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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:15 am 
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I've nothing to say at this point but just wanted to give it its own thread for when we do start to talk about it.

I'd start one for the Labour Leadership election but Jez is going no where ;)


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:23 pm 
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Boris has pulled out or not put himself forward, which I'm pretty shocked about. Perhaps he was told that he wouldn't win, for forcing Cameron out.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:25 pm 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
Boris has pulled out or not put himself forward, which I'm pretty shocked about. Perhaps he was told that he wouldn't win, for forcing Cameron out.

Gove's declaration killed Boris and I'm glad he did it.

Whilst I would have loved Boris as PM (I view BoJo as the Tory with the broadest appeal), more important to me right now is getting a full as possible extraction from the EU and I just didn't trust Boris to do that.

Now it'll likely be Gove or May I feel more comfortable but it'll be Gove that gets my vote because I'm more convinced his euroskepticism is deeper than May's although that would not necessarily have been the case if May had backed Leave.

And I tell you what - UK politics right now is mesmerisingly fascinating and will be looked upon as a golden time by history scholars of the future.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:49 pm 
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Not sure this can get any worse. I was relying on Boris to do a pretty soft exit from the EU as most of his campaign alluded to.

Been speaking to folk across our business sector recently and they were clinging onto hopes that we will keep free movement of people. Farming, Retail and Manufacturing sectors talk as if their sector will crumble without the means to acquire man power from if we bring in a points based system.

There needs to be a very wide public consultation and potentially a vote on the type of exit we have from the EU. What are the red lines in or negotiations with the EU when we form our future trade agreements etc.

I am quite confident if it went to a public vote we'd get a majority in favour of maintaining free movement of goods, services and people.

Anyway I am just hoping for Crabb. Gove couldn't even unite the education sector, in fact he drove a stake so far into it it will be decades before it recovers - if it ever will, never mind unite a country. The same can be said of May on the police force, honestly I think the miners like Thatcher more.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:50 pm 
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lo36789 wrote:
Not sure this can get any worse. I was relying on Boris to do a pretty soft exit from the EU as most of his campaign alluded to.

Been speaking to folk across our business sector recently and they were clinging onto hopes that we will keep free movement of people. Farming, Retail and Manufacturing sectors talk as if their sector will crumble without the means to acquire man power from if we bring in a points based system.

There needs to be a very wide public consultation and potentially a vote on the type of exit we have from the EU. What are the red lines in or negotiations with the EU when we form our future trade agreements etc.

I am quite confident if it went to a public vote we'd get a majority in favour of maintaining free movement of goods, services and people.

Anyway I am just hoping for Crabb. Gove couldn't even unite the education sector, in fact he drove a stake so far into it it will be decades before it recovers - if it ever will, never mind unite a country. The same can be said of May on the police force, honestly I think the miners like Thatcher more.


No public vote will be required or given on the EU deal and if all Tories can unite behind the leader they won't need the MPs from other parties.

There is certainly no mandate for the free movement of people from the electorate. Even a fair few Remainians had issues with immigration but voted Remain for economic reasons.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:00 pm 
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There is no mandate on free movement of people from the electorate either way? Even a fair few brexiters have said it wasn't immigration which was the driver of their vote - in fact leave have suggested that immigration was not the main argument.

Unless you are referring to leave campaign slogans as the mandate against free movement of people in which case the next government need to deliver on a mandate which includes maintaining existing trade relationships with the EU, and generate free trade agreements with the US, China and Australia, spend £350million per week on the NHS and have our own legislative and regulatory environment which continues to protect workers rights to the same extent as that of currently adopted EU laws and regs.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:02 pm 
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lo36789 wrote:
I am quite confident if it went to a public vote we'd get a majority in favour of maintaining free movement of goods, services and people.


Do you not realise why the vote went the way it did ?

Cameron himself has said that free movement of people was THE ISSUE. I'm lost for words ....

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:11 pm 
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I'd say the people voting to leave the EU and be in control of our own laws was a mandate for the Government to dispense with the EU regulation of free movement.

Immigration wasn't the main argument because sovereignty was which by its nature meant immigration control must fully return to parliament. Are you really suggesting a main party will have in it's manifesto support for uncontrolled immigration. They'd stand no chance.

You, like many others, seem to be confusing the Leave campaign with the government. Why, other than stupidity, do you do this? Leave couldn't give a mandate because they weren't in power to deliver. Please tell me how Gisela Stuart would carry out these 'manifesto' pledges?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:23 pm 
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well so there you go. The only thing which the leave decision requires is that we leave the European Union that is it the be all and end all. There are no implications beyond that as all Brexit 'suggestions' are off the table.

Controlling our immigration policy could be nothing more than us having a policy which allows any national of EEA states with an offer of employment to work in the UK.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:27 pm 
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If it came down to Gove and May, I think both would do a decent job, but I'd favour Gove. May's trouble is that she supported the wrong side in the EU referendum.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:35 pm 
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lo36789 wrote:
well so there you go. The only thing which the leave decision requires is that we leave the European Union that is it the be all and end all. There are no implications beyond that as all Brexit 'suggestions' are off the table.

Controlling our immigration policy could be nothing more than us having a policy which allows any national of EEA states with an offer of employment to work in the UK.

If the UK just left the UK and left it at that (i.e. no negotiations) there would be no free movement of people. We could do that right now and wouldn't need any input from the public or MPs.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:53 pm 
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Well we would need input from MPs because the referendum is not binding.

But see how there are two sides to it. There is one which is that the referendum result requires us to completely severe the link with the EU absolutely and completely.

Given there is talk of uniteing a country the above doesn't seem to me like it would satisfy 48% of those who voted. In fact the closer you can get to our existing relationship means that;
a) We have left the EU (referendum result met, 52% have got what they wanted - rememher any promises in Brexit campaign are irrelevant now that was just a campaign not the government)
b) The 48% get a compromise as things aren't significantly different to what they voted for which was effectively for things to be as they are now. It's impossible to deny that all the remain vote was for was maintaining the current relationship with the EU.

Btw...I am on absolute wind up mode here. I have been basically working since 7am and was working until 23:30 last night so just poking fun.

Given the stuff I've seen recently I am pretty convinced that most FIs (and I'd be surprised if it weren't true for multi-nationals in other sectors) will be moving their HQ's to the EU if free movement of people isn't maintained. They simply won't gamble on the UK government seeing their skills gaps matching what the UK government deem to be the UKs skills shortage.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:13 pm 
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Henley wrote:
lo36789 wrote:
well so there you go. The only thing which the leave decision requires is that we leave the European Union that is it the be all and end all. There are no implications beyond that as all Brexit 'suggestions' are off the table.

Controlling our immigration policy could be nothing more than us having a policy which allows any national of EEA states with an offer of employment to work in the UK.

If the UK just left the UK and left it at that (i.e. no negotiations) there would be no free movement of people. We could do that right now and wouldn't need any input from the public or MPs.


I mean... I guess maybe the UK could leave the UK, but I think that might be a little over the top. ;)

As for not needing input from MPs, I certainly don't speak from a position of authority, but if this BBC article is anything to go by then there could be a bit of a legal shitstorm if Article 50 is triggered without parliamentary approval.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-u ... u-36671629


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:15 pm 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
If it came down to Gove and May, I think both would do a decent job, but I'd favour Gove. May's trouble is that she supported the wrong side in the EU referendum.


Are you a paid up member of the Tory Party? Pete.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:26 pm 
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Hawkeye wrote:
Henley wrote:
lo36789 wrote:
well so there you go. The only thing which the leave decision requires is that we leave the European Union that is it the be all and end all. There are no implications beyond that as all Brexit 'suggestions' are off the table.

Controlling our immigration policy could be nothing more than us having a policy which allows any national of EEA states with an offer of employment to work in the UK.

If the UK just left the UK and left it at that (i.e. no negotiations) there would be no free movement of people. We could do that right now and wouldn't need any input from the public or MPs.


I mean... I guess maybe the UK could leave the UK, but I think that might be a little over the top. ;)

As for not needing input from MPs, I certainly don't speak from a position of authority, but if this BBC article is anything to go by then there could be a bit of a legal shitstorm if Article 50 is triggered without parliamentary approval.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-u ... u-36671629


Eh? Article 50 can be triggered by the PM without any approval from parliament. Why do you think Cameron said (before the referendum) that he would trigger it immediately?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:41 pm 
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Henley wrote:
Hawkeye wrote:
Henley wrote:
lo36789 wrote:
well so there you go. The only thing which the leave decision requires is that we leave the European Union that is it the be all and end all. There are no implications beyond that as all Brexit 'suggestions' are off the table.

Controlling our immigration policy could be nothing more than us having a policy which allows any national of EEA states with an offer of employment to work in the UK.

If the UK just left the UK and left it at that (i.e. no negotiations) there would be no free movement of people. We could do that right now and wouldn't need any input from the public or MPs.


I mean... I guess maybe the UK could leave the UK, but I think that might be a little over the top. ;)

As for not needing input from MPs, I certainly don't speak from a position of authority, but if this BBC article is anything to go by then there could be a bit of a legal shitstorm if Article 50 is triggered without parliamentary approval.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-u ... u-36671629


Eh? Article 50 can be triggered by the PM without any approval from parliament. Why do you think Cameron said (before the referendum) that he would trigger it immediately?

Well it looks like that may be open for debate - unless that entire BBC article is completely made up (which seems unlikely, somehow), a legal challenge could be mounted on constitutional grounds.

The paper referenced in the above article was only posted on Monday, so a not-so-crazy explanation for Cameron saying he'd trigger Article 50 immediately is that he simply wasn't aware it might not be allowed. Seems like the sort of thing you'd check first though, doesn't it...


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:03 pm 
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Hawkeye wrote:
Henley wrote:
Hawkeye wrote:
Henley wrote:
lo36789 wrote:
well so there you go. The only thing which the leave decision requires is that we leave the European Union that is it the be all and end all. There are no implications beyond that as all Brexit 'suggestions' are off the table.

Controlling our immigration policy could be nothing more than us having a policy which allows any national of EEA states with an offer of employment to work in the UK.

If the UK just left the UK and left it at that (i.e. no negotiations) there would be no free movement of people. We could do that right now and wouldn't need any input from the public or MPs.


I mean... I guess maybe the UK could leave the UK, but I think that might be a little over the top. ;)

As for not needing input from MPs, I certainly don't speak from a position of authority, but if this BBC article is anything to go by then there could be a bit of a legal shitstorm if Article 50 is triggered without parliamentary approval.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-u ... u-36671629


Eh? Article 50 can be triggered by the PM without any approval from parliament. Why do you think Cameron said (before the referendum) that he would trigger it immediately?

Well it looks like that may be open for debate - unless that entire BBC article is completely made up (which seems unlikely, somehow), a legal challenge could be mounted on constitutional grounds.

The paper referenced in the above article was only posted on Monday, so a not-so-crazy explanation for Cameron saying he'd trigger Article 50 immediately is that he simply wasn't aware it might not be allowed. Seems like the sort of thing you'd check first though, doesn't it...


It's merely the BBC hanging their hope on to loose threads. For a couple of reasons (Royal Perogative and the way the referendum bill was drafted and ultimately passed), the Government have the right to trigger Article 50.

The only reason anyone would try to contest this through the courts is to delay the triggering because they would end up losing.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:21 pm 
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Unelected Prime Ministers just triggering article 50 without the say of parliament and the crumbling of the opposition to the government. I am so happy that we have or democracy back. Power to the people.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:45 pm 
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I don't quite get why the EU are so keen on getting us to trigger Article 50 so quickly. Is it because they're worried we just repeal the 1972 European Communities Act and legislate our way around having to give them the 2 year's notice?

With regard to the leadership thing - I don't think Boris would have made a good Prime Minister, sadly. For all his faults he seems to have a shred of decency about him. I don't really know anything about those that are running... whether any can be trusted and, then, whether they would make a good PM.

I agree with Henley - it's a real "popcorn at the ready" moment, and not just in the UK because I know loads of non-Brits who are just as fascinated about what's going to happen next.

There's a sensible piece of commentary here worth reading from John Redwood about the EU's stance and what we could do about it:

The EU says no single market without freedom of movement


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:30 pm 
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slappys forskin wrote:
Darlo_Pete wrote:
If it came down to Gove and May, I think both would do a decent job, but I'd favour Gove. May's trouble is that she supported the wrong side in the EU referendum.


Are you a paid up member of the Tory Party? Pete.


No I've never been a member for any political party.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:49 pm 
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I'd like to see Crabb as the new Tory leader and Angela Eagle taking over from Corbyn just for the sexual(ity) tension.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 10:07 am 
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Having just listened to Andrea Leadsom being interviewed I would really like to see her as the next Tory leader.

She sounds like someone who's had "a proper job" and knows how to crack the whip to get things done. She proposes expanding both Heathrow and Gatwick and improving the transport infrastructure in the North (maybe by the creation of a new Northern transport hub) so this would have a positive effect on employment opportunities in the North, and it sounds like she has some good ideas about how to run government more efficiently.

I'm sure you all saw her in the run up to the referendum but I didn't watch any of the debates so this was the first time I'd listened to her. I found what she had to say very encouraging...

http://www.lbc.co.uk/listen-leadsom-mak ... -pm-133111


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:02 am 
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A couple of plans have been outlined for leaving the EU

Neither of the plans involves joining the EEA (or allowing free movement of people) and both involve falling back on WTO tariffs which Britain could absorb on exports thanks to the drop in the pound but may lead to a special deal if the Germans don't want the WTO tariff added to the cost of the cars they sell here, and the French don't want the same adding to their golden delicious apples.

As I mentioned in my post above I hope to see Andrea Leadsom as one of the two candidates put to the party membership to vote on. I think Theresa May will be the other one but I hope all the MPs currently supporting the other Leave candidates throw their support around AL, and Leave.eu have done.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 6:20 pm 
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Mr_Tibbs wrote:
Having just listened to Andrea Leadsom being interviewed I would really like to see her as the next Tory leader.

She sounds like someone who's had "a proper job" and knows how to crack the whip to get things done. She proposes expanding both Heathrow and Gatwick and improving the transport infrastructure in the North (maybe by the creation of a new Northern transport hub) so this would have a positive effect on employment opportunities in the North, and it sounds like she has some good ideas about how to run government more efficiently.

I'm sure you all saw her in the run up to the referendum but I didn't watch any of the debates so this was the first time I'd listened to her. I found what she had to say very encouraging...

http://www.lbc.co.uk/listen-leadsom-mak ... -pm-133111


If she pips Gove to the final 2, I sincerely hope the grassroots will vote for her.

You can't have a Remainian being leader (however reluctant they may have been). Our current PM is resigning because he was a Remainian so it'd be madness to replace him with another.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 8:45 pm 
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Henley wrote:
Mr_Tibbs wrote:
Having just listened to Andrea Leadsom being interviewed I would really like to see her as the next Tory leader.

She sounds like someone who's had "a proper job" and knows how to crack the whip to get things done. She proposes expanding both Heathrow and Gatwick and improving the transport infrastructure in the North (maybe by the creation of a new Northern transport hub) so this would have a positive effect on employment opportunities in the North, and it sounds like she has some good ideas about how to run government more efficiently.

I'm sure you all saw her in the run up to the referendum but I didn't watch any of the debates so this was the first time I'd listened to her. I found what she had to say very encouraging...

http://www.lbc.co.uk/listen-leadsom-mak ... -pm-133111


If she pips Gove to the final 2, I sincerely hope the grassroots will vote for her.

You can't have a Remainian being leader (however reluctant they may have been). Our current PM is resigning because he was a Remainian so it'd be madness to replace him with another.


I agree May is not the right person for the job.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 9:28 pm 
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Darlo_Pete wrote:
slappys forskin wrote:
Darlo_Pete wrote:
If it came down to Gove and May, I think both would do a decent job, but I'd favour Gove. May's trouble is that she supported the wrong side in the EU referendum.


Are you a paid up member of the Tory Party? Pete.


No I've never been a member for any political party.


If you pay your union fees at work then you are contributing to the Labour party, even if you hate them!


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 10:17 pm 
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I used to be a union official, but deliberately opted out of the political option contribution, therefore I never contributed to the Labour Party.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:27 am 
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Leasdom would be my choice, though I suspect the best she'll get is a close second behind the wave of support for May and perhaps a senior job in the cabinet. Though, as Henley right points out, if she can rally the grassroots of the party to her side and become the Leave camp's choice you never know.

Anyone but Fox or Gove though, odious pair of cretins.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:43 pm 
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What on Earth Liam Fox is doing in the race I'll never know - is it some sort of joke? I don't understand how somebody so thoroughly corrupt still manages to be an elected MP.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 10:05 am 
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Hawkeye wrote:
What on Earth Liam Fox is doing in the race I'll never know - is it some sort of joke? I don't understand how somebody so thoroughly corrupt still manages to be an elected MP.


He'll be out in the first round. Andrea Leadsom is now a clear 2nd behind Theresa May...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... true#gid=0


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