Fixture backlog

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Alfie
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Fixture backlog

Post by Alfie » Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:41 am

In his post match interview AA mentiond that as we approach Xmas we still have 37 league games to play!

This must mean 2 games most weeks for the rest of the season, and that's before any postponements.

Going to mean a fair bit of squad rotation to minimise fatigue and injuries - so should we be prepared to maybe put out weakened teams and even lose games we would expect to win because there will be times when keeping players fit and rested takes priority over a single game?

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Darlofan97 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:47 am

We will never put out a weakened side.

We will have to make changes due to injuries, suspensions etc. We have good squad depth of around 21 players and probably have the scope to bring in a couple more if we need.

From the 2nd January we have 34 games in 21 weeks. It’s far from ideal and makes it even more ridiculous the National League won’t allow 5 subs to be made in a match.

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theoriginalfatcat
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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by theoriginalfatcat » Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:07 am

Does the season have a definite end date? Did I read somewhere there was wriggle room?
Mr Singh said this " I'm not expecting to get back any of the money I've already put in, I'm prepared to write it off for the future of the club. I'm not hanging in to make any kind of financial gain in the short or long term - if someone was prepared to come in and take the club off my hands, I'd be more than willing to discuss it"

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by My opinion » Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:44 am

I remember AA saying in an earlier interview that he preferred playing midweek as opposed to training midweek, If I am correct I think he said that the team also preferred playing.
It's not ideal as only 11 get to start a game and only 3 subs can be used. But those 11 should settle as a core playing unit.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by dsr » Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:09 pm

A successful run in the Trophy would, of course, add to the pressure. Three games a week occasionally?

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Old Git » Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:40 pm

dsr wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:09 pm
A successful run in the Trophy would, of course, add to the pressure. Three games a week occasionally?
Would also add to the bank balance.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by bga » Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:56 pm

Old Git wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:40 pm
dsr wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:09 pm
A successful run in the Trophy would, of course, add to the pressure. Three games a week occasionally?
Would also add to the bank balance.
Agree. Fixture back log vs good Cup run and a healthy bank balance you can't have it both ways unfortunately.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by en passant » Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:15 pm

bga wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:56 pm
Old Git wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:40 pm
dsr wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:09 pm
A successful run in the Trophy would, of course, add to the pressure. Three games a week occasionally?
Would also add to the bank balance.
Agree. Fixture back log vs good Cup run and a healthy bank balance you can't have it both ways unfortunately.
Maybe a bigger bank balance might allow for more players to share the fixture load.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by bigdavethemaddog » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:33 pm

i got shot down on Tin Shed forum but i believe trophy should be for kids/fringe players. you only bank £60k for winning it compared to more revenue should promotion be achieved as there is TV revenue for a start in the National League compared with bigger home and away attendances if fans are allowed in. This however is offset by long trips to Torquay, Dover and Ebbsfleet which will require overnight stays.

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theoriginalfatcat
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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by theoriginalfatcat » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:39 pm

The trip to Wembley in 2011 was such a great day out. It was a one off I suppose, but we won The Trophy and it was brilliant. :thumbup:

It should be taken seriously I.M.O.
Mr Singh said this " I'm not expecting to get back any of the money I've already put in, I'm prepared to write it off for the future of the club. I'm not hanging in to make any kind of financial gain in the short or long term - if someone was prepared to come in and take the club off my hands, I'd be more than willing to discuss it"

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:52 pm

theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:07 am
Does the season have a definite end date? Did I read somewhere there was wriggle room?
Has to end in May.

FA have given special dispensation to keep going to 29th May but I think that would have to include conclusion of playoffs.

In reality the chance of the football season completing below our division ended yesterday. Step 3-6 can't play in tier 4, the "trident league" (northern prem, southern prem & Isthmian) said they would have a collective approach. Hancock has said tier 4 will likely last until Easter.

Let's be honest more areas are going into tier 4 in January as well.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Darlofan97 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:17 am

bigdavethemaddog wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:33 pm
i got shot down on Tin Shed forum but i believe trophy should be for kids/fringe players. you only bank £60k for winning it compared to more revenue should promotion be achieved as there is TV revenue for a start in the National League compared with bigger home and away attendances if fans are allowed in. This however is offset by long trips to Torquay, Dover and Ebbsfleet which will require overnight stays.
If we were to win the FA Trophy we would bank £100k+ in prize money plus our share of the gate receipts for the final at Wembley.

I don’t think the revenue one division higher would make that much difference, to be honest. Looking at the sides I think only Hartlepool & Notts County would bring more than York, Gateshead, Blyth etc. We would be due additional TV money but we would have additional travel/hotel costs for the longer journeys, of which there are plenty.

For years we have clamoured for a cup-run, yet we couldn’t buy one under Gray. I don’t think we are in a position to be turning our noses up at the prize-money and possible publicity the FA Trophy could bring! Imagine having 8k/9k+ travelling down to Wembley as a fan-owned club!

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:27 am

I would put Chesterfield, Stockport and Wrexham with Notts County.

Not sure how well they each travel but absolutely think they woukd bring more than Gateshead and Blyth. Especially if it was a later round.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by bga » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:42 am

lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:27 am
I would put Chesterfield, Stockport and Wrexham with Notts County.

Not sure how well they each travel but absolutely think they woukd bring more than Gateshead and Blyth. Especially if it was a later round.
Think darlofan97 is talking about the league not the cup with regards to away support?

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:09 pm

Ah yes that makes sense got confused by mixture of trophy talk.

There is definitely more revenue in the NL than NLN/S. The allocation from the lottery money would 'suggest' it is about double.

I don't see that the league is a certainty if we sacrifice the Trophy so I don't know why we would.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Darlofan97 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:05 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:09 pm
Ah yes that makes sense got confused by mixture of trophy talk.

There is definitely more revenue in the NL than NLN/S. The allocation from the lottery money would 'suggest' it is about double.

I don't see that the league is a certainty if we sacrifice the Trophy so I don't know why we would.
What is double of 'not-much'?

The 18/19 accounts shows a league distribution figure of £15,027. Double that would be c£30k. An additional £15k isn't a great deal, especially when you have additional travelling/hotel costs and some playing/management staff that may expect to be remunerated that bit extra for the step-up.

If we were to be competitive in the National League we would need to all but phase out our 5-year season ticket commitment and have another successful BtB.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:25 pm

Darlofan97 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:05 pm
lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:09 pm
Ah yes that makes sense got confused by mixture of trophy talk.

There is definitely more revenue in the NL than NLN/S. The allocation from the lottery money would 'suggest' it is about double.

I don't see that the league is a certainty if we sacrifice the Trophy so I don't know why we would.
What is double of 'not-much'?

The 18/19 accounts shows a league distribution figure of £15,027. Double that would be c£30k. An additional £15k isn't a great deal, especially when you have additional travelling/hotel costs and some playing/management staff that may expect to be remunerated that bit extra for the step-up.

If we were to be competitive in the National League we would need to all but phase out our 5-year season ticket commitment and have another successful BtB.
Nooo meant £42kish per month (that was figure wasn't it?) and NL got 80kish per month from lottery?

I thought that amount was indicative of the lost revenue from lack of gate receipts and suggests that it is worth twice as much in NL Prem.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by bga » Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:28 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:25 pm
Darlofan97 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:05 pm
lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:09 pm
Ah yes that makes sense got confused by mixture of trophy talk.

There is definitely more revenue in the NL than NLN/S. The allocation from the lottery money would 'suggest' it is about double.

I don't see that the league is a certainty if we sacrifice the Trophy so I don't know why we would.
What is double of 'not-much'?

The 18/19 accounts shows a league distribution figure of £15,027. Double that would be c£30k. An additional £15k isn't a great deal, especially when you have additional travelling/hotel costs and some playing/management staff that may expect to be remunerated that bit extra for the step-up.

If we were to be competitive in the National League we would need to all but phase out our 5-year season ticket commitment and have another successful BtB.
Nooo meant £42kish per month (that was figure wasn't it?) and NL got 80kish per month from lottery?

I thought that amount was indicative of the lost revenue from lack of gate receipts and suggests that it is worth twice as much in NL Prem.
I think you just lit the torch paper again on how lottery money was distributed! That's all gone quiet really hasn't it after clubs initially threatening legal action?

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Darlofan97 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:25 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:25 pm
Darlofan97 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:05 pm
lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:09 pm
Ah yes that makes sense got confused by mixture of trophy talk.

There is definitely more revenue in the NL than NLN/S. The allocation from the lottery money would 'suggest' it is about double.

I don't see that the league is a certainty if we sacrifice the Trophy so I don't know why we would.
What is double of 'not-much'?

The 18/19 accounts shows a league distribution figure of £15,027. Double that would be c£30k. An additional £15k isn't a great deal, especially when you have additional travelling/hotel costs and some playing/management staff that may expect to be remunerated that bit extra for the step-up.

If we were to be competitive in the National League we would need to all but phase out our 5-year season ticket commitment and have another successful BtB.
Nooo meant £42kish per month (that was figure wasn't it?) and NL got 80kish per month from lottery?

I thought that amount was indicative of the lost revenue from lack of gate receipts and suggests that it is worth twice as much in NL Prem.
Lo, you literally said there was more revenue in the National League than NLN/NLS.

The whole original point was how promotion wouldn’t actually be worth that much. The lottery funding is a red-herring given it’s only going to be around for one season.

I have literally no idea what point you were trying to make and how it is relevant to the discussion.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:18 pm

Yes?

I think there is more revenue in the NL than just an increase in gates against two clubs.

I think it is worth more than £100k per season - that was the debate right?

Survival comes with a heap load of extra costs though.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Ghost_Of_1883 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:46 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:52 pm
theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:07 am
Does the season have a definite end date? Did I read somewhere there was wriggle room?
Has to end in May.

FA have given special dispensation to keep going to 29th May but I think that would have to include conclusion of playoffs.
The last round of league fixtures are on the 29th May so I dunno how you think the play offs are going to be concluded in May as well!
#Arenaherewecome

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Darlofan97 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:32 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:18 pm
Yes?

I think there is more revenue in the NL than just an increase in gates against two clubs.

I think it is worth more than £100k per season - that was the debate right?

Survival comes with a heap load of extra costs though.
What revenue stream is worth more than £100k+ if we were to get promoted to the National League, then?

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Old Git » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:11 pm

9 games in January 2021 the first 5 all away and away on all 5 Saturdays. Hope our good away form continues in the New Year.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:33 pm

Darlofan97 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:32 pm
lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:18 pm
Yes?

I think there is more revenue in the NL than just an increase in gates against two clubs.

I think it is worth more than £100k per season - that was the debate right?

Survival comes with a heap load of extra costs though.
What revenue stream is worth more than £100k+ if we were to get promoted to the National League, then?
No idea. Probably none. Does it have to be a single revenue stream?

Those with access to the figures, as submitted by clubs, established that the deficit from being behind closed doors was on average £40k more in NL per month - so effectively £240k over a playing season.

Equally with the figures as declared by an ex manager on what would be needed to compete in the NLP there is a correlation, usually, between budget and income.

As a guess however I would say;
- increase per ticket price
- increased attendances. 10 clubs average more than 1,000 in our division only two don't in NLP.
- television income
- increased per sponsorship income due to increased exposure
- increased league distribution
- entry at later rounds in FA Comp = guaranteed income

Suspect each are small in their own right but aggregate impact is what justifies the difference in allocation of the lottery money this season.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:51 pm

There arent really like for like comparisons with others.

Whilst Wrexham publish with being fan owned and they turned over £4million in 2019, of which £1.1million was gate receipts (on an average of 4,000).

Their average attendances were about 2.85x ours.

I can't remember what our gate receipts were but would be £400,000 to be on par. I feel that was closer to our total revenue than anything else?

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Darlofan97 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:43 pm

Lo, with the greatest of respect, your answer is you don't actually have an answer.

I asked how WE would benefit for an additional £100k+ in revenue from promotion, not Wrexham, or any other club.

You are basing your assumptions on one-off lottery funding which, by all accounts, is based on a questionable formula.

We will benefit from additional league distribution funding, but it isn't much. Hartlepool, Halifax & Notts County will bring a few to BM but aside from Hartlepool, not much more than the York's & Gateshead's of the NLN bring. Fans don't travel to us in their droves.

Increased sponsorship and increased attendances are questionable. There are some really unappealing ties in the National League just as there is at NLN level. It's not a plethora of established and well support ex-Football League clubs, there are a few ex-FL but there are a few bankrolled village sides that carry little clout in terms of reputation.

Ironically, in our league we have a few decent names; York, Chester, Hereford, Gateshead, Kidderminster, Boston, Telford etc.

Increasing ticket prices if we go up may also be slightly contentious given, like I say, not a lot more of the fixtures are more appealing than the league we would be departing.

There isn't a magic pot of money in the league above where we can start generating £100k+ more than what we already do, especially when you consider the hit we will have to take on additional travel costs. Today's fundraiser of £4k to stay over in Weymouth is an example of that.

The biggest thing for us is phasing out the 5-year season tickets and potentially generating additional commercial revenue at the Arena. Neither can really be linked to promotion to the National League.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:55 pm

I agree I don't know I disagree I am basing it on one thing only.

I see there are 5 things.
1. Average attendance are 2.5x those in NLN across the division. I feel you are being dismissive over the extra impact that has elsewhere - extra exposure means higher commercial revenue.
2. The clubs you mentioned have some appeak. I think you are way too quick to ignore Wrexham, Chesterfield, Torquay, Yeovil, Stockport, Barnet, Aldershot and Dagenham. All are a level above Telford, Hereford and Gateshead. Their attendances would tell you as much - that is what justifies the 20% increase in standard admission (£18 v £15).
3. Televised games + Cup entry points is a guaranteed extra £10k a season before a ball is kicked. £7,000 + c. £2,000 + c.£1,000
4. The lottery fund. I am going on what (until disproven) is the position that it was distributed based on lost revenues. £82k per month v £39k per month is a substantial difference. Maybe it will be found to be questionable. It is being questioned by the clubs above the line rather than below it though which suggests for the vast majority it is about right. What we do know is each club was asked to submit figures in their lost revenues from being BCD and that is the outcome. A trail of calculations won't be hard to identify as a result.
5. Simply the correlation between revenue and cost. If clubs aren't generating greater revenues then they are just losing more money. The clubs are clearly able to spend more because they can generate more.

Will our net financial position be £100k better off absolutely not. Would operating in the NL generate cumulative revenue gains of over £100k absolutely believe so, and that is based on more than lottery distribution.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by Darlofan97 » Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:37 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:55 pm
I agree I don't know I disagree I am basing it on one thing only.

I see there are 5 things.
1. Average attendance are 2.5x those in NLN across the division. I feel you are being dismissive over the extra impact that has elsewhere - extra exposure means higher commercial revenue.
2. The clubs you mentioned have some appeak. I think you are way too quick to ignore Wrexham, Chesterfield, Torquay, Yeovil, Stockport, Barnet, Aldershot and Dagenham. All are a level above Telford, Hereford and Gateshead. Their attendances would tell you as much - that is what justifies the 20% increase in standard admission (£18 v £15).
3. Televised games + Cup entry points is a guaranteed extra £10k a season before a ball is kicked. £7,000 + c. £2,000 + c.£1,000
4. The lottery fund. I am going on what (until disproven) is the position that it was distributed based on lost revenues. £82k per month v £39k per month is a substantial difference. Maybe it will be found to be questionable. It is being questioned by the clubs above the line rather than below it though which suggests for the vast majority it is about right. What we do know is each club was asked to submit figures in their lost revenues from being BCD and that is the outcome. A trail of calculations won't be hard to identify as a result.
5. Simply the correlation between revenue and cost. If clubs aren't generating greater revenues then they are just losing more money. The clubs are clearly able to spend more because they can generate more.

Will our net financial position be £100k better off absolutely not. Would operating in the NL generate cumulative revenue gains of over £100k absolutely believe so, and that is based on more than lottery distribution.
1). Torquay is 275+ miles away, Yeovil is 250+ miles away, Barnet, Aldershot & Dagenham are in or around London. They are not going to bring big away followings. Stockport never brought many to Blackwell/Heritage Park, IIRC.

Are the followings really going to be much bigger? Just because attendances are x2.5 up in the National League will not necessarily correlate to increased attendances for us. Especially when, barring Hartlepool, the closest side is Halifax. You have other clubs way more spread out compared to the NLN; Dover, Weymouth, Eastleigh, Boreham Wood, Maidenhead, Wealdstone etc and that’s on top of Torquay, Yeovil, Barnet, Dagenham & Aldershot! It’s quite London/Southern centric which aids in the attendances for these clubs. They can all travel in numbers to each other, we won’t benefit from that 200+ miles away.

2) You can probably get away with charging £18 down in London. I highly doubt we will increase our prices to this much. £18 to see us play Wealdstone, Dover, Maidenhead, Solihull Moors, Sutton, Bromley, Woking, Altrincham, Boreham Wood, Weymouth, Dover, Kings Lynn? No thanks.

3) Have you considered the fact that later entry points result in prize money not being generated from earlier rounds we would have partaken in at NLN level? If not our net position has reduced.

4) The lottery funding is a red-herring. How many times? The formula is questionable, it is a one-off. Regardless, this isn’t a comparison against other clubs. This is how promotion impacts US.

5) No idea what you’re trying to explain here.

The biggest driver of revenue for us is gate receipts. Sadly we won’t benefit hugely from this if we were promoted because of how London/Southern centric the National League is. A result of this is how we won’t benefit hugely from increase commercial revenue, not when you’re playing some southern no-mark side from 200+ miles away.

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:15 am

Darlofan97 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:37 pm
3) Have you considered the fact that later entry points result in prize money not being generated from earlier rounds we would have partaken in at NLN level? If not our net position has reduced
Yeh I wouldn't budget on that...

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Re: Fixture backlog

Post by lo36789 » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:17 am

Darlofan97 wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:37 pm
4) The lottery funding is a red-herring. How many times? The formula is questionable, it is a one-off. Regardless, this isn’t a comparison against other clubs. This is how promotion impacts US.
And you know this because you have seen the workings?

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