Our run in......
- theoriginalfatcat
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Our run in......
Definitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...
Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)
17 points.
Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)
17 points.
Last edited by theoriginalfatcat on Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Our final ten games...
Not commenting on your predictions, but the title of the thread sounds a bit drastic. Still in with an outside chance of the playoffs so there could be 11 / 12 /13 more games. Any chance of renaming the thread?
Mind, given Corona virus, you could be spot on
Mind, given Corona virus, you could be spot on
Re: Our run in......
Bet you we win at Boston.
Re: Our run in......
If only we could get O'Neill back on loan, then there is every chance we will make the play-offs.theoriginalfatcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pmDefinitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...
Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)
17 points.
Wonderful display at Telford, at times the quick, short passing interplay was reminiscent of Hodgy's triangles in the 1996-7 season.
How anyone can still question Adam Cambell's contribution is beyond me. A 20 goal a season striker, we just need more goals from the others. It could all go down to last game of season against King's Lynn.
For me I'd give us 21 points in those last 10 games.
Re: Our run in......
Thanks for renaming the thread
Got to stay positive with everyone injury free & no more red (or yellow) cards so AA has a full squad for selection. Getting O'Neill back would be the icing on the cake.
Got to stay positive with everyone injury free & no more red (or yellow) cards so AA has a full squad for selection. Getting O'Neill back would be the icing on the cake.
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Re: Our run in......
If we can play like we did on Saturday, we could win many of the remaining games in this season.
Re: Our run in......
Surely we should fancy our chances against Kettering. I have that down as a win. Don’t think we’ll take anything from Gateshead though, happy to be proven wrong of course.
Re: Our run in......
What I think we need for the playoffs:theoriginalfatcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pmDefinitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...
Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)
17 points.
Farsley - Win
Boston - Lose
Gateshead - Win
Leamington - Win
Curzon - Win
Kettering - Win
Bradford - Win
Altrincham - Draw
Southport - Draw
KL - Lose
21 pts
What I suspect may happen:
Farsley - win
Boston - lose
Gateshead - lose
Leamington - Win
Curzon - Win
Kettering - Win
Bradford - Win
Altrincham - Lose
Southport - Draw
KL - Lose
16pts
65 pts made the playoffs last year, by the way. Bradford with 65 just made it, Telford with 65 missed out on goal difference. Chester finished 9th on 62.
21 pts would give us 69 points, 16 would give us 64.... One most likely enough, one probably not enough. It's roughly in our hands, but I think it's crucial that we beat Farsley and we don't lose to Gateshead. Season defining.
Re: Our run in......
That's only 20 pts, H.H1987 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:30 pmWhat I think we need for the playoffs:theoriginalfatcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pmDefinitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...
Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)
17 points.
Farsley - Win
Boston - Lose
Gateshead - Win
Leamington - Win
Curzon - Win
Kettering - Win
Bradford - Win
Altrincham - Draw
Southport - Draw
KL - Lose
21 pts
Re: Our run in......
I've never been much of a mathematician...biccynana wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:37 pmThat's only 20 pts, H.H1987 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:30 pmWhat I think we need for the playoffs:theoriginalfatcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:59 pmDefinitely no better than anyone else's - here are my predictions for the last ten games of this season, for what they're worth...
Home V Farsley. Win
Boston Away. Lose
Gateshead Away. Draw (2/2 in fact)
Home V L'ton. Win
Home V Curzon. Lose (Usually one disappointing home loss and this could be it)
Kettering Away. Draw.
Bradford Away. Win. (This was a bad home performance, I hope for better but it still won't be a roll over job)
Home V Altrincham. Win. (We can beat the better teams at home, as we've proven)
Southport Away. Win (complete guess! I'm hoping that we have more to play for)
Home V Kings Lynn. Lose. ( What we don't know here is who is playing for what. It could be mega important for both teams or neither, but if they need to beat us I think they will)
17 points.
Farsley - Win
Boston - Lose
Gateshead - Win
Leamington - Win
Curzon - Win
Kettering - Win
Bradford - Win
Altrincham - Draw
Southport - Draw
KL - Lose
21 pts
20 points would probably get us a spot. I think it does show the size of our task though. We do have some seriously winnable games in there, but I think the big ones are beating Farsley so we stay in touching distance of Gateshead, then ideally going there to beat them. Of course it's not necessarily the case that we need to finish above Gateshead to get in, we could both make it, but I think if we lose we probably have too much to do unless Spendy go on a losing streak / we pick up some unexpected points at Boston.
Re: Our run in......
Farsley managed to lose 1-2 to Gloucester with almost last kick of game, despite a Dave Syers goal. They must be gutted not to gain anything from their game in hand, but then again could be a danger on rebound when we play them. Hope Syers doesn't bring his scoring boots back to BM. Is Cartman still playing for them? Got to take 3 points off Farsley next Saturday.
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Re: Our run in......
Cartman also started tonight and was substituted at 1-0 up for Spencer who played really well in our game at Farsley at the start of the season.
Re: Our run in......
Farsley are in free fall there was also a comment on the Blyth Spartans site recently that they could be in danger of relegation as their ground doesn't come up to national League north standards.super_les_mcjannet wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:54 pmCartman also started tonight and was substituted at 1-0 up for Spencer who played really well in our game at Farsley at the start of the season.
Re: Our run in......
Nothing wrong with Farsley's ground for staying in the league from a ground grading perspective. Don't know if they have the 500+ seats to play in the playoffs but from a capacity and entry / exit etc point of view its all okay.Mister e wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:16 pmFarsley are in free fall there was also a comment on the Blyth Spartans site recently that they could be in danger of relegation as their ground doesn't come up to national League north standards.super_les_mcjannet wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:54 pmCartman also started tonight and was substituted at 1-0 up for Spencer who played really well in our game at Farsley at the start of the season.
Only ground I can think of that has question marks over it, re staying in the league, is Kettering Not sure if they have the overall capacity. I think their fans were fund raising for it but not sure what the outcome was.
Re: Our run in......
Thanks SuperLes, Mister-E & JE93. Plenty of info to think about there. Roll on Saturday
Re: Our run in......
Free fall seems little harsh when they've picked up more points than us in the last 6 games Although admittedly their longer term form is pretty poor - looks like a regression to the mean after over achieving at the start of the season.Mister e wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:16 pmFarsley are in free fall there was also a comment on the Blyth Spartans site recently that they could be in danger of relegation as their ground doesn't come up to national League north standards.super_les_mcjannet wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:54 pmCartman also started tonight and was substituted at 1-0 up for Spencer who played really well in our game at Farsley at the start of the season.
Saturday is looking a bit of a must win if we want to keep in realistic touching distance of the playoffs considering our following 2 away games. Avoid defeat at Gateshead and see if we can sneak a point at Boston would be a decent return. If we can come away with 5 points out of these next three games then we will be in a decent spot I think with a stretch of winnable games coming up after. Nice to be looking up after the last couple of seasons
Re: Our run in......
I think this is what makes Saturday so big. I'd love to see us just finish the season with something to play for. Even if we don't make it, just taking it to the wire would be nice.
I think that's unlikely if we don't get the win on Saturday, as I think the gap becomes too great, practically but also psychologically.
I think that's unlikely if we don't get the win on Saturday, as I think the gap becomes too great, practically but also psychologically.
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Re: Our run in......
i can see us beating Farsley and Gateshead then losing to Leamington, Curzon and BPA
Re: Our run in......
My predictor currently says you'll need 67 points for a playoff place. But tbh for us that means 68 as our goal difference is so poor.
The current prediction is that Gateshead will climb to 6th with 68 points, Chester will finish 7th with 67 points. We'll come 10th with Spenny, and Guiseley ahead of us on goal difference. Although we'll all finish on 66 points.
For results it reckons:
Farsley (H) - Win
Boston (A) - Lose
Gateshead (A) - Lose
Leamington (H) - Win
Curzon (H) - Win
Kettering (A) - Draw
Bradford (A) - Win
Altrincham (H) - Win
Southport (A) - Draw
Kings Lynn (H) - Draw
18 points for a total of 66.
It wouldn't be a bad end to the season. But if we really want to challenge for a playoff spot we'll need to get closer to 70 points. Turn one of the away results at Boston or Gateshead into a draw and the Kettering result into a win it gives us 69 and I think that would give us a real chance of getting into those playoffs.
The current prediction is that Gateshead will climb to 6th with 68 points, Chester will finish 7th with 67 points. We'll come 10th with Spenny, and Guiseley ahead of us on goal difference. Although we'll all finish on 66 points.
For results it reckons:
Farsley (H) - Win
Boston (A) - Lose
Gateshead (A) - Lose
Leamington (H) - Win
Curzon (H) - Win
Kettering (A) - Draw
Bradford (A) - Win
Altrincham (H) - Win
Southport (A) - Draw
Kings Lynn (H) - Draw
18 points for a total of 66.
It wouldn't be a bad end to the season. But if we really want to challenge for a playoff spot we'll need to get closer to 70 points. Turn one of the away results at Boston or Gateshead into a draw and the Kettering result into a win it gives us 69 and I think that would give us a real chance of getting into those playoffs.
- theoriginalfatcat
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Re: Our run in......
Your predictor seems a bit predictable usually in a spell of ten games you get a result or two which are either a surprise win or a surprise loss.JE93 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:22 pmMy predictor currently says you'll need 67 points for a playoff place. But tbh for us that means 68 as our goal difference is so poor.
The current prediction is that Gateshead will climb to 6th with 68 points, Chester will finish 7th with 67 points. We'll come 10th with Spenny, and Guiseley ahead of us on goal difference. Although we'll all finish on 66 points.
For results it reckons:
Farsley (H) - Win
Boston (A) - Lose
Gateshead (A) - Lose
Leamington (H) - Win
Curzon (H) - Win
Kettering (A) - Draw
Bradford (A) - Win
Altrincham (H) - Win
Southport (A) - Draw
Kings Lynn (H) - Draw
18 points for a total of 66.
It wouldn't be a bad end to the season. But if we really want to challenge for a playoff spot we'll need to get closer to 70 points. Turn one of the away results at Boston or Gateshead into a draw and the Kettering result into a win it gives us 69 and I think that would give us a real chance of getting into those playoffs.
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Re: Our run in......
How do you predict thosetheoriginalfatcat wrote:Your predictor seems a bit predictable usually in a spell of ten games you get a result or two which are either a surprise win or a surprise loss.JE93 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:22 pmMy predictor currently says you'll need 67 points for a playoff place. But tbh for us that means 68 as our goal difference is so poor.
The current prediction is that Gateshead will climb to 6th with 68 points, Chester will finish 7th with 67 points. We'll come 10th with Spenny, and Guiseley ahead of us on goal difference. Although we'll all finish on 66 points.
For results it reckons:
Farsley (H) - Win
Boston (A) - Lose
Gateshead (A) - Lose
Leamington (H) - Win
Curzon (H) - Win
Kettering (A) - Draw
Bradford (A) - Win
Altrincham (H) - Win
Southport (A) - Draw
Kings Lynn (H) - Draw
18 points for a total of 66.
It wouldn't be a bad end to the season. But if we really want to challenge for a playoff spot we'll need to get closer to 70 points. Turn one of the away results at Boston or Gateshead into a draw and the Kettering result into a win it gives us 69 and I think that would give us a real chance of getting into those playoffs.
Most models will go the statistically most likely outcome
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- theoriginalfatcat
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Re: Our run in......
Our run in, I was so much looking forward to it!
It would have been the last game of the season this Saturday coming and a quick scan through on this thread shows that H1987 was the closest with his points estimate of 16 - obvs the total points tally is looking to be zero unless a miracle happens.
Technically the season is still ongoing but does anyone now believe that we will see any football before August?
It would have been the last game of the season this Saturday coming and a quick scan through on this thread shows that H1987 was the closest with his points estimate of 16 - obvs the total points tally is looking to be zero unless a miracle happens.
Technically the season is still ongoing but does anyone now believe that we will see any football before August?
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Re: Our run in......
theoriginalfatcat wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:18 am...
Technically the season is still ongoing but does anyone now believe that we will see any football before August?
I'm starting to question whether we will see in person any football then either.
I hope I am being unduly pessimistic and football is back up and running by then
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Re: Our run in......
Definitely be football by August, it's just which year that is in question.spen666 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:41 amtheoriginalfatcat wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:18 am...
Technically the season is still ongoing but does anyone now believe that we will see any football before August?
I'm starting to question whether we will see in person any football then either.
I hope I am being unduly pessimistic and football is back up and running by then
Re: Our run in......
When I mooted regionalised football and splitting leagues in an earlier thread several posters on here said absolutely no chance. Therefore it's interesting to see now that this very system is now being considered all the way up to the football league championship where they are considered to be wanting to finish this season in August and then temporarily split the league in two to cut costs and apparently protect the integrity of the caraboa cup. I just hope that a vaccine is found sooner rather than later. Not only is this bloody virus having an effect on football it is also crushing people's livelihoods and finances including my own I wish I could do a lot more to help the club at the moment. However I sadly can't see a return to normality any time soon I sincerely hope and pray that I am proved wrong.
Re: Our run in......
They had the chance to regionalise football but the chairmen of L2 and NL clubs voted against it.