Our run in......

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theoriginalfatcat
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Our run in......

Post by theoriginalfatcat » Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pm

Definitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...

Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)

17 points.
Last edited by theoriginalfatcat on Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
Mr Singh said this " I'm not expecting to get back any of the money I've already put in, I'm prepared to write it off for the future of the club. I'm not hanging in to make any kind of financial gain in the short or long term - if someone was prepared to come in and take the club off my hands, I'd be more than willing to discuss it"

Tamworth matchday programme 26 Nov 2011

jjljks
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Re: Our final ten games...

Post by jjljks » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:13 am

Not commenting on your predictions, but the title of the thread sounds a bit drastic. Still in with an outside chance of the playoffs so there could be 11 / 12 /13 more games. Any chance of renaming the thread?
Mind, given Corona virus, you could be spot on :silent:

Wiseacre
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Re: Our run in......

Post by Wiseacre » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:16 am

Bet you we win at Boston.

banktopp
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Re: Our run in......

Post by banktopp » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:25 am

theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pm
Definitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...

Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)

17 points.
If only we could get O'Neill back on loan, then there is every chance we will make the play-offs.
Wonderful display at Telford, at times the quick, short passing interplay was reminiscent of Hodgy's triangles in the 1996-7 season.
How anyone can still question Adam Cambell's contribution is beyond me. A 20 goal a season striker, we just need more goals from the others. It could all go down to last game of season against King's Lynn.
For me I'd give us 21 points in those last 10 games.

jjljks
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Re: Our run in......

Post by jjljks » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:40 am

Thanks for renaming the thread👍🙌
Got to stay positive with everyone injury free & no more red (or yellow) cards so AA has a full squad for selection. Getting O'Neill back would be the icing on the cake.🙏

Darlo_Pete
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Re: Our run in......

Post by Darlo_Pete » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:22 am

If we can play like we did on Saturday, we could win many of the remaining games in this season.

Darlo2807
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Re: Our run in......

Post by Darlo2807 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:16 pm

Surely we should fancy our chances against Kettering. I have that down as a win. Don’t think we’ll take anything from Gateshead though, happy to be proven wrong of course.

H1987
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Re: Our run in......

Post by H1987 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:30 pm

theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pm
Definitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...

Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)

17 points.
What I think we need for the playoffs:
Farsley - Win
Boston - Lose
Gateshead - Win
Leamington - Win
Curzon - Win
Kettering - Win
Bradford - Win
Altrincham - Draw
Southport - Draw
KL - Lose

21 pts

What I suspect may happen:
Farsley - win
Boston - lose
Gateshead - lose
Leamington - Win
Curzon - Win
Kettering - Win
Bradford - Win
Altrincham - Lose
Southport - Draw
KL - Lose

16pts

65 pts made the playoffs last year, by the way. Bradford with 65 just made it, Telford with 65 missed out on goal difference. Chester finished 9th on 62.

21 pts would give us 69 points, 16 would give us 64.... One most likely enough, one probably not enough. It's roughly in our hands, but I think it's crucial that we beat Farsley and we don't lose to Gateshead. Season defining.

biccynana
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Re: Our run in......

Post by biccynana » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:37 pm

H1987 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:30 pm
theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pm
Definitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...

Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)

17 points.
What I think we need for the playoffs:
Farsley - Win
Boston - Lose
Gateshead - Win
Leamington - Win
Curzon - Win
Kettering - Win
Bradford - Win
Altrincham - Draw
Southport - Draw
KL - Lose

21 pts

That's only 20 pts, H.

H1987
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Re: Our run in......

Post by H1987 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:22 pm

biccynana wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:37 pm
H1987 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:30 pm
theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pm
Definitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...

Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)

17 points.
What I think we need for the playoffs:
Farsley - Win
Boston - Lose
Gateshead - Win
Leamington - Win
Curzon - Win
Kettering - Win
Bradford - Win
Altrincham - Draw
Southport - Draw
KL - Lose

21 pts

That's only 20 pts, H.
:silent: I've never been much of a mathematician...

20 points would probably get us a spot. I think it does show the size of our task though. We do have some seriously winnable games in there, but I think the big ones are beating Farsley so we stay in touching distance of Gateshead, then ideally going there to beat them. Of course it's not necessarily the case that we need to finish above Gateshead to get in, we could both make it, but I think if we lose we probably have too much to do unless Spendy go on a losing streak / we pick up some unexpected points at Boston.

jjljks
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Re: Our run in......

Post by jjljks » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:48 pm

Farsley managed to lose 1-2 to Gloucester with almost last kick of game, despite a Dave Syers goal. They must be gutted not to gain anything from their game in hand, but then again could be a danger on rebound when we play them. Hope Syers doesn't bring his scoring boots back to BM. Is Cartman still playing for them? Got to take 3 points off Farsley next Saturday.

super_les_mcjannet
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Re: Our run in......

Post by super_les_mcjannet » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:54 pm

Cartman also started tonight and was substituted at 1-0 up for Spencer who played really well in our game at Farsley at the start of the season.

Mister e
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Re: Our run in......

Post by Mister e » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:16 pm

super_les_mcjannet wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:54 pm
Cartman also started tonight and was substituted at 1-0 up for Spencer who played really well in our game at Farsley at the start of the season.
Farsley are in free fall there was also a comment on the Blyth Spartans site recently that they could be in danger of relegation as their ground doesn't come up to national League north standards.

JE93
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Re: Our run in......

Post by JE93 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:33 pm

Mister e wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:16 pm
super_les_mcjannet wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:54 pm
Cartman also started tonight and was substituted at 1-0 up for Spencer who played really well in our game at Farsley at the start of the season.
Farsley are in free fall there was also a comment on the Blyth Spartans site recently that they could be in danger of relegation as their ground doesn't come up to national League north standards.
Nothing wrong with Farsley's ground for staying in the league from a ground grading perspective. Don't know if they have the 500+ seats to play in the playoffs but from a capacity and entry / exit etc point of view its all okay.

Only ground I can think of that has question marks over it, re staying in the league, is Kettering Not sure if they have the overall capacity. I think their fans were fund raising for it but not sure what the outcome was.

jjljks
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Re: Our run in......

Post by jjljks » Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:05 am

Thanks SuperLes, Mister-E & JE93. Plenty of info to think about there. Roll on Saturday✊

al_quaker
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Re: Our run in......

Post by al_quaker » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:36 am

Mister e wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:16 pm
super_les_mcjannet wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:54 pm
Cartman also started tonight and was substituted at 1-0 up for Spencer who played really well in our game at Farsley at the start of the season.
Farsley are in free fall there was also a comment on the Blyth Spartans site recently that they could be in danger of relegation as their ground doesn't come up to national League north standards.
Free fall seems little harsh when they've picked up more points than us in the last 6 games :lol: Although admittedly their longer term form is pretty poor - looks like a regression to the mean after over achieving at the start of the season.

Saturday is looking a bit of a must win if we want to keep in realistic touching distance of the playoffs considering our following 2 away games. Avoid defeat at Gateshead and see if we can sneak a point at Boston would be a decent return. If we can come away with 5 points out of these next three games then we will be in a decent spot I think with a stretch of winnable games coming up after. Nice to be looking up after the last couple of seasons :lol:

H1987
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Re: Our run in......

Post by H1987 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:21 pm

I think this is what makes Saturday so big. I'd love to see us just finish the season with something to play for. Even if we don't make it, just taking it to the wire would be nice.

I think that's unlikely if we don't get the win on Saturday, as I think the gap becomes too great, practically but also psychologically.

bigdavethemaddog
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Re: Our run in......

Post by bigdavethemaddog » Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:54 pm

i can see us beating Farsley and Gateshead then losing to Leamington, Curzon and BPA

JE93
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Re: Our run in......

Post by JE93 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:22 pm

My predictor currently says you'll need 67 points for a playoff place. But tbh for us that means 68 as our goal difference is so poor.

The current prediction is that Gateshead will climb to 6th with 68 points, Chester will finish 7th with 67 points. We'll come 10th with Spenny, and Guiseley ahead of us on goal difference. Although we'll all finish on 66 points.

For results it reckons:
Farsley (H) - Win
Boston (A) - Lose
Gateshead (A) - Lose
Leamington (H) - Win
Curzon (H) - Win
Kettering (A) - Draw
Bradford (A) - Win
Altrincham (H) - Win
Southport (A) - Draw 
Kings Lynn (H) - Draw

18 points for a total of 66.

It wouldn't be a bad end to the season. But if we really want to challenge for a playoff spot we'll need to get closer to 70 points. Turn one of the away results at Boston or Gateshead into a draw and the Kettering result into a win it gives us 69 and I think that would give us a real chance of getting into those playoffs.

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theoriginalfatcat
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Re: Our run in......

Post by theoriginalfatcat » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:53 pm

JE93 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:22 pm
My predictor currently says you'll need 67 points for a playoff place. But tbh for us that means 68 as our goal difference is so poor.

The current prediction is that Gateshead will climb to 6th with 68 points, Chester will finish 7th with 67 points. We'll come 10th with Spenny, and Guiseley ahead of us on goal difference. Although we'll all finish on 66 points.

For results it reckons:
Farsley (H) - Win
Boston (A) - Lose
Gateshead (A) - Lose
Leamington (H) - Win
Curzon (H) - Win
Kettering (A) - Draw
Bradford (A) - Win
Altrincham (H) - Win
Southport (A) - Draw 
Kings Lynn (H) - Draw

18 points for a total of 66.

It wouldn't be a bad end to the season. But if we really want to challenge for a playoff spot we'll need to get closer to 70 points. Turn one of the away results at Boston or Gateshead into a draw and the Kettering result into a win it gives us 69 and I think that would give us a real chance of getting into those playoffs.
Your predictor seems a bit predictable :D usually in a spell of ten games you get a result or two which are either a surprise win or a surprise loss.
Mr Singh said this " I'm not expecting to get back any of the money I've already put in, I'm prepared to write it off for the future of the club. I'm not hanging in to make any kind of financial gain in the short or long term - if someone was prepared to come in and take the club off my hands, I'd be more than willing to discuss it"

Tamworth matchday programme 26 Nov 2011

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Quaker85
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Re: Our run in......

Post by Quaker85 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:57 pm

theoriginalfatcat wrote:
JE93 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:22 pm
My predictor currently says you'll need 67 points for a playoff place. But tbh for us that means 68 as our goal difference is so poor.

The current prediction is that Gateshead will climb to 6th with 68 points, Chester will finish 7th with 67 points. We'll come 10th with Spenny, and Guiseley ahead of us on goal difference. Although we'll all finish on 66 points.

For results it reckons:
Farsley (H) - Win
Boston (A) - Lose
Gateshead (A) - Lose
Leamington (H) - Win
Curzon (H) - Win
Kettering (A) - Draw
Bradford (A) - Win
Altrincham (H) - Win
Southport (A) - Draw 
Kings Lynn (H) - Draw

18 points for a total of 66.

It wouldn't be a bad end to the season. But if we really want to challenge for a playoff spot we'll need to get closer to 70 points. Turn one of the away results at Boston or Gateshead into a draw and the Kettering result into a win it gives us 69 and I think that would give us a real chance of getting into those playoffs.
Your predictor seems a bit predictable :D usually in a spell of ten games you get a result or two which are either a surprise win or a surprise loss.
How do you predict those Image

Most models will go the statistically most likely outcome


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theoriginalfatcat
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Re: Our run in......

Post by theoriginalfatcat » Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:18 am

Our run in, I was so much looking forward to it!

It would have been the last game of the season this Saturday coming and a quick scan through on this thread shows that H1987 was the closest with his points estimate of 16 - obvs the total points tally is looking to be zero unless a miracle happens.

Technically the season is still ongoing but does anyone now believe that we will see any football before August?
Mr Singh said this " I'm not expecting to get back any of the money I've already put in, I'm prepared to write it off for the future of the club. I'm not hanging in to make any kind of financial gain in the short or long term - if someone was prepared to come in and take the club off my hands, I'd be more than willing to discuss it"

Tamworth matchday programme 26 Nov 2011

spen666
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Re: Our run in......

Post by spen666 » Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:41 am

theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:18 am
...

Technically the season is still ongoing but does anyone now believe that we will see any football before August?

I'm starting to question whether we will see in person any football then either.

I hope I am being unduly pessimistic and football is back up and running by then

joejaques
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Re: Our run in......

Post by joejaques » Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:44 am

spen666 wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:41 am
theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:18 am
...

Technically the season is still ongoing but does anyone now believe that we will see any football before August?

I'm starting to question whether we will see in person any football then either.

I hope I am being unduly pessimistic and football is back up and running by then
Definitely be football by August, it's just which year that is in question. :roll:
Image

Mister e
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Re: Our run in......

Post by Mister e » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:01 pm

When I mooted regionalised football and splitting leagues in an earlier thread several posters on here said absolutely no chance. Therefore it's interesting to see now that this very system is now being considered all the way up to the football league championship where they are considered to be wanting to finish this season in August and then temporarily split the league in two to cut costs and apparently protect the integrity of the caraboa cup. I just hope that a vaccine is found sooner rather than later. Not only is this bloody virus having an effect on football it is also crushing people's livelihoods and finances including my own I wish I could do a lot more to help the club at the moment. However I sadly can't see a return to normality any time soon I sincerely hope and pray that I am proved wrong.

Vodka_Vic
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Re: Our run in......

Post by Vodka_Vic » Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:18 pm

They had the chance to regionalise football but the chairmen of L2 and NL clubs voted against it.

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