Mid-season review

Open now for discussion of all things Darlo!

Moderators: botrash, mikkyx, charlie, uncovered

Post Reply
JE93
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:48 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Mid-season review

Post by JE93 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:57 pm

Well the new year always seems a good time to have a look at where we are and what can be achieved in the second half of the season. There is a limit to 3 URL's per post, so apologies this is over 3 to fit the relevant pictures in.

League table:
Image

League-wise we are about where I expected us to be, probably slightly better if anything. A mixed bag of results as we changed and adapted with an almost entirely new squad has left us pretty much bang in the middle. The poor start to the season for Blyth and BPA has meant the relegation places are a distant noise, and our form over Christmas has left us looking up to the coat tails of the playoffs which are only 4 points away. I don't expect that top 5 to change much but certainly the 6th and 7th spots are all to play for between Us, Southport, Boston, Altrincham, Gateshead, Guiseley, Farsley etc. Hopefully this means we go into the final few weeks of the season with something to play for which should help crowds to hold above target.

Away from the league, finally we have had something to shout about in the cups, the results in the FA cup especially were fantastic, some tough away days and banana skins to get to the first round. Then that unforgettable 90+6 minute equaliser from Joe Wheatley. One of those 'I was there when...' moment for lots of Darlo fans. In the trophy as well, overcame a determined Gainsborough side to get through to the first round and held very good and full-time Solihull side to a draw away from home. Think we can safely say the cup objectives have been achieved this season, whatever the result in the replay next week.

Our Results
Image

The definition of a mixed bag. Think people have called it right before, Armstrong's teams tend to be a bit streaky and that seems to carry through in our results. While there have been some great results, beating Spenny at home, York away and victories at home again other potential playoff contenders like Southport, Boston and Chester. There have been the lows. Brackley away wasn't pretty, neither was the 2-3 at home to Telford or the 3-0 away to Leamington.

Obviously what it doesn't show are our cup results which add to the streak which we had in October and into November and have added to a positive season.

I think the overall feeling has to be though that the football has improved immeasurably from what Wright provided us. We seem to have fairly clear game plans these days and a group of players who are willing to work hard for each other to get the job done. There have been a few duff results but you can put up with these across a season when you can see things are moving in the right direction, which I feel like is the case with us.

Unfortunately, limited data at this level compared to some of the unbelievable stuff you can generate in the Prem and Football League, means I can't go full stats geek, but these will have to do.

Home birds
Image

After a fairly woeful season at home last year we did say it was key to start getting results in front of our core following and AA has certainly done that. 7th in the Home League table albeit Boston are a few games behind. Home form has been key to our league position and with many of our fellow playoff chaser still to come to Blackwell we should have some confidence that we can compete with the best in the league.

Looking at the rest of the table, Kings Lynn certainly showing their fans a good time, no defeats at home this season. Maybe not so surprising when you consider what a journey it is for most teams to get to that corner of Norfolk, but full credit to them, good side and using their home patch well.

JE93
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:48 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by JE93 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:58 pm

Away day blues
Image

Unfortunately, we have to play away too, where we're only 16th in the Away League Table. Which is where much of the story of this season lies. We've been beaten soundly away from home on too many occasions this season. The defeats to Curzon, Leamington and Brackley stick particularly in the mind. The away from will probably be the make or break factory.

Interestingly its York who like to turn up and spoil peoples day the most (barring the travelling York fans of course). Won't make pretty reading for Bradford PA fans being bottom of both tables, although don't think there has been much pretty about most of their season. Barring beating us 1-0 away of course.

Points accumulation
Image

Disclaimer (the table focuses on the accumulation of points, it doesn't focus on goal difference and so teams on the same amount of points can converge into a single line and wont show their independent league position).

Main take always have to be how steep the lines for York and Kings Lynn are. They certainly seem to be in a class of their own at the head of the field and I don't really expect anyone else to be able to catch them. Outside of the Brackley and Spennymoor are making big movements after slow starts to get in and amongst the playoff pack. For us, a couple of large steps again show just how streaky we can be accumulating 10 or 12 points in the space of a few weeks then flattening off awaiting the next run.

Form table
Image

Nice to finish the year as one of the in-form sides in the league. By my reckoning only Kings Lynn and Brackley took more points in their last 5 games before the new year. As i said above this has carried us to the coat tails of the playoffs and in a league where anyone can beat anyone little winning streaks like that can suddenly propel you into contention. Lets hope we start another winning run v Gloucester at the weekend.

JE93
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:48 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by JE93 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:58 pm

Next Match
Gone full Geek here so feel free to swtich off. From the results of the season so far I built a Poisson distribution which uses past results and scores to predict future results. (Before the intellectuals chime in on how the method ignores loads of extraneous variables ... I know, I know but such is life). It did however predict the 3 most likely scores for Spenny away as 3-1, 3-0 or 2-1 wins for the home side :thumbdown: .

Darlington v Gloucester
Image

Positive part is that it gives us a 68% chance of a home victory. with the most likely score lines being a 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 win. Lets hope its right again this time.

Overall Grade: B+
Best signing: Will Hatfield - honourable mentions to Michael Liddle and Alex Storey. But Hatfield has been at it every single game this season. Love watching him play football.
Best Performance: Darlo 2 - 1 Spennymoor - tough choice could have gone for inflicting York's first home league defeat of the season but this just about edges it for me. The reaction to Thommo's 100th goal was great.
Worst Performance: Brackley 5 - 1 Darlo - I was there, the less said about it the better.
Best goal: Campbell vs York, wont hit many better than that. Mentions for O'Neill v Leamington and Thompson v Blyth.

FozzQuaker
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:25 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by FozzQuaker » Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:06 pm

@JE93 I'm a bit of a nerdy statto, I would love to be to knock something like that last table together...

I just use very basic excel formulas

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk


Darlo_Pete
Posts: 12397
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:13 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by Darlo_Pete » Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:27 pm

Mighty impressive JE, you'll be outdoing Ginge. There's an awful lot of info to take in.

Beano
Posts: 1337
Joined: Tue Jul 21, 2009 11:33 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by Beano » Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:56 pm

An excellent post, thank you!

It also shows that if we'd taken 6 points from the run a draw and three losses at the end of Nov/start of Dec, with particularly reference to Telford, then we'd be right in the mix for 3rd/4th place.

Ginge01
Posts: 876
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:19 pm
Team Supported: Darlington
Location: United States

Re: Mid-season review

Post by Ginge01 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:29 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:27 pm
Mighty impressive JE, you'll be outdoing Ginge. There's an awful lot of info to take in.
I’m happy JE is outdoing me.

Ginge01
Posts: 876
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:19 pm
Team Supported: Darlington
Location: United States

Re: Mid-season review

Post by Ginge01 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:40 pm

JE93 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:57 pm
Well the new year always seems a good time to have a look at where we are and what can be achieved in the second half of the season. There is a limit to 3 URL's per post, so apologies this is over 3 to fit the relevant pictures in.

League table:
Image

League-wise we are about where I expected us to be, probably slightly better if anything. A mixed bag of results as we changed and adapted with an almost entirely new squad has left us pretty much bang in the middle. The poor start to the season for Blyth and BPA has meant the relegation places are a distant noise, and our form over Christmas has left us looking up to the coat tails of the playoffs which are only 4 points away. I don't expect that top 5 to change much but certainly the 6th and 7th spots are all to play for between Us, Southport, Boston, Altrincham, Gateshead, Guiseley, Farsley etc. Hopefully this means we go into the final few weeks of the season with something to play for which should help crowds to hold above target.

Away from the league, finally we have had something to shout about in the cups, the results in the FA cup especially were fantastic, some tough away days and banana skins to get to the first round. Then that unforgettable 90+6 minute equaliser from Joe Wheatley. One of those 'I was there when...' moment for lots of Darlo fans. In the trophy as well, overcame a determined Gainsborough side to get through to the first round and held very good and full-time Solihull side to a draw away from home. Think we can safely say the cup objectives have been achieved this season, whatever the result in the replay next week.

Our Results
Image

The definition of a mixed bag. Think people have called it right before, Armstrong's teams tend to be a bit streaky and that seems to carry through in our results. While there have been some great results, beating Spenny at home, York away and victories at home again other potential playoff contenders like Southport, Boston and Chester. There have been the lows. Brackley away wasn't pretty, neither was the 2-3 at home to Telford or the 3-0 away to Leamington.

Obviously what it doesn't show are our cup results which add to the streak which we had in October and into November and have added to a positive season.

I think the overall feeling has to be though that the football has improved immeasurably from what Wright provided us. We seem to have fairly clear game plans these days and a group of players who are willing to work hard for each other to get the job done. There have been a few duff results but you can put up with these across a season when you can see things are moving in the right direction, which I feel like is the case with us.

Unfortunately, limited data at this level compared to some of the unbelievable stuff you can generate in the Prem and Football League, means I can't go full stats geek, but these will have to do.

Home birds
Image

After a fairly woeful season at home last year we did say it was key to start getting results in front of our core following and AA has certainly done that. 7th in the Home League table albeit Boston are a few games behind. Home form has been key to our league position and with many of our fellow playoff chaser still to come to Blackwell we should have some confidence that we can compete with the best in the league.

Looking at the rest of the table, Kings Lynn certainly showing their fans a good time, no defeats at home this season. Maybe not so surprising when you consider what a journey it is for most teams to get to that corner of Norfolk, but full credit to them, good side and using their home patch well.
Great work JE, thankfully we are rising in the Away Day Blues table, before the York away game, we would have been 21st so that is progress. Telford are well placed in the Away Day Blues but victims of their home record, 18th in the Home birds table. Let’s hope we keep rising, we had 14 points from our first 12 fixtures, 19 points from the last 11 with impressive wins over three top 10 opponents, we are trending the right way but need more consistency and less negative losing streaks. As was the case under Martin Gray, early season struggles as the team found their cohesiveness, a better second half to the season. I am hoping Darlington recent history repeats itself again. Once again, great work.

JE93
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:48 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by JE93 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:04 pm

FozzQuaker wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:06 pm
@JE93 I'm a bit of a nerdy statto, I would love to be to knock something like that last table together...

I just use very basic excel formulas

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Happy to share the excel book with you if you wanted to see the logic behind the probability formula. All the tables update as the new data is entered now, just need to update the fixtures tab with the results when they come in.
Ginge01 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:29 pm
[quote=Darlo_Pete post_id=457178 time=<a href="tel:1577982430">1577982430</a> user_id=83]
Mighty impressive JE, you'll be outdoing Ginge. There's an awful lot of info to take in.
I’m happy JE is outdoing me.
[/quote]

Love reading your write ups ginge. Fair greater stamina than I. Just got round to updating the excel sheet with Decembers results.

Ginge01
Posts: 876
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:19 pm
Team Supported: Darlington
Location: United States

Re: Mid-season review

Post by Ginge01 » Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:21 pm

JE93 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:04 pm
FozzQuaker wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:06 pm
@JE93 I'm a bit of a nerdy statto, I would love to be to knock something like that last table together...

I just use very basic excel formulas

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Happy to share the excel book with you if you wanted to see the logic behind the probability formula. All the tables update as the new data is entered now, just need to update the fixtures tab with the results when they come in.
Ginge01 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:29 pm
[quote=Darlo_Pete post_id=457178 time=<a href="tel:1577982430">1577982430</a> user_id=83]
Mighty impressive JE, you'll be outdoing Ginge. There's an awful lot of info to take in.
I’m happy JE is outdoing me.
Love reading your write ups ginge. Fair greater stamina than I. Just got round to updating the excel sheet with Decembers results.
[/quote]

LoL, we definitely love this club with the work we put in, I feel I’ve got a pressure deadline, 11:00 pm Los Angles time, 7:00 am the next day (typically Sunday) Darlington time, I got feedback from someone at the club who likes to read my write ups with morning coffee so I’ve got to keep the readers on this site happy with their morning cuppa.

FozzQuaker
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:25 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by FozzQuaker » Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:35 pm


JE93 wrote:
FozzQuaker wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:06 pm
@JE93 I'm a bit of a nerdy statto, I would love to be to knock something like that last table together...

I just use very basic excel formulas

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Happy to share the excel book with you if you wanted to see the logic behind the probability formula. All the tables update as the new data is entered now, just need to update the fixtures tab with the results when they come in.
Ginge01 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:29 pm
[quote=Darlo_Pete post_id=457178 time=<a href="tel:1577982430">1577982430</a> user_id=83]
Mighty impressive JE, you'll be outdoing Ginge. There's an awful lot of info to take in.
I’m happy JE is outdoing me.
Love reading your write ups ginge. Fair greater stamina than I. Just got round to updating the excel sheet with Decembers results.[/quote]

Would appreciate that mate...

I will PM you

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk


User avatar
Quaker85
Posts: 381
Joined: Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:38 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by Quaker85 » Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:41 pm

Have you done any back testing to bookies odds JE93?

Great thread btw


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

JE93
Posts: 1285
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:48 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by JE93 » Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:06 pm

Quaker85 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:41 pm
Have you done any back testing to bookies odds JE93?

Great thread btw Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Cheers mate, hadn't really thought about matching to bookies odds tbh but using last two games, just because i can see what the 3 predicted results were. Results are below.

for Spennymoor it showed 3 most likely results as:
3-1 - Home win - odds 53/4
3-0 - Home win - odds 1643/100
2-1 - Home win - odds 749/100
£1 on all results. £3 cost, winnings £13.25 + £1 stake. Net £11.25.

For Gloucester it showed 3 most likely results as:
1-0 - Home win - odds 32/5
2-0 - Home win - odds 163/25
2-1 - Home win - odds 351/50
£1 on all 3 results. £3 cost, winnings £7.02+£1 stake. Net £5.02.

odds as of: oddsportal not sure how accurate that is as a site.

User avatar
Quaker85
Posts: 381
Joined: Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:38 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: Mid-season review

Post by Quaker85 » Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:39 pm

You’ve given me an idea for a research project. One thing stands out from your odds is that 2-1 wasn’t a value bet going by your percentages but a Darlo win was as you could get 1.55 online.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Post Reply