Darlo Uncovered

Darlofan97 wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:37 pm

1). Torquay is 275+ miles away, Yeovil is 250+ miles away, Barnet, Aldershot & Dagenham are in or around London. They are not going to bring big away followings. Stockport never brought many to Blackwell/Heritage Park, IIRC.

Attendance increases aren't just made up of away fans.

Darlofan97 wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:37 pm

5) No idea what you’re trying to explain here.

Comparable playing budgets

National £758k (mean) £659k (median)
National North £304k (mean) £262k (median)

Comparable attendances

National 2,700 (mean) 1,786 (median)
National North 1,036 (mean) 993 (median)

Simply put more money out is indicative of more money in. If you are spending more as a group it suggests that as a group you are collectively bringing in more.

You question the distribution formula but actually when you compare budgets (assume that directors are not running their companies insolvent because it is illegal to do so). The allocated money in "lost revenue" to the NL sides is a similar factor of the budgets and attendances.

lo36789 wrote:I agree I don't know I disagree

Lo36789 in seven words. A load of waffle that makes no sense whatsoever.

A deeply unintelligent man who has nothing to say and hundreds of words to say it in.

Perhaps if he went away and actually thought about what he was going to post, rather than typing out the first several thousand words that come into his head, we might get something useful out of the discussion, and he wouldn’t make so many basic factual errors.

Solidarity payments are rumoured to be about £57k in NL and £13k for NLN FWIW.

It's incremental amounts but the top level figures absolutely suggest that a middle of the road NL club will be able to generate >£100k more revenue than a middle of the road NLN club.

That doesn't change that costs will far outweigh that. Which is why their revenue streams are more likely to be 2x the size of NLN clubs.

As I openly admit I don't know the ins and outs, but neither do you.

I think it is a limited view to only see the difference in revenue from a few games and the volume of away fans. All the evidence points to that as a whole NL clubs generate more revenue than NLN clubs do, and that it is more than £100k per season.

We charged £18 for a National League ticket nearly 10 years ago by the way, and our attendances were greater than they are now.

The NL contains loads of pretend football teams with no fans. Grimsby when they were in the NL remarked how many times away fans were less than 20!

Completely disrespectful and also not true. Only 6 teams average less spectators than we do and that includes Barnet (last season).

The likes of Ebbsfleet and Borehamwood are a little artificial but the rest of the division are respectable sides with fan bases in their local communities. Obviously Weymouth and Kings Lynn were promoted last season and their respective populations would suggest they would struggle to sustain at that level.

Beyond that most places have populations considerable bigger than Darlington - is it really fair to not respect their local football team?

lo36789 wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:17 am

Darlofan97 wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:37 pm

4) The lottery funding is a red-herring. How many times? The formula is questionable, it is a one-off. Regardless, this isn’t a comparison against other clubs. This is how promotion impacts US.

And you know this because you have seen the workings?

I'm basing it on the fact 9 National League member clubs asked the National League Chairman to resign over its allocation. That's fairly damning.

Like I say, regardless, this point is a red-herring. It doesn't impact us if we were promoted.

lo36789 wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:30 am

Darlofan97 wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:37 pm

5) No idea what you’re trying to explain here.

Comparable playing budgets

National £758k (mean) £659k (median)
National North £304k (mean) £262k (median)

Comparable attendances

National 2,700 (mean) 1,786 (median)
National North 1,036 (mean) 993 (median)

Simply put more money out is indicative of more money in. If you are spending more as a group it suggests that as a group you are collectively bringing in more.

You question the distribution formula but actually when you compare budgets (assume that directors are not running their companies insolvent because it is illegal to do so). The allocated money in "lost revenue" to the NL sides is a similar factor of the budgets and attendances.

Lo, you are pointlessly comparing other budgets to ours.

This isn't about other clubs, it is about our club and our circumstances.

As explained, there is not a magic pot of money in the league above. I keep asking where this additional £100k+ will be coming from yet you can't provide me with a solid answer.

The simple fact that you mentioned Torquay in your argument for away followings, a club which is 350+ miles away, is just ridiculous.

It's not about the impact it's about the indication of respected revenues between the division. The 9 that queried it were those receiving the higher amount right - which when you look at their respective standing in their division you can understand.

Show me where I said that Torquay would bring a large away following. You are suggesting that the only difference in revenue between the division is the amount of away fans and that is simply not true.

lo36789 wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:55 am

Solidarity payments are rumoured to be about £57k in NL and £13k for NLN FWIW.

It's incremental amounts but the top level figures absolutely suggest that a middle of the road NL club will be able to generate >£100k more revenue than a middle of the road NLN club.

That doesn't change that costs will far outweigh that. Which is why their revenue streams are more likely to be 2x the size of NLN clubs.

As I openly admit I don't know the ins and outs, but neither do you.

I think it is a limited view to only see the difference in revenue from a few games and the volume of away fans. All the evidence points to that as a whole NL clubs generate more revenue than NLN clubs do, and that it is more than £100k per season.

We charged £18 for a National League ticket nearly 10 years ago by the way, and our attendances were greater than they are now.

Stop.Comparing.Other.Clubs.To.Us.

One of the reasons why National League clubs generate more revenue is because of the close proximity of around 14 clubs that can bring good away followings to each other.

We won't benefit from that, and gate receipts is our greatest driver of revenue.

lo36789 wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:19 am

Show me where I said that Torquay would bring a large away following. You are suggesting that the only difference in revenue between the division is the amount of away fans and that is simply not true.

One of the reasons.

And, like I have said time and time again to you, this is not about other clubs. We are talking about the impact of promotion to Darlington Football Club. You start diversifying and start talking about other clubs. "Well other National League clubs generate more revenue, so we will too".

It's too simplistic to state that. Really simplistic, especially without explaining where the additional revenue will be coming from.

And I think it's too simplistic to think that just because there aren't substantial increases in away followings means that there won't be additional revenues generated.

Well yes because I can hardly compare us to the Darlington Football Club who are playing in the National League right now as a like for like comparison.

Vodka_Vic wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 22, 2020 9:23 am

The NL contains loads of pretend football teams with no fans. Grimsby when they were in the NL remarked how many times away fans were less than 20!

Let's face it Grimsby isn't the nicest place to visit. I only went because we always seemed to won 0-1. Sorry Andy.

lo36789 wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:28 am

And I think it's too simplistic to think that just because there aren't substantial increases in away followings means that there won't be additional revenues generated.

Well yes because I can hardly compare us to the Darlington Football Club who are playing in the National League right now as a like for like comparison.

I have asked time & time again where this additional revenue will be generated from, especially to the tune of £100k+, and you cannot provide a well-reasoned, and evidenced, answer.

It does prove my original point, which has kind of been lost in the debate. Promotion to the National League isn’t actually worth that much.

I've told you that it's a mixtures of the actually money you get given is

- £45k extra solidarity
- £10k extra TV plus FA Comp guarantee

The rest is indicative of increased exposure, increased commercial revenues, increased attendances in aggregate (home interest inclusive in that) and personally believe that is worth at least £45k in extra revenue.

Simply put you can charge more. From a purely marketing stand point what we charge £500 for Hartlepool charge £1100. What we charge £1000 for Stockport charge £1400.

If we were promoted my estimate would be 1700 attendances at a higher price point. With a corresponding uptick in price charged for all other commercial revenues.

Of course it is guess work - I can't sim it - I don't have a model to do that. I am using other indicators that are available of increased revenue generation one step up. That is how you develop models though you use assumptions based upon what figures do exist.

Do we sacrifice trophy games for league game no, do we sacrifice league games for cup game no - because neither are a certainty anyway. So you don't sacrifice unless it guarantees or substantially increased the probability of the other outcome arising.

lo36789 wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:52 am

I've told you that it's a mixtures of the actually money you get given is

- £45k extra solidarity
- £10k extra TV plus FA Comp guarantee

The rest is indicative of increased exposure, increased commercial revenues, increased attendances in aggregate (home interest inclusive in that) and personally believe that is worth at least £45k in extra revenue.

Simply put you can charge more. From a purely marketing stand point what we charge £500 for Hartlepool charge £1100. What we charge £1000 for Stockport charge £1400.

If we were promoted my estimate would be 1700 attendances at a higher price point. With a corresponding uptick in price charged for all other commercial revenues.
- I can't sim it - I don't have a model to do that. I am using other indicators that are available of increased revenue generation one step up. That is how you develop models though you use assumptions based upon what figures do exist.

Do we sacrifice trophy games for league game no, do we sacrifice league games for cup game no - because neither are a certainty anyway. So you don't sacrifice unless it guarantees or substantially increased the probability of the other outcome arising.

Sounds to me that your whole argument is based on rumour and guesswork

If we manage to get promoted at some time in the future then this endless debate will be relevant. Hopefully DJ will still be in charge and I for one will be happy to follow the plan he puts forward for sustainability in the NL. The only thing I would say it is likely to involve a step away from the purely fans owned model we currently have. That in itself will be highly contentious for some but is an argument for the future.

My opinion wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:09 am

Sounds to me that your whole argument is based on rumour and guesswork

It is more an interpretation of indicators. It's not a guarantee, the assumptions are disclosed.

I don't think it's that huge a leap to find the equivalent of 60p extra per fan per week in revenue (commercial uptick and gate receipts) once playing at a national level.

I really struggle to see where we are going to attract an additional 250+ fans from at an increased price.

Once you've knocked off the extra travelling/hotel costs and extra staffing costs promotion is not worth much at all.

That is a different matter. I agree costs are considerably higher. So yes financially it may be a net negative position.

Even at a granular level match official fees when expenses are taken into account will be at least 2x higher in NL than NLN. Probably looking a £500-£600 a game v £200-£300 now.

I actually think if we were getting promoted we would be getting 1700-1800 in this division.

I don't think our crowd is actually that price sensitive. Decrease by £2 now and we wouldn't get loads more, by the same token increase by £2 and I don't think we would see a huge decrease. I think they are more performance sensitive than price sensitive.

Darlofan97 wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:17 am

Imagine having 8k/9k+ travelling down to Wembley as a fan-owned club!

And this is where we'd get an extra 200-250 from.

If we got promoted it would absolutely spark interest amongst those.

Another ones gone. Tuesday home game with Hereford postponed due to their FA Trophy tie at Stamford being called off today because of the weather. That tie now taking place on Tuesday. Just adds a little bit more to the congestion unfortunately.

I'm sure Hereford aren't too happy either, a midweek trip to Darlo is a long long way. Today's win doesn't help the fixture backlog either.

It would have been a midweek fixture anyway

Darlo_Pete wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:56 pm

I'm sure Hereford aren't too happy either, a midweek trip to Darlo is a long long way.

Boston have the pleasure twice

Imagine their reaction if Boston get drawn away to us.

jjljks wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:35 pm

Imagine their reaction if Boston get drawn away to us.

They will be pleased if we play as poorly as on their recent visit.