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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:48 am 
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Today’s games, Saturday Apr 14th 2018

FCUM............. 1-2 Darlington
Boston........... 1-2 Bradford
Brackley......... 1-3 Alfreton
Chorley.......... 2-0 Blyth
Gainsborough 1-0 York
Harrogate...... 2-0 Southport
Kidderminster. 2-0 Tamworth
Leamington.... 0-0 Curzon Ashton
Nuneaton ...... 0-2 Salford
Spennymoor.... P-P North Ferriby
Stockport........ 1-0 Telford


The Vanarama National League North, Sat Apr 14th 2018

............................. Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts
01. Salford .......... 39 15 2 3. 11 5 .3 74 43. 31.. 85
02. Harrogate...... 39 14 4 2. 11 3 .5 94 43. 51.. 82
03. Brackley......... 38 12 5 1.. 9 6 ..5 68 34. 34.. 74
04. Kidderminster 39 13 5 2.. 6 6 ..7 71 46. 25.. 68
05. Stockport....... 39 12 4 4.. 7 3 ..9 72 55. 17.. 64
06. Chorley........... 37.. 9 7 3.. 6 6 ..6 44 32. 12.. 58
07. Spennymoor... 36.. 8 4 4.. 9 3 ..8 65 59... 6.. 58
08. York................ 39.. 9 6 5.. 7 3 ..9 63 57... 6.. 57
09. Bradford. ....... 39.. 8 4 8.. 7 5 ..7 60 54... 6.. 54
10. Blyth............... 37.. 9 1 7.. 8 0 12 70 64... 6.. 52
11. Nuneaton....... 38.. 8 5 6.. 6 4 ..9 45 52.. -7.. 51
12. Darlington...... 38.. 9 4 6.. 4 7 ..8 53 52... 1.. 50
13. Boston........... 38.. 9 5 5.. 5 3 11 60 64.. -4.. 50
14. Southport....... 37.. 8 4 7.. 5 4 ..9 55 64.. -9.. 47
15. FCUM.............. 39 11 2 6.. 2 6 12 57 69 -12.. 47
16. Alfreton........... 40.. 6 3 11 7 4 ..9 66 70.. -4.. 46
17. Curzon Ashton 38.. 8 6 5.. 3 6 10 48 57.. -9.. 45
18. Leamington..... 39.. 7 4 8.. 5 5 10 47 59 -12.. 45
19. Telford............. 38.. 7 3 10 6 2 10 49 65 -16.. 44
20. Tamworth........ 40.. 7 6 7.. 4 3 13 52 70 -18.. 42
21. Gainsborough. 39 10 1 9.. 2 3 14 41 70 -29.. 40
22. North Ferriby... 38.. 1 5 13 2 3 14 21 96 -75.. 17

My picks to go down, Tamworth, Gainsborough and North Ferriby.
No change, Alfreton’s surprise win at Brackley lifts them 4 points clear of Tamworth. Could Gainsborough (remaining games are North Ferriby (A), Telford (A), Tamworth (H)) jump over both Telford and Tamworth to stay up? Leamington on 45 points have no Bottom 11 opponents left with 3 games to go.



Salford;
Nuneaton 0-2 Salford; Two goals before half time were enough for Salford to win and remain on top.

Harrogate;
Harrogate 2-0 Southport; Harrogate got off to a great start with a goal after 4 mins by ex-Quaker Mark Beck. They added a second goal after 58 mins to win 2-0. They remain 3 points behind Salford, each team with three games to go.

Brackley;
Brackley 1-3 Alfreton; Brackley’s unbeaten home record fell today against lowly Alfreton with goals after 1, 30 & 38 mins, they were 0-3 at half time. A consolation goal after an hour was their response. Brackley remain in 3rd place, 6 points ahead of Kidderminster.

Kidderminster;
Kidderminster 2-0 Tamworth; This game was tied at half time, Kidder scoring in the 63rd and 66th min to win 2-0 and maintain 4th place in the table.

Stockport;
Stockport 1-0 Telford; Stockport were able to break down Telford in the 74th min to secure the three points and make their playoff place more likely.

Chorley;
Chorley 2-0 Blyth; A game between 8th place Chorley and 9th place Blyth was an even matched event until Chorley scored in the 41st min, and added a second after 63 mins. Chorley rise to 6th place (58 points) above Spennymoor (58) who did not play and York (57) who lost at Gainsborough. Chorley have two games in hand on York and have a great chance to win a playoff spot.

Spennymoor;
Spennymoor P-P North Ferriby; No game today, waterlogged pitch. Spenny fall to 7th with Chorley’s win over Blyth, Spenny (58 points) have three games in hand on York (57 points) and Bradford (54).

York;
Gainsborough 1-0 York; York fell to 21st place Gainsborough who won with a 54th min goal. York (57 points) fall out of the playoff places, they have three games left, Chorley has 1 more point (58), 5 games to play, Spennymoor has also 1 more point (58), 6 games to play. Blyth with two games in hand could pass York, Blyth are 5 points back (52). Stockport 5th place with 64 points need 3 points from 3 games and York will not be able to catch them, York are almost certainly battling for 6th or 7th place in the playoffs.

Bradford P.A.;
Boston 1-2 Bradford; Bradford fought back after conceding a goal in the 3rd min to level it in the 36th min, and grabbed a winner in the 92nd min. Bradford rise to 9th place.

Blyth;
Chorley 2-0 Blyth; Blyth fought hard but went down to a goal in each half against Chorley 0-2. Blyth fall to 10th place as Bradford are two points ahead, Blyth have two games in hand. There is a real danger Blyth will not make the playoffs, they trail 6th place Chorley by 6 points with 5 games to play. 7th place Spennymoor have 5 more points and a game in hand. A good reason for Blyth missing the playoffs, today was their 12th away loss, only the bottom three teams have lost more away games.

Nuneaton; (2 games); 16/04 Curzon (A), 21/04 Darlington (A)
Nuneaton 0-2 Salford; Nuneaton conceded goals in the 19th and 44th min to lose 0-2.

Darlington; (2 games against common bottom 11 opponents); 21/04 Nuneaton (H), 25/04 Southport (H)
FCUM 1-2 Darlington; Darlington took the lead after 25 mins with a diving header from Josh Gillies. FCUM equalised just before half time. Darlington were given a gift winner when the FCUM goalkeeper misplayed a long pass for Reece Styche to drive home. This win guarantees Darlington cannot be relegated.

Boston; (2 games); 24/04 Nuneaton (A), 28/04 Telford (H)
Boston 1-2 Bradford; Boston got off to a great start scoring after 3 mins, but Bradford replied after 36 and 92 mins to take home the three points. With losses to teams near the bottom, Boston became mathematically safe from relegation.

Southport; (1 game); 25/04 Darlington (A)
Harrogate 2-0 Southport; Southport were not able to handle Harrogate today, conceding a goal in each half to lose 0-2.

FC Utd of Man; (2 games); 21/04 Alfreton (A), 28/04 North Ferriby
FCUM 1-2 Darlington; After falling behind after 25 mins, FCUM equalised in the 44th min. Darlington scored the winner in the second half.

Alfreton; (1 game); 21/04 FCUM (H)
Brackley 1-3 Alfreton; Alfreton had won one of their previous 10 games when they travelled to 3rd place Brackley who were unbeaten at home. Alfreton had a perfect start with a goal after a minute, two more goals after 30 and 38 mins gave them a 3-0 half time lead, the game finished 3-1. Alfreton rise to 16th place, 4 points in front of Tamworth, Alfreton have a better goal difference(-4 to -16), Tamworth have 2 games left in the season.

Curzon Ashton; (1 games); 16/04 Nuneaton (H)
Leamington 0-0 Curzon Ashton; After today’s 0-0 draw at Leamington, Curzon fall to 17th place on goal difference (-9), they remain tied on 45 points with Leamington (-12). 20th Tamworth are on 42 points (-18).

Leamington; (0 games);
Leamington 0-0 Curzon Ashton; After a home 0-0 draw with Curzon Ashton, Leamington are in 18th place, three points above 20th place Tamworth and a better goal difference (-12 to -18).

Telford; (1 game); 21/04 Gainsborough (H)
Stockport 1-0 Telford; Telford’s hope of bringing home a point lasted until the only goal was scored in the 74th min. They were unable for force home an equaliser. Telford fall to 19th place due to Alfreton’s win, they are two points in front of 20th place Tamworth and still have two games in hand on Tamworth.

Tamworth; (1 game); 28/04 Gainsborough (A)
Kidderminster 2-0 Tamworth; Tamworth were unable to secure any points today at Kidderminster, although they were level at half time, two second goals defeated them. Tamworth remain in 20th place with two games to go, probably needing at least a win and a draw to stay up. Next Saturday, home to Chorley.

Gainsborough; (3 games); 17/04 North Ferriby (A), 21/04 Telford (A), 28/04 Tamworth (H)
Gainsborough 1-0 York; Gainsborough got a huge win today, beating York 1-0 with a 54th min goal. Gainsborough remains in 21st place, trailing 19th place Telford by 4 points. Their last three games are against the other teams in the bottom 4, starting with North Ferriby on Tuesday night, a win would lift them to 20th place.

North Ferriby; (2 games); 17/04 Gainsborough (H), 28/04 FCUM (A)
Spennymoor P-P North Ferriby; No game today, waterlogged pitch.


The original Bottom 11 opponents and results prediction
...........Nun.......... Lea......... Alfr.......... Crz.......... FCM...... Tam......... Telf....... Gai
16/04 Crz(A) 1 ................................... Nun(H) 1
17/04 ................................................................ Yor(H) 1 ................ Bly(A) 0 NFr(A) 3
19/04................. Cho(H)1
21/04 Dar(A) 0 ... Yor(A) 0 . FCM(H) 1 . Spe(H) 1 Alfr(A) 1 Cho(H) 0 . Gai(H) 3 Tel(A) 0
24/04 Bos (H) 0 .................................. Bly(A) 0 ............................... Spe(A) 0
28/04 Bly(H) 1 .... Sal(H) 0 . Cho(A) 0 . Har(A) 0 . NFr(H) 3 Gai(A) 1 . Bos(A) 1 Tam(H) 1

Total ..............2..............1..............1...............2.............5.............1..............4............4


The original Bottom 11 outstanding games against their opponents

Nuneaton (2 games)
16/04 Curzon (A) Mon
21/04 Darlington (A)

Darlington (2 games)
21/04 Nuneaton (H)
25/04 Southport (H)

Southport (1 game)
25/04 Darlington (A)

FCUM (2 games)
21/04 Alfreton (A)
28/04 North Ferriby

Leamington (0 games)

Alfreton (1 game)
21/04 FCUM (H)

Tamworth (1 game)
28/04 Gainsborough (A)

Curzon Ashton (1 game)
16/04 Nuneaton (H) Mon

Telford (1 game)
21/04 Gainsborough (H)

Gainsborough (3 games)
17/04 North Ferriby (A)
21/04 Telford (A)
28/04 Tamworth (H)

North Ferriby (2 games)
17/04 Gainsborough (H)
28/04 FCUM (A)



This week’s games

16/04 Monday
Curzon Ashton vs Nuneaton

17/04 Tuesday
Blyth............... vs Telford
Boston............ vs Harrogate
Brackley.......... vs Bradford
Chorley........... vs Stockport
FCUM............... vs York
North Ferriby... vs Gainsborough
Southport....... vs Salford
Spennymoor.... vs Kidderminster

19/04 Thursday
Spennymoor.... vs Darlington
Blyth............... vs Southport
Leamington.... vs Chorley

21/04 Saturday
Darlington...... vs Nuneaton
Alfreton.......... vs FCUM
Blyth............... vs Stockport
Bradford......... vs Harrogate
Curzon Ashton vs Spennymoor
North Ferriby... vs Kidderminster
Salford............ vs Boston
Southport....... vs Brackley
Tamworth....... vs Chorley
Telford............ vs Gainsborough
York................ vs Leamington


Comments

Winners
Darlington, winners today, and mathematically safe from relegation
Alfreton, winning at Brackley, possibly the game that keeps them up
Gainsborough, giving themselves a chance to stay up with a win over York

Losers
York, losing at Gainsborough, making a playoff place harder
Blyth, losing at Chorley, also making a playoff place harder
Tamworth, one more loss closer to relegation

............................. Pd .W D L..W D L...F..A...GD..Pts Max pts..one point per game
01. Salford .......... 39 15 2 3. 11 5 .3 74 43. 31.. 85
02. Harrogate...... 39 14 4 2. 11 3 .5 94 43. 51.. 82
03. Brackley......... 38 12 5 1.. 9 6 ..5 68 34. 34.. 74
04. Kidderminster 39 13 5 2.. 6 6 ..7 71 46. 25.. 68
05. Stockport....... 39 12 4 4.. 7 3 ..9 72 55. 17.. 64
06. Chorley........... 37.. 9 7 3.. 6 6 ..6 44 32. 12.. 58
07. Spennymoor... 36.. 8 4 4.. 9 3 ..8 65 59... 6.. 58
08. York................ 39.. 9 6 5.. 7 3 ..9 63 57... 6.. 57
09. Bradford. ....... 39.. 8 4 8.. 7 5 ..7 60 54... 6.. 54
10. Blyth............... 37.. 9 1 7.. 8 0 12 70 64... 6.. 52
11. Nuneaton....... 38.. 8 5 6.. 6 4 ..9 45 52.. -7.. 51
12. Darlington...... 38.. 9 4 6.. 4 7 ..8 53 52... 1.. 50
13. Boston........... 38.. 9 5 5.. 5 3 11 60 64.. -4.. 50
14. Southport....... 37.. 8 4 7.. 5 4 ..9 55 64.. -9.. 47.......62.........52
15. FCUM.............. 39 11 2 6.. 2 6 12 57 69 -12.. 47.......56.........50
16. Alfreton........... 40.. 6 3 11 7 4 ..9 66 70.. -4.. 46.......52.........48
17. Curzon Ashton 38.. 8 6 5.. 3 6 10 48 57.. -9.. 45.......57.........49
18. Leamington..... 39.. 7 4 8.. 5 5 10 47 59 -12.. 45.......54.........48
19. Telford............. 38.. 7 3 10 6 2 10 49 65 -16.. 44.......56......... 48
20. Tamworth........ 40.. 7 6 7.. 4 3 13 52 70 -18.. 42.......48.........44
21. Gainsborough. 39 10 1 9.. 2 3 14 41 70 -29.. 40.......49.........43
22. North Ferriby... 38.. 1 5 13 2 3 14 21 96 -75.. 17

Darlington are mathematically safe from relegation. Congratulations Tommy Wright, Alan White, the players and the staff.

45 points might be the number of points to avoid relegation based on teams below us averaging 1 point per game, Tamworth will get to 44, Gainsborough to 43.


Last edited by Ginge01 on Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:43 am 
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Thanks again Ginge, for shedding some light on the run in and what is happening to other teams. As Quaker fans we obviously focus on DFC, so now we are 'safe', we have the luxury to check out others. Just glad I am not a York City fan as would not be happy until MG commits Hari Kari in front of the David Longhurst stand as he has overseen the demise of their chances of promotion. Likewise, Spennymoor fans must be wondering what they had done to displease the weather gods with the result that only a superhuman efforts to play & win 3 games in a week will be enough to get them into the playoffs. Similarly Blyth can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye as their abysmal away form continues. At least if these three teams don't make the playoffs, we will have some more local derbies again next season.

A challenge for Ginge - prediction for the playoffs. Think you are probably right about the relegation candidates, but these new playoff arrangements are making it even more complex to pick out the winners!


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:10 am 
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Playoff places should be the current top 7, as long as Spennymoor can cope with their fixture headache. Ironically a win against us on Thursday could seel York's fate, but I'd settle for them winning on Tuesday and us winning on Thursday.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:29 am 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
Playoff places should be the current top 7, as long as Spennymoor can cope with their fixture headache. Ironically a win against us on Thursday could seel York's fate, but I'd settle for them winning on Tuesday and us winning on Thursday.


Sorry, meant to ask for promotion winners! Not much of a prediction as to who gets into the playoffs :)


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:08 pm 
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jjljks wrote:
Thanks again Ginge, for shedding some light on the run in and what is happening to other teams. As Quaker fans we obviously focus on DFC, so now we are 'safe', we have the luxury to check out others. Just glad I am not a York City fan as would not be happy until MG commits Hari Kari in front of the David Longhurst stand as he has overseen the demise of their chances of promotion. Likewise, Spennymoor fans must be wondering what they had done to displease the weather gods with the result that only a superhuman efforts to play & win 3 games in a week will be enough to get them into the playoffs. Similarly Blyth can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye as their abysmal away form continues. At least if these three teams don't make the playoffs, we will have some more local derbies again next season.

A challenge for Ginge - prediction for the playoffs. Think you are probably right about the relegation candidates, but these new playoff arrangements are making it even more complex to pick out the winners!


Thanks jjljks

Predictions, the season will end with the teams 2nd through 7th remaining in the same places, Chorley and Spennymoor have enough games and points to prevent York and Blyth getting into the Top 7.

Playoffs
5th place Stockport vs 6th place Chorley, Chorley win
4th place Kidderminster vs 7th place Spennymoor, Kidderminster win

2nd place Harrogate vs Chorley, Harrogate win
3rd place Brackley vs Kidderminster, Brackley win

Final
Harrogate vs Brackley, Harrogate 1-0 or 2-1, both games this season were draws


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:23 pm 
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I dont think top spot is a certainty. I can see harrogate winning every game and salford maybe dropping 3 points. Bookies probably have it about right. Harrogate 4/1 but would love to see Salfords nerves get to them.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:15 pm 
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I wonder what odds we’d get on finishing above York. Ridiculous long ones I’d expect. But I’d fancy it if we’d have a couple more matches.

York can get 66, Blyth 68. Can’t see either of them getting there. Agree that the existing 7 will be looking upwards beyond The end of the month.

We have already got the max points I was expecting us to get. Can we get to 57 though? Two wins at home is doable. And then draw at Spenny? Who will desperately need a win. Then losing on the last day. Stockport are flying.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:50 pm 
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Except Stockport may be already assured of Playoffs and save their first team. They might want a win for better placing and better playoff position, however.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:30 am 
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Ginge01 wrote:
jjljks wrote:
Thanks again Ginge, for shedding some light on the run in and what is happening to other teams. As Quaker fans we obviously focus on DFC, so now we are 'safe', we have the luxury to check out others. Just glad I am not a York City fan as would not be happy until MG commits Hari Kari in front of the David Longhurst stand as he has overseen the demise of their chances of promotion. Likewise, Spennymoor fans must be wondering what they had done to displease the weather gods with the result that only a superhuman efforts to play & win 3 games in a week will be enough to get them into the playoffs. Similarly Blyth can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye as their abysmal away form continues. At least if these three teams don't make the playoffs, we will have some more local derbies again next season.

A challenge for Ginge - prediction for the playoffs. Think you are probably right about the relegation candidates, but these new playoff arrangements are making it even more complex to pick out the winners!


Thanks jjljks

Predictions, the season will end with the teams 2nd through 7th remaining in the same places, Chorley and Spennymoor have enough games and points to prevent York and Blyth getting into the Top 7.

Playoffs
5th place Stockport vs 6th place Chorley, Chorley win
4th place Kidderminster vs 7th place Spennymoor, Kidderminster win

2nd place Harrogate vs Chorley, Harrogate win
3rd place Brackley vs Kidderminster, Brackley win

Final
Harrogate vs Brackley, Harrogate 1-0 or 2-1, both games this season were draws


Cheers Ginge, hope you are right as I think I read that if Harrogate do get promoted, this triggers a clause in Beck's transfer contract whereby we get another £5k payment. :thumbup:
Nearly as good as a cup run for the coffers, but let TW do that next season.


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