminster on Tuesday in the battle for 4th place. They got off to a great start, scoring after 4 mins, Stockport equalised after 9 mins. Kidder added a second on 20 mins, and again after 59 for a 3-1 win. Kidderminster remain in 4th place.

Stockport;
Kidderminster 3-1 Stockport; Despite equalising after 9 mins on Tuesday, Stockport playing well but were unable to match Kidder in front of goal and trailed 1-2 at half time before finishing 1-3 losers. They remain in 5th place and were assisted by York losing and Spennymoor only picking up a point against Boston. Stockport remain 6 points in front of 8th place Chorley and 9 points in front of 9th place Blyth.

Spennymoor;
Spennymoor 0-0 Boston; Played at Harrogate on Tuesday, Spennymoor did not play well against Boston and settled for a 0-0 draw. Spenny stay in to 6th, Spenny (58 points) has three games in hand on Kidderminster (65 points) and Stockport (61 points).

York;
Nuneaton 1-0 York; York were the weaker team on Tuesday, losing to a 74th min goal for Nuneaton. They remain in 7th place, Chorley are 2 points behind with two games in hand as York struggles to remain in a playoff place. Blyth also have two games in hand and are 5 points behind.

Chorley;
Leamington P-P Chorley; Waterlogged pitch preventing Tuesday’s game

Blyth;
Blyth P-P Southport; Waterlogged pitch preventing Tuesday’s game

Bradford P.A.;
No game midweek;

Nuneaton; (2 games); 16/04 Curzon (A), 21/04 Darlington (A)
Nuneaton 1-0 York; A Nuneaton goal in the 74th min was enough to win the three points on Tuesday.

Boston; (2 games); 24/04 Nuneaton (A), 28/04 Telford (H)
Spennymoor 0-0 Boston; Boston played well on Tuesday at Harrogate, and were denied a win by Spenny’s goalkeeper.

Darlington; (3 games against common bottom 11 opponents); 14/04 FCUM (A), 21/04 Nuneaton (H), 25/04 Southport (H)
No game midweek;

Southport; (1 game); 25/04 Darlington (A)
Blyth P-P Southport; Waterlogged pitch preventing Tuesday’s game

FC Utd of Man; (3 games); 14/04 Darlington (H), 21/04 Alfreton (A), 28/04 North Ferriby
No game midweek;

Curzon Ashton; (2 games); 14/04 Leamington (A ), 16/04 Nuneaton (H)
Curzon Ashton 2-0 Gainsborough; Curzon won this big game on Wednesday scoring just before half time and then just before full time to win 2-0. Curzon rise three places to 16th place, they lead 20th place Telford by 3 points who have a game in hand. More importantly, Curzon are above Alfreton and Tamworth in points and have two games in hand still to play.

Leamington; (2 games); 12/04 Telford (A), 14/04 Curzon (H)
Leamington P-P Chorley; Waterlogged pitch preventing Tuesday’s game. Leamington fall to 17th place after Curzon Ashton’s 2-0 win over Gainsborough.

Alfreton; (1 game); 21/04 FCUM (H)
No game midweek; Alfreton fall to 18th place after Curzon Ashton’s 2-0 win over Gainsborough.

Tamworth; (1 game); 28/04 Gainsborough (A)
No game midweek; Tamworth fall to 19th place after Curzon Ashton’s 2-0 win over Gainsborough. They must now watch the result of Thursday’s Telford vs Leamington game to see if they fall into the bottom 3 in 20th place. If Telford draw, they will be tied on points and goal difference, Tamworth will remain in 19th place on more goals scored. A Telford win will have Tamworth drop into the relegation zone.

Telford; (2 games); 12/04 Leamington (H), 21/04 Gainsborough (H)
Telford vs Leamington; To be played Thursday

Gainsborough; (3 games); 17/04 North Ferriby (A), 21/04 Telford (A), 28/04 Tamworth (H)
Curzon Ashton 2-0 Gainsborough; Gainsborough with a chance to put pressure on Alfreton, Tamworth and Curzon Ashton with a win on Wednesday finished up losing 0-2 to Curzon Ashton. They remain in 21st place, and are running out of games (4) to escape relegation.

North Ferriby; (2 games); 17/04 Gainsborough (H), 28/04 FCUM (A)
No game midweek;


The original Bottom 11 opponents and results prediction
...........Nun.......... Lea......... Alfr.......... Crz.......... FCM...... Tam......... Telf....... Gai
12/04 ................ Telf(A) 1 ................................................................ Lea(H)1
14/04 Sal(H) 0 ... Crz(H) 1 . Bra(A) 0 . Lea(A) 1 . Dar(H) 1 Kid(A)0 .. Sto(A) 0 Yor(H) 1
16/04 Crz(A) 1 ................................... Nun(H) 1
17/04 ................................................................ Yor(H) 1 ................ Bly(A) 0 NFr(A) 3
21/04 Dar(A) 0 ... Yor(A) 0 . FCM(H) 1 . Spe(H) 1 Alfr(A) 1 Cho(H) 0 . Gai(H) 3 Tel(A) 0
24/04 Bos (H) 0 .................................. Bly(A) 0 ............................... Spe(A) 0
28/04 Bly(H) 1 .... Sal(H) 0 . Cho(A) 0 . Har(A) 0 . NFr(H) 3 Gai(A) 1 . Bos(A) 1 Tam(H) 1
ddmm................. Cho(H)1


Total ..............2..............3..............1...............3.............6.............1..............5............5


The original Bottom 11 outstanding games against their opponents

Nuneaton (2 games)
16/04 Curzon (A) Mon
21/04 Darlington (A)

Darlington (3 games)
14/04 FCUM (A)
21/04 Nuneaton (H)
25/04 Southport (H)

Southport (1 game)
25/04 Darlington (A)

FCUM (3 games)
14/04 Darlington (H)
21/04 Alfreton (A)
28/04 North Ferriby

Leamington (2 games)
12/04 Telford (A)
14/04 Curzon (H)

Alfreton (1 game)
21/04 FCUM (H)

Tamworth (1 game)
28/04 Gainsborough (A)

Curzon Ashton (2 games)
14/04 Leamington (A)
16/04 Nuneaton (H) Mon

Telford (2 games)
12/04 Leamington (H)
21/04 Gainsborough (H)

Gainsborough (3 games)
17/04 North Ferriby (A)
21/04 Telford (A)
28/04 Tamworth (H)

North Ferriby (2 games)
17/04 Gainsborough (H)
28/04 FCUM (A)



This week’s games

12/04 Thursday
Telford............ vs Leamington
Spennymoor.... vs Brackley


14/04 Saturday
FCUM............... vs Darlington
Boston............ vs Bradford
Brackley.......... vs Alfreton
Chorley........... vs Blyth
Gainsborough vs York
Harrogate....... vs Southport
Kidderminster.. vs Tamworth
Leamington.... vs Curzon Ashton
Nuneaton ....... vs Salford
Spennymoor.... vs North Ferriby
Stockport........ vs Telford



Comments

Winners
Curzon Ashton on Wednesday beating Gainsborough
Kidderminster on Tuesday beating Stockport

Losers
Gainsborough, making it harder to escape relegation with their loss at Curzon Ashton
York, losing on Tuesday at Nuneaton, making it possible for Chorley and Blyth to pass them when they play their games in hand, pushing York out of competing in the playoffs.


............................. Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts Max pts..one point per game
01. Salford .......... 38 15 2 3. 10 5 .3 72 43. 29.. 82
02. Harrogate...... 38 13 4 2. 11 3 .5 92 43. 49.. 79
03. Brackley......... 36 12 5 0.. 8 6 ..5 64 31. 33.. 71
04. Kidderminster 38 12 5 2.. 6 6 ..7 69 46. 23.. 65
05. Stockport....... 38 11 4 4.. 7 3 ..9 71 55. 16.. 61
06. Spennymoor... 35.. 8 4 3.. 9 3 ..8 65 56... 9.. 58
07. York................ 38.. 9 6 5.. 7 3 ..8 63 56... 7.. 57
08. Chorley........... 36.. 8 7 3.. 6 6 ..6 42 32. 10.. 55
09. Blyth............... 36.. 9 1 7.. 8 0 11 70 62... 8.. 52
10. Bradford. ....... 38.. 8 4 8.. 6 5 ..7 58 53... 5.. 51.......63.........52
11. Nuneaton....... 37.. 8 5 5.. 6 4 ..9 45 50.. -5.. 51.......66.........56
12. Boston........... 37.. 9 5 4.. 5 3 11 59 62.. -3.. 50......65.........55
13. Darlington...... 37.. 9 4 6.. 3 7 ..8 51 51... 0.. 47.......62.........52
14. Southport....... 36.. 8 4 7.. 5 4 ..8 55 62.. -7.. 47.......65.........53
15. FCUM.............. 38 11 2 5.. 2 6 12 56 67 -11.. 47.......59.........51
16. Curzon Ashton 37.. 8 6 5.. 3 5 10 48 57.. -9.. 44.......59.........49
17. Leamington.... 37.. 7 3 8.. 5 5 ..9 45 56 -11.. 44.......59.........49
18. Alfreton........... 39.. 6 3 11 6 4 ..9 63 69.. -6.. 43.......52.........46
19. Tamworth........ 39.. 7 6 7.. 4 3 12 52 68 -16.. 42.......51.........45
20. Telford............. 36.. 6 3 10 6 2 ..9 46 62 -16.. 41.......59.........47
21. Gainsborough. 38.. 9 1 9.. 2 3 14 40 70 -30.. 37.......49.........41
22. North Ferriby... 38.. 1 5 13 2 3 14 21 96 -75.. 17


46 points might be the number of points to avoid relegation based on teams below us averaging 1 point per game, Tamworth will get to 45, Gainsborough to 41, Darlington are now on 47 points in the actual league table. Darlington are almost mathematically safe, Tamworth can only get to 51, Gainsborough can get to 49.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:36 am 
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As always, Ginge's scribbles and thoughts (which must take some time and effort, updating from version to version) are much appreciated.

I have had a gut feeling for some time that Alfreton are going down, with no logic to the thought whatsoever. Easy to be able to speculate like that when you are not involved; not so easy for the teams scrabbling to avoid the drop.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:11 am 
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Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:46 pm
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dsr wrote:
As always, Ginge's scribbles and thoughts (which must take some time and effort, updating from version to version) are much appreciated.

I have had a gut feeling for some time that Alfreton are going down, with no logic to the thought whatsoever. Easy to be able to speculate like that when you are not involved; not so easy for the teams scrabbling to avoid the drop.


Between them and Tamworth for the last spot, I can’t see anyone but Tamworth going down personally. Form since New Year is beyond atrocious


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:27 am 
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dsr wrote:
....

I have had a gut feeling for some time that Alfreton are going down, with no logic to the thought whatsoever. Easy to be able to speculate like that when you are not involved; not so easy for the teams scrabbling to avoid the drop.



Alfreton were woeful on Saturday against a jaded Spennymoor side. They lost 4-1 and if playing a less tired side, it could have been a much bigger score.

They were the worst step 2 side I have seen this season, both North or South. However, they may just have got enough points to stop Tamworth catching them

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:09 pm 
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dsr wrote:
As always, Ginge's scribbles and thoughts (which must take some time and effort, updating from version to version) are much appreciated.

I have had a gut feeling for some time that Alfreton are going down, with no logic to the thought whatsoever. Easy to be able to speculate like that when you are not involved; not so easy for the teams scrabbling to avoid the drop.


Yes, it takes hours to do on a Saturday, with 22 teams to update, no complaints, we are almost mathematically safe and it makes me feeling closer to the team doing it.

The remaining fixtures, yes, it's a little cryptic,

...........Nun.......... Lea......... Alfr.......... Crz.......... FCM...... Tam......... Telf....... Gai
12/04 ................ Telf(A) 1 ................................................................ Lea(H)1
14/04 Sal(H) 0 ... Crz(H) 1 . Bra(A) 0 . Lea(A) 1 . Dar(H) 1 Kid(A)0 .. Sto(A) 0 Yor(H) 1
16/04 Crz(A) 1 ................................... Nun(H) 1
17/04 ................................................................ Yor(H) 1 ................ Bly(A) 0 NFr(A) 3
21/04 Dar(A) 0 ... Yor(A) 0 . FCM(H) 1 . Spe(H) 1 Alfr(A) 1 Cho(H) 0 . Gai(H) 3 Tel(A) 0
24/04 Bos (H) 0 .................................. Bly(A) 0 ............................... Spe(A) 0
28/04 Bly(H) 1 .... Sal(H) 0 . Cho(A) 0 . Har(A) 0 . NFr(H) 3 Gai(A) 1 . Bos(A) 1 Tam(H) 1
ddmm................. Cho(H)1


Total ..............2..............3..............1...............3.............6.............1..............5............5

Alfreton; away to Brackley, home to FCUM, away to Chorley, I'm giving them a point at home to FCUM. So I'm adding 1 point to their current 43 to make 44.

Tamworth; away to Kidderminster, home to Chorley, away at Gainsborough, I can see them losing the first two, if Gainsborough has a mathematical chance of staying up, I'm giving it a draw. So I'm adding 1 point to their current 42 to make 43.

Curzon and Leamington would need to gain 1 point to 45 to be above Alfreton and Tamworth.

Telford are currently on 41, home to Leamington tonight (Thursday), a point, at Stockport, a loss, at Blyth, a loss, home to Gainsborough, a win, away at Spennymoor a loss, away at Boston, a loss. A win and two draws, 5 points, gets them to 46, that should be enough points to pass Alfreton and Tamworth.

Gainsborough; currently on 37, home to York, a point, at North Ferriby, should be a win. They could jump to 41 points, then have away at Telford, a loss, home to Tamworth, a draw, 42 points.

That would leave the league
19 Alfreton 44
20 Tamworth 43
21 Gainsborough 42

Gainsborough have the chance with playing North Ferriby, Telford and Tamworth to win all three and jump from 37 to 46. If they struggle as they did on Tuesday night, losing 0-2 at Curzon Ashton, they will be down.
Tamworth could survive by winning at Gainsborough on the last day and jumping over Alfreton who would go down.

An exciting three weekends to go.


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