Relegation Watch

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Yarblockos
Posts: 587
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:19 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by Yarblockos » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:24 pm

LoidLucan wrote:TW has put together a fairly lightweight and fragile squad and I can very easily see us losing against Chester, drawing at Nuneaton and then losing at Stockport. In fact I can see a scenario in which we go into the final game at home to Leamington needing a victory to stay up.
We will beat Leamington in the last game of the season to stay up. TW will be called a hero and people will say how optimistic they are about what he can do with this squad next season.

spen666
Posts: 1411
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:12 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by spen666 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:45 am

I am reminded on another forum, that at end of January/ early February, FCUM announced that they had been thrown out of Manchester Senior Cup and had said they had been charged by National League re an ineligible player they had played in a number of games.

Has any points decuction been announced yet, or is that still to be factored in to the relegation picture?
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Twitter: @spen_666

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don'tbuythesun
Posts: 1386
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:24 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by don'tbuythesun » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:47 am

They talked of a forthcoming league hearing but there's nothing on their site other than the FA giving them a written warning.

bigdavethemaddog
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:52 am

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by bigdavethemaddog » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:55 pm

both of tonights conf north games postponed

LoidLucan
Posts: 2525
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 11:29 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by LoidLucan » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:09 pm

Looks like the new covers at Spendy just didn't do their job, again.....

Image

JE93
Posts: 1125
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:48 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by JE93 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:28 pm

Table

Image

Teams

Darlington
Result: No game
Games played: 34
Points: 37
Games left to play: (8) Nuneaton (a), Stockport (a), FC United (h), Boston (a), Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Guiseley (a), Leamington (h). [To be rearranged Chester (h)]
Form: DLDLL
Total potential points: 61
PPG: 1.09
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 46
Comment: No game for us means no real change in our circumstances. Leamington's win pushes us down another place but in all honesty its not really anyone other than FC United and Guiseley that I'm taking notice of right now.

Leamington
Result: Leamington 1 - 0 Southport
Games played: 35
Points: 40
Games left to play: (7) Chorley (a), Ashton (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Alfreton (h), Kidderminster (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a).
Form: LLLDW
Total potential points: 61
PPG: 1.14
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 48
Comment: Leamington take full advantage of being the only team at the bottom to get a game on. A hard fought 1-0 will against a physical Southport side is exactly the sort of result that shows you have the fight for a relegation scrap. 10 points clear of FC United with 7 games left. I think they will be more than safe with Ashton and Nuneaton still to play.

Hereford
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 39
Games left to play: (9) Guiseley (h), Spennymoor (a), Stockport (h), Southport (a), Telford (h), Altrincham (a), Boston (h). [To be rearranged Brackley (h), Alfreton (a)]
Form: WDDDW
Total potential points: 66
PPG: 1.18
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 50
Comment: No game means no change for Hereford. They still have the most difficult run in to the end of the season. But being 9 clear of FC United means the Manchester club will have to show some serious form before they start getting worried again.

Guiseley
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 33
Games left to play: (9) Hereford (a), York (h), Brackley (a), Ashton (h), Blyth (a), Darlington (h), Kidderminster (a). [to be rearranged Spennymoor (a), Curzon Ashton (h)]
Form: DDLLL
Total potential points: 60
PPG: 1
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 42
Comment: No game and no change like the rest of us. Though I'm sure they will have been preparing diligently for their 6 pointer against Hereford on Saturday.

Ashton United
Result: No game
Games played: 34
Points: 30
Games left to play: (8) Leamington (a), Spennymoor (h), Guiseley (a), Chester (h), Boston (a), Altrincham (h) [Blyth Spartans (h), Stockport (a) To be re-arranged].
Form: LWLLL
Total potential points: 54
PPG: 0.88
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 37
Comment: Another team with a very serious game coming up on Saturday against another team at the bottom.

FC United of Manchester
Result: No game
Games played: 34
Points: 30
Games left to play: (8) Curzon Ashton (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a), Kidderminster (h), Alfreton (a), Blyth (h), Brackley (a). [To be rearranged York (h)]
Form: LDDDW
Total potential points: 54
PPG: 0.88
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 37
Comment: If nothing else FC United truely pissed off some York fans on Saturday, not with an adverse result but by waiting till 2:15 to call their game off. But as York are a full time side they are one of few that will be too effected by a mid week trip to Manchester.

Nuneaton Borough
Result: No game
Games played: 34
Points: 16
Games left to play: (8) Darlington (h), FC United (a), Chester (h), Bradford (Park Avenue) (a), Altrincham (h), Leamington (a), Stockport (h). [To be rearranged Blyth Spartans (a)]
Form: LLLLL
Total potential points: 40
PPG: 0.47
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 20
Comment: Well at least they didn't lose. (Always trying to find a bright side).

Predicted picture at the bottom:
16) Hereford
17) Leamington
18) Darlington
19) Guiseley
--------------------------
20) FC United
21) Ashton United
22) Nuneaton

No games means no real change in the relegation picture and my opinions haven't changed. Nuneaton will go down, I think Ashton are likely to follow them. Guiseley and FC United are the big question mark. Can Guiseley score the goals to win some games to make themselves safe, or can FC United win another game to really put the pressure on them.

Upcoming Fixtures:

19th March 2019
Spennymoor v Bradford PA

23rd March 2019
Ashton Utd v Blyth
Brackley Town v Kidderminster
Chorley v Leamington
Curzon Ashton v FC United
Hereford v Guiseley
Nuneaton v Darlington
Southport v Bradford PA
Spennymoor v Alfreton
York v Boston Utd

Comments:

Tough games coming up for Ashton at home to Blyth and Leamington away to a Chorley side who seem to be refinding their stride ready for the run in at the top. No game for FC United as Stockport at in FA trophy action.

There are two huge games at the bottom. Hereford can probably make themselves completely safe with a win against Guiseley. The incentive for Guiseley is to put points on the board when FC United of Manchester aren't playing. As for ourselves, we really need to record a confidence boosting win that will release some of the tension and get the fans back onside.

JE93
Posts: 1125
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:48 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Relegation Watch

Post by JE93 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:36 pm

Table

Image

Teams

Darlington
Result: Nuneaton 1 - 2 Darlington
Games played: 35
Points: 40
Games left to play: 7, Chester (h), Stockport (a), FC United (h), Boston (a), Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Guiseley (a), Leamington (h).
Form: LDLLW
Total potential points: 61
PPG: 1.14
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 48
Comment: At this time of the season points mean far more than performances, and that's what we got today. It sounded nervy and unconvincing but with 40 points on the board, 10 more the FC United, with 7 games to play, 3 of which are against fellow strugglers. We have safety well within our grasp.

Leamington
Result: Chorley 3 - 0 Leamington
Games played: 36
Points: 40
Games left to play: (6) Ashton (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Alfreton (h), Kidderminster (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a).
Form: LLDWL
Total potential points: 58
PPG: 1.11
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: Was always going to be a tough ask for Leamington against a Chorley side which had the chance to distance themselves from Stockport in the race for the league title. Looking at their run in, it's not particularly taxing, Ashton, Nuneaton and ourselves to play. They should be safe with 40 points, more interestingly might be the 3 way battle between us, Guiseley and Hereford to see who can finish highest.

Hereford
Result: Hereford 1 - 0 Guiseley
Games played: 34
Points: 42
Games left to play: (8) Brackley (h), Spennymoor (a), Stockport (h), Alfreton (a), Southport (a), Telford (h), Altrincham (a), Boston (h).
Form: DDDWW
Total potential points: 66
PPG: 1.24
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 52
Comment: Another good result for Hereford. Any team down at the bottom would love to have their form at the business end of the season and it puts them ahead in the 'battle royal' for 16th place. With the toughest run in they will be glad of points on the board, but being 12 points ahead of FC United I'd be very surprised if they weren't safe.

Guiseley
Result: Hereford 1 - 0 Guiseley
Games played: 34
Points: 33
Games left to play: (8) Curzon Ashton (h), York (h), Spennymoor (a), Brackley (a), Ashton (h), Blyth (a), Darlington (h), Kidderminster (a).
Form: DDLLL
Total potential points: 57
PPG: 0.97
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 42
Comment: It can't be good for your nerves being a Guiseley fan. When FC United scored on 11 minutes they were level on points Albeit Guiseley have a far better goal difference. The problem reamains for them, are they going to be able to score the goals which will keep them in this league. You get the feeling draws might not be enough at this time of the season.

Ashton United
Result: Ashton 0 - 3 Blyth
Games played: 35
Points: 30
Games left to play: (7) Stockport (a), Leamington (a), Spennymoor (h), Guiseley (a), Chester (h), Boston (a), Altrincham (h).
Form: WLLLL
Total potential points: 51
PPG: 0.86
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 36
Comment: Ashton moved a step closer to relegation with a routine victory for Blyth. It does nothing to help their goal difference of -40. I just don't see a way for the to stay in this league based on the way they concede goals.

FC United of Manchester
Result: Curzon Ashton 3 - 1 FC United
Games played: 35
Points: 30
Games left to play: (7) York (h), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a), Kidderminster (h), Alfreton (a), Blyth (h), Brackley (a).
Form: DDDWL
Total potential points: 51
PPG: 0.86
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 36
Comment: FC United seem like the team who could pull off a great escape if one is to happen. That cause would be helped should they keep 11 men on the pitch, the red card yesterday was their 5th of the season. But it's a huge couple of weeks coming up for them. Games against York, Nuneaton and us are all winnable, but it's hard to see how many more points they will get after that.

Nuneaton Borough
Result: Nuneaton 1 - 2 Darlington
Games played: 35
Points: 16
Games left to play: (7) FC United (a), Chester (h), Blyth Spartans (a), Bradford (Park Avenue) (a), Altrincham (h), Leamington (a), Stockport (h).
Form: LLLLL
Total potential points: 37
PPG: 0.46
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 19
Comment: Another step closer to confirming relegation for Nuneaton. Total potential points are now just 37, which means the only team they can mathematically catch are Guiseley. Should Guiseley beat York next weekend and Nuneaton lose that will be curtains for them. After much searching, it looks like they will avoid any records for lowest points as Hinckley only got 13 in 2012/13. Positive news for them about potential investors which will see the club able to continue which I'm sure will matter most to their fans.

Predicted picture at the bottom:
16) Darlington
17) Hereford
18) Leamington
19) Guiseley
--------------------------
20) FC United
21) Ashton United
22) Nuneaton

My totally gut instinct predictor says that we will win two more, couple of draws to get to around 48 points and see us finish on the top of the bottom. With their run in it's hard to see Hereford winning many more games, maybe a win and a few draws to finish on 46. Leamington similar a couple of wins or maybe and win and a few draws for around 46 points.

Really hard to call between Guiseley and FC United neither of their run ins make it obvious where they will pick up points. I think Guiseley will just about do it. 4 or 5 points from their final games may make their lead over FC United unassailable

Upcoming Fixtures:

Tuesday 26th March
Bradford PA v AFC Telford
FC United v York
Hereford v Brackley Town
Stockport v Ashton Utd

Wednesday 27th March
Darlington v Chester

Saturday 30th March
AFC Telford v Blyth
Altrincham v Kidderminster
Boston Utd v Curzon Ashton
Bradford PA v Alfreton
Chester v Chorley
FC United v Nuneaton
Guiseley v York
Leamington v Ashton Utd
Southport v Brackley Town
Spennymoor v Hereford
Stockport v Darlington

Comments:

Tough games for Hereford and Ashton. FC United have the chance to turn up the pressure on Guiseley with a win against York. Our mid-week game might be more winnable that it looks, as Chester have one of the worse away records in the division. Win there and we give ourselves a good chance to finish on top of the bottom (and who said we have nothing to play for).

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