Relegation Watch

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JE93
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Relegation Watch

Post by JE93 » Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:10 pm

While there seems some consensus on the forum that we will be safe, perhaps by there being 3 worse teams rather than our own skill, it got me thinking about doing my best Ginge impression and trying to look more mathematically at points amount which would see us safe.

Table

Image

Teams

Darlington
Result: Telford 3 - 1 Darlington
Games played: 33
Points: 37
Games left to play: (9) Hereford (a), Chester (h), Nuneaton (a), Stockport (a), FC United (h), Boston (a), Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Guiseley (a), Leamington (h).
Form: WDLDL
Total potential points: 64
PPG: 1.12
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: With 5 games to play against the teams around us, in theory, we have to best opportunity to pick up point. Whether that turns out to be the case with this Jekyll and Hyde team. Based on the PPG calculation we would need just 2 more points to confirm safety above Ashton's projected total.

Leamington
Result: Bradford PA 2 - 1 Leamington
Games played: 33
Points: 36
Games left to play: (9) Chester (a), Southport (h), Chorley (a), Ashton (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Alfreton (h), Kidderminster (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a).
Form: DLLLL
Total potential points: 63
PPG: 1.09
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 46
Comment: Paul Holleran likely to help Leamington survive again on what is likely to be one of the smallest budgets in the league. Two games against teams around them (including us) and some teams in mid-table obscurity means I think they'll more than likely be safe with games to spare.

Hereford
Result: No game
Games played: 32
Points: 36
Games left to play: (10) Darlington (h), Brackley (h), Alfreton (a), Guiseley (h), Spennymoor (a), Stockport (h), Southport (a), Telford (h), Altrincham (a), Boston (h).
Form: LWDDD
Total potential points: 66
PPG: 1.13
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: Very tough looking run in for Hereford, with promotion chasers Spenny, Brackley, Stockport, Telford and Altrincham to play. Obviously they can aid their cause by beating us on Saturday, but it's tough to see how many more points they might win after that.

Guiseley
Result: Curzon Ashton 1 - 0 Guiseley
Games played: 33
Points: 33
Games left to play: (9) Spennymoor (a), Curzon Ashton (h), Hereford (a), York (h), Brackley (a), Ashton (h), Blyth (a), Darlington (h), Kidderminster (a).
Form: DDLLL
Total potential points: 60
PPG: 1
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 42
Comment: A team that has struggled to score goals all season, they commonly seem to lose to the odd goal. With 3 games to play against the teams around them, there is the opportunity to pick up points. The questions remains whether they can score the goals to drag themselves away from Ashton.

Ashton United
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 30
Games left to play: (9) Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Blyth Spartans (h), Leamington (a), Spennymoor (h), Guiseley (a), Chester (h), Boston (a), Altrincham (h) [Stockport (a) To be re-arranged].
Form: DLWLL
Total potential points: 57
PPG: 0.91
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 38
Comment: A team that seemingly concede too many goals to remain in this league (71 the most in the league). The loss of top scorer Nick Chadwick (9) to Altrincham for the run in will hardly help their chances. With games again promotion chasing Spenny, Stockport, Altrincham and Bradford PA it's hard to see them making up the points they need.

FC United of Manchester
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 27
Games left to play: (9) Telford (a), York (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a), Kidderminster (h), Alfreton (a), Blyth (h), Brackley (a).
Form: LLDDD
Total potential points: 54
PPG: 0.82
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 34
Comment: FC United have struggled throughout the season 3 draws in their last would hint that they still are competitive but its wins they need if they want to get closer to safety. Only 2 games to play against fellow strugglers (Nuneaton and Darlington) means that if they're going to escape the drop they'll have to do it the hard way.

Nuneaton Borough
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 16
Games left to play: (9) Alfreton (h), Blyth Spartans (a), Darlington (h), FC United (a), Chester (h), Bradford (Park Avenue) (a), Altrincham (h), Leamington (a), Stockport (h).
Form: LLLLL
Total potential points: 43
PPG: 0.48
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 20
Comment: All things point in one direction for Nuneaton unfortunately, perhaps their fans will simply be grateful to have a club to follow at the end of the season. I think it's safe to say they are as good as relegated.

Predicted Bottom 3:
20) Ashton United
21) FC United
22) Nuneaton

Hard to see any change in the bottom 3 at the moment based on the games still to be played. Could be some interesting rework needed if unfortunately Nuneaton can't see out the season. But i think those currently outside of the relegation will survive blessed by the fact there are three worse teams.

Upcoming Fixtures:

Saturday 9th March
AFC Telford United V FC United of Manchester
Ashton United V Bradford (Park Avenue)
Brackley Town V Stockport County
Chester V Leamington
Chorley V Kidderminster Harriers
Curzon Ashton V Blyth Spartans
Hereford V Darlington
Nuneaton Borough V Alfreton Town
Southport V Boston United
Spennymoor Town V Guiseley
York City V Altrincham

Comments:
Tough games for FC United away at Telford and Nuneaton at home to Alfreton, who have put together a run to pull themselves clear.
Similarly tough trips for Guiseley away to Spennymoor and Leamington travelling to Chester who have one of the best home records in the league.
The game for us against Hereford seems the pick of the games down at the bottom of the league. A win could be the start of pulling away and making ourselves safe from the battle at the bottom. Similarly for Hereford with a tough run in they will be keen to get points on the board.

Vodka_Vic
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by Vodka_Vic » Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:14 pm

That's a great effort. I'll be the first to sing it. "Are you Ginge in disguise?"

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loan_star
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by loan_star » Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:16 pm

Nice bit of work JE93

LoidLucan
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by LoidLucan » Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:37 pm

We would have to make a concentrated effort to be relegated but such is the alarming inconsistency of Darlo under TW I would expect us to be given some sleepless nights along the way.

tdk1
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by tdk1 » Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:40 pm

LoidLucan wrote:We would have to make a concentrated effort to be relegated but such is the alarming shitness of Darlo under TW I would expect us to be given some sleepless nights along the way.
Fixed.

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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by LoidLucan » Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:52 pm

I'd agree that 8 wins in 33 games (35 including the cups) doesn't read well. And when you are seeking to get fans to increase the club's income it's vital that most of them have faith and confidence in the manager to take the club forward.

jjljks
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by jjljks » Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:50 am

Thanks for pulling the stats together. We could all sleep more soundly in our beds if we could pull out a win at Hereford on Sat. OK we have been inconsistent this season so not beyond the realms of possibility that we could put in a shift and bring 3 pts home

lo36789
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by lo36789 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:08 am

It is actually interesting seeing the patterns in the table at this stage. There are basically 5 groupings.

- Promotion > 15 wins (>50% win ratio)
- Playoffs = 15 wins
- Another pack of 12-14 wins
- Us in a pack of 4 who have drawn / lost about 12 games
- Bottom three who are single figures for wins / defeats and lost c.20

I think you have hit it on the head Guiseley don’t score enough (so draw instead of win) and Ashton concede too many (lose instead of draw) which is why their stats at this stage look a little out of sync with the rest and is probably the deciding factor on who stays up out of those two - ie who can better correct their shortfalls in the next 9 games.

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Quaker85
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by Quaker85 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:11 am

I posted this last week:

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/nati ... /predicted


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Darlo_Pete
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by Darlo_Pete » Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:23 am

Only Hereford has better form than us of the teams below us in the league, so yes our fans are flapping, but fans of other teams below us will be flapping more than us.

H1987
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by H1987 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:07 am

JE93 wrote:While there seems some consensus on the forum that we will be safe, perhaps by there being 3 worse teams rather than our own skill, it got me thinking about doing my best Ginge impression and trying to look more mathematically at points amount which would see us safe.

Table

Image

Teams

Darlington
Result: Telford 3 - 1 Darlington
Games played: 33
Points: 37
Games left to play: (9) Hereford (a), Chester (h), Nuneaton (a), Stockport (a), FC United (h), Boston (a), Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Guiseley (a), Leamington (h).
Form: WDLDL
Total potential points: 64
PPG: 1.12
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: With 5 games to play against the teams around us, in theory, we have to best opportunity to pick up point. Whether that turns out to be the case with this Jekyll and Hyde team. Based on the PPG calculation we would need just 2 more points to confirm safety above Ashton's projected total.

Leamington
Result: Bradford PA 2 - 1 Leamington
Games played: 33
Points: 36
Games left to play: (9) Chester (a), Southport (h), Chorley (a), Ashton (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Alfreton (h), Kidderminster (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a).
Form: DLLLL
Total potential points: 63
PPG: 1.09
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 46
Comment: Paul Holleran likely to help Leamington survive again on what is likely to be one of the smallest budgets in the league. Two games against teams around them (including us) and some teams in mid-table obscurity means I think they'll more than likely be safe with games to spare.

Hereford
Result: No game
Games played: 32
Points: 36
Games left to play: (10) Darlington (h), Brackley (h), Alfreton (a), Guiseley (h), Spennymoor (a), Stockport (h), Southport (a), Telford (h), Altrincham (a), Boston (h).
Form: LWDDD
Total potential points: 66
PPG: 1.13
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: Very tough looking run in for Hereford, with promotion chasers Spenny, Brackley, Stockport, Telford and Altrincham to play. Obviously they can aid their cause by beating us on Saturday, but it's tough to see how many more points they might win after that.

Guiseley
Result: Curzon Ashton 1 - 0 Guiseley
Games played: 33
Points: 33
Games left to play: (9) Spennymoor (a), Curzon Ashton (h), Hereford (a), York (h), Brackley (a), Ashton (h), Blyth (a), Darlington (h), Kidderminster (a).
Form: DDLLL
Total potential points: 60
PPG: 1
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 42
Comment: A team that has struggled to score goals all season, they commonly seem to lose to the odd goal. With 3 games to play against the teams around them, there is the opportunity to pick up points. The questions remains whether they can score the goals to drag themselves away from Ashton.

Ashton United
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 30
Games left to play: (9) Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Blyth Spartans (h), Leamington (a), Spennymoor (h), Guiseley (a), Chester (h), Boston (a), Altrincham (h) [Stockport (a) To be re-arranged].
Form: DLWLL
Total potential points: 57
PPG: 0.91
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 38
Comment: A team that seemingly concede too many goals to remain in this league (71 the most in the league). The loss of top scorer Nick Chadwick (9) to Altrincham for the run in will hardly help their chances. With games again promotion chasing Spenny, Stockport, Altrincham and Bradford PA it's hard to see them making up the points they need.

FC United of Manchester
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 27
Games left to play: (9) Telford (a), York (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a), Kidderminster (h), Alfreton (a), Blyth (h), Brackley (a).
Form: LLDDD
Total potential points: 54
PPG: 0.82
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 34
Comment: FC United have struggled throughout the season 3 draws in their last would hint that they still are competitive but its wins they need if they want to get closer to safety. Only 2 games to play against fellow strugglers (Nuneaton and Darlington) means that if they're going to escape the drop they'll have to do it the hard way.

Nuneaton Borough
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 16
Games left to play: (9) Alfreton (h), Blyth Spartans (a), Darlington (h), FC United (a), Chester (h), Bradford (Park Avenue) (a), Altrincham (h), Leamington (a), Stockport (h).
Form: LLLLL
Total potential points: 43
PPG: 0.48
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 20
Comment: All things point in one direction for Nuneaton unfortunately, perhaps their fans will simply be grateful to have a club to follow at the end of the season. I think it's safe to say they are as good as relegated.

Predicted Bottom 3:
20) Ashton United
21) FC United
22) Nuneaton

Hard to see any change in the bottom 3 at the moment based on the games still to be played. Could be some interesting rework needed if unfortunately Nuneaton can't see out the season. But i think those currently outside of the relegation will survive blessed by the fact there are three worse teams.

Upcoming Fixtures:

Saturday 9th March
AFC Telford United V FC United of Manchester
Ashton United V Bradford (Park Avenue)
Brackley Town V Stockport County
Chester V Leamington
Chorley V Kidderminster Harriers
Curzon Ashton V Blyth Spartans
Hereford V Darlington
Nuneaton Borough V Alfreton Town
Southport V Boston United
Spennymoor Town V Guiseley
York City V Altrincham

Comments:
Tough games for FC United away at Telford and Nuneaton at home to Alfreton, who have put together a run to pull themselves clear.
Similarly tough trips for Guiseley away to Spennymoor and Leamington travelling to Chester who have one of the best home records in the league.
The game for us against Hereford seems the pick of the games down at the bottom of the league. A win could be the start of pulling away and making ourselves safe from the battle at the bottom. Similarly for Hereford with a tough run in they will be keen to get points on the board.
I hate to take a dump on what is clearly a product of considerable thought, but if you're assuming the same PPG, you're assuming just the same form up until this point, so logically not a lot is going to change, unless teams have games in hand...

I think we're going to be fine, and it's not even going to be that close, but that's mainly as the bottom three sides are very poor. I honestly think we can take something from Chester at home also. I expected us to lose last night, but the manner of the collapse before half time is troubling.

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Quaker85
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by Quaker85 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:53 am

I don’t want to keep harping on about it but the site I posted is doing much more than projecting on a points per game basis. I believe it uses Monte Carlo simulation.

Our projected results look like a good stab to me.


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MKDarlo
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by MKDarlo » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:38 pm

I hope you are right! The good news is that we have games against sides close to us meaning we control our destiny.

The bad news is that we have a manager and team in whom I have absolutely no confidence. The manner of the defeat last night ( like at Chester) really concerns me.

JE93
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by JE93 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:55 pm

Quaker85 wrote:I don’t want to keep harping on about it but the site I posted is doing much more than projecting on a points per game basis. I believe it uses Monte Carlo simulation.

Our projected results look like a good stab to me.


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I agree it's a good site. These things always go down to interpretation, in essence its all guess work. They are using algorithms based on past results to predict future results, its a guess no matter how intelligent that guess might be.

Looking at their predictions. They have us finishing on 53 points, so 16 from our last 9 games with a run of 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat which would be our best of the season by some margin.

This personally seems too high to me, it would be almost double our current PPG ratio. I do concede we have to play some of the 'weaker' teams in that time (unfortunately we're one of those weaker teams too). But in the 7 games we have played against the teams around us we have:
2 wins (FCUM away and Ashton home),
4 draws (Leamington Away, Ashton away and Hereford home, Guiseley home),
1 loss (Nuneaton home).

Thats 10 points. Or a PPG of 1.43.

That PPG x 5 games = 7
Win v Chester = 3 (2nd worst away form in the division).
Draw v Boston = 1
Loss to BPA + Stockport = 0

11 points which would take us to 48. I'd love to see us get over 50 points this season, but i just don't see it happening.

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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by comeondarlo » Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:58 pm

It’s good but it’s not Ginge!

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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by jjljks » Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:24 pm

There is the Nuneaton factor to consider - whether they manage to fulfill all their remaining games or not. Would not wish the demise of any club, but we would gain most if that happened.

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HarrytheQuaker
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by HarrytheQuaker » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:05 am

jjljks wrote:There is the Nuneaton factor to consider - whether they manage to fulfill all their remaining games or not. Would not wish the demise of any club, but we would gain most if that happened.
Whats the Nuneaton factor like??

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JE93
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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by JE93 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:25 am

HarrytheQuaker wrote:
jjljks wrote:There is the Nuneaton factor to consider - whether they manage to fulfill all their remaining games or not. Would not wish the demise of any club, but we would gain most if that happened.
Whats the Nuneaton factor like??

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Think he means whether they will see out the season or not. They are in court to answer a Winding up petition from HMRC the Monday after our league game with them.

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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by jjljks » Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:25 am

JE93 wrote:
HarrytheQuaker wrote:
jjljks wrote:There is the Nuneaton factor to consider - whether they manage to fulfill all their remaining games or not. Would not wish the demise of any club, but we would gain most if that happened.
Whats the Nuneaton factor like??

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Think he means whether they will see out the season or not. They are in court to answer a Winding up petition from HMRC the Monday after our league game with them.
Thanks JE93, just to clarify there are a couple of possibilities depending on the result of the winding up petition. If they don't complete their fixtures then all their results are scrubbed so most teams will lose points (except us who Nuneaton beat at BM). If they do finish, everyone keeps their points & hopefully they finish bottom.

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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by spen666 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:30 am

There are so many variable this season

Coventry face a vote to kick them out of football league because they have no ground - unlikely National Leagues will accept them without a ground either

Bolton Wanderers - face potential winding up over their debts as well. not certain their game this weekend will take place owing to their not having paid various 3rd parties

Nuneaton - as said above, save I believe the results are only scrubbed if they have not completed 75% of their games. After this all remaining unplayed games are awarded to other side as 0-0 wins ie teams get 3 points but no change on goal difference. This follows from the court cases in 1990s following collapse of Spennymoor United and their failure to complete the fixtures

All of these will have knock on effects down the Pyramid if they comes to pass and would almost certainly reduce numbers of clubs relegated from NLN


Edited to add Gateshead who apparently are also facing a winding up petition next week I believe

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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by shildonlad » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:10 am

spen666 wrote:There are so many variable this season

Coventry face a vote to kick them out of football league because they have no ground - unlikely National Leagues will accept them without a ground either

Bolton Wanderers - face potential winding up over their debts as well. not certain their game this weekend will take place owing to their not having paid various 3rd parties

Nuneaton - as said above, save I believe the results are only scrubbed if they have not completed 75% of their games. After this all remaining unplayed games are awarded to other side as 0-0 wins ie teams get 3 points but no change on goal difference. This follows from the court cases in 1990s following collapse of Spennymoor United and their failure to complete the fixtures

All of these will have knock on effects down the Pyramid if they comes to pass and would almost certainly reduce numbers of clubs relegated from NLN


Edited to add Gateshead who apparently are also facing a winding up petition next week I believe
Gatesheads winding up petition has been dismissed on the agreement the money is paid as soon as possible
I may not live in the north east anymore but i still support the north east teams

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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by spen666 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:18 am

shildonlad wrote:
spen666 wrote:There are so many variable this season

Coventry face a vote to kick them out of football league because they have no ground - unlikely National Leagues will accept them without a ground either

Bolton Wanderers - face potential winding up over their debts as well. not certain their game this weekend will take place owing to their not having paid various 3rd parties

Nuneaton - as said above, save I believe the results are only scrubbed if they have not completed 75% of their games. After this all remaining unplayed games are awarded to other side as 0-0 wins ie teams get 3 points but no change on goal difference. This follows from the court cases in 1990s following collapse of Spennymoor United and their failure to complete the fixtures

All of these will have knock on effects down the Pyramid if they comes to pass and would almost certainly reduce numbers of clubs relegated from NLN


Edited to add Gateshead who apparently are also facing a winding up petition next week I believe
Gatesheads winding up petition has been dismissed on the agreement the money is paid as soon as possible

you are correct. The Chronicle are now reporting
The club were served a winding up order on Wednesday March 6 and the club released the subsequent statement: "The club have known about the winding up order and have been speaking regularly with HMRC in order to settle the debts. This equates to £20,223.61.

"We are speaking to National League in order to release funds from our £200,000 bond in order to settle these debts and ensure the order goes no further, this was discussed at last Friday's meeting."

HMRC has since informed the club that the court case regarding Gateshead FC's winding up order has been dismissed however the club still need to make payment in full as soon as possible to prevent further action from being taken.
Seems there is more to that story than meets the eye. The winding up petition has been dismissed but the debt not paid! Normally a winding up petition would be adjourned to allow time to pay the debt if not already paid.

Sounds as though the HMRC may have been premature in issuing the proceedings.

Good news for Gateshead.

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Re: Relegation Watch

Post by JE93 » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:06 pm

Table

Image

Teams

Darlington
Result: Hereford 4 - 2 Darlington
Games played: 34
Points: 37
Games left to play: (8) Chester (h), Nuneaton (a), Stockport (a), FC United (h), Boston (a), Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Guiseley (a), Leamington (h).
Form: DLDLL
Total potential points: 61
PPG: 1.09
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 46
Comment: Well with my initial post I called us a Jekyll and Hyde team. We certainly lived up to that today. 2-0 first half, finished 4-2. Shocking result from us based on the position we were in and one which drags us back into the mire. 2 points from 15 available, we host Chester next weekend who have one of the worst away records in the division. We need points on the board to give us breathing room from the chasing pack.

Leamington
Result: Chester 1 - 1 Leamington
Games played: 34
Points: 37
Games left to play: (8) Southport (h), Chorley (a), Ashton (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Alfreton (h), Kidderminster (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a).
Form: LLLLD
Total potential points: 61
PPG: 1.09
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 46
Comment: Good point for 10 man Leamington today, getting a draw against Chester who have the third best home form in the division. They remain below us only on goals scored. Dispite that, they only have 1 point from 15 available. Like us, they too will probably be sweating a little if FC United of Ashton can hit any consistent form.

Hereford
Result: Hereford 4 - 2 Darlington
Games played: 33
Points: 39
Games left to play: (9) Brackley (h), Alfreton (a), Guiseley (h), Spennymoor (a), Stockport (h), Southport (a), Telford (h), Altrincham (a), Boston (h).
Form: WDDDW
Total potential points: 66
PPG: 1.18
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 50
Comment: A good result for Hereford in a game they will have viewed as a 6 pointer. Very tough run in for Hereford, with promotion chasers Spenny, Brackley, Stockport, Telford and Altrincham to play, but they have a game in hand and they may well think that one more win will see them safe for another season at this level.

Guiseley
Result: Spennymoor P - P Guiseley
Games played: 33
Points: 33
Games left to play: (9) Curzon Ashton (h), Hereford (a), York (h), Brackley (a), Ashton (h), Blyth (a), Darlington (h), Kidderminster (a). [to be rearranged Spennymoor (a)]
Form: DDLLL
Total potential points: 60
PPG: 1
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 42
Comment: I'll steer away from talking about our dear friends and their wonderful marine habitat of a ground. Technically, as Guiseley haven't played, their circumstances haven't particularly changed, but I'm sure they will be unnerved with the sight of FC United winning and closing the gap on them.

Ashton United
Result: Ashton United 0 - 2 Bradford (Park Avenue)
Games played: 34
Points: 30
Games left to play: (8) Blyth Spartans (h), Leamington (a), Spennymoor (h), Guiseley (a), Chester (h), Boston (a), Altrincham (h) [Stockport (a) To be re-arranged].
Form: LWLLL
Total potential points: 54
PPG: 0.88
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 37
Comment: A fairly expected result today against a decent Bradford PA side which who are very much still in the playoff hunt. With games again promotion chasing Spenny, Stockport and Altrincham it's hard to see them making up the points they need. I think they will slowly start to slip away.

FC United of Manchester
Result: AFC Telford 1 - 3 FC United
Games played: 34
Points: 30
Games left to play: (8) York (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a), Kidderminster (h), Alfreton (a), Blyth (h), Brackley (a).
Form: LDDDW
Total potential points: 54
PPG: 0.88
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 37
Comment: What a result for FC United against playoff chasing Telford. They move ahead of Ashton on goal difference and are just 4 points behind Guiseley. They've been in and around the bottom 3 all season and they still have work to do if they want to stay in this league but they will feel like they have a fighting chance tonight.

Nuneaton Borough
Result: No game
Games played: 34
Points: 16
Games left to play: (8) Blyth Spartans (a), Darlington (h), FC United (a), Chester (h), Bradford (Park Avenue) (a), Altrincham (h), Leamington (a), Stockport (h).
Form: LLLLL
Total potential points: 40
PPG: 0.47
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 20
Comment: Brave fight from Nuneaton today but with 10 men the scummed to Alfreton in a 2-1 defeat, adding to their difficult week following being served with a winding up petition by HMRC earlier on.

Predicted picture at the bottom:
16) Hereford
17) Leamington
18) Darlington
19) Guiseley
--------------------------
20) FC United
21) Ashton United
22) Nuneaton

Hard to see any chance for Nuneaton, I'm starting to feel the same way about Ashton, the loss of Nick Chadwick to Altrincham might be the final straw in seeing them go down. FC United are the big movers. They have given themselves a chance, though need to show it's more than just a flash in the pan before anyone gets too excited about their survival.

Upcoming Fixtures:

12 March 2019
Hereford v Brackley Town
Spennymoor v Bradford PA

16 March 2019
Alfreton v Hereford
Altrincham v Brackley Town
Blyth v Nuneaton
Boston Utd v Chorley
Darlington v Chester
FC United v York
Guiseley v Curzon Ashton
Kidderminster v Spennymoor
Leamington v Southport

Comments:
Hereford can probably make themselves safe with 3 more points but Brackey and Alfreton (going for their 5th win in a row) will be tough tests.

FC United will want to show their result wasn't a flash in the pan but York have shown the green shoots of recovery under Steve Watson and he will be keen to have them finish the season on a high and prove who deserves a contract for next season.

As for us, we host Chester who have the second worst away record in the division. We need points badly to breed some confidence into the side. We have struggled to show the mentality for a scrap for most of the season and being dragged into a real relegation battle would do little to improve that.

Alfie
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 8:33 am
Team Supported: Darlington
Location: Eye, Suffolk

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by Alfie » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:18 pm

What worries me most about the remaining games, especially those against fellow strugglers, is that the teams in a similar position to us are basically crap, or they wouldn't be where they are
What will set the survivors apart are things like motivation and making the most of what you have got from the management, and character, determination, fight, attitude, sheer bloody mindedness from the players.

I don't see much of that within the club.

real_darlo_85
Posts: 896
Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Team Supported: Darlington
Location: Newton Aycliffe

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by real_darlo_85 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:53 am

2 wins from remaining 8 should be just enough....no guarantees mind!
"The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It is a very mean and nasty place and it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't how hard you hit; it's about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward. How much you can take, and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!"

LoidLucan
Posts: 3009
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 11:29 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by LoidLucan » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:08 am

TW has put together a fairly lightweight and fragile squad and I can very easily see us losing against Chester, drawing at Nuneaton and then losing at Stockport. In fact I can see a scenario in which we go into the final game at home to Leamington needing a victory to stay up.

quakerman
Posts: 149
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 2:54 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by quakerman » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:18 am

LoidLucan wrote:TW has put together a fairly lightweight and fragile squad and I can very easily see us losing against Chester, drawing at Nuneaton and then losing at Stockport. In fact I can see a scenario in which we go into the final game at home to Leamington needing a victory to stay up.
I really cannot in all honesty see us winning another game this season,probably draw 2 or 3 .Worrying with that FC United result yesterday, squeeky bum time and as you say this could go down to the wire.If the pressure starts to build I fear that these young kids will not be able to handle it, that is my concern.

Sent from my moto g(6) play using Tapatalk

LoidLucan
Posts: 3009
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 11:29 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by LoidLucan » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:27 am

I honestly can't see us getting anything at Guiseley and the FCUM match will be two crap sides with the winner being the one that has the most guts and desire... gulp! This is where Mr Motivator TW will have to start practising his Band Of Brothers speech.

Darlopartisan
Posts: 745
Joined: Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:49 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by Darlopartisan » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:56 am

LoidLucan wrote:I honestly can't see us getting anything at Guiseley and the FCUM match will be two crap sides with the winner being the one that has the most guts and desire... gulp! This is where Mr Motivator TW will have to start practising his Band Of Brothers speech.
If we are ahead in any game at half time, TW should be gagged and bagged to stop him giving his inspirational team talks

Beano
Posts: 1320
Joined: Tue Jul 21, 2009 11:33 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by Beano » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:10 pm

We will likely lose to all of the teams around us as they fight for their lives but pick up points from teams at the top when the pressure if off and expectations are low.

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