Run in

[onewayup]

Only 3 home games left of the 8 game run in,hopefully I can make 6 of them, we need to get as many fans to as many games to bolster the team in this fantastic run in, and hopefully make a final push for a play off place, com,on darlo

[JE93]

For any geeks out there like me who are lovers of statistical analysis. I put together a little spreadsheet that tracks fixtures and results and uses results across the league to date to predict the results of the remaining games and thus the final table.

How things currently stand. There are still a few teams around us both above and below with games in hand. I think the top 4 places in the league are pretty secure and the form York are in over the last 10 games I wouldn't be surprised if they got up into 5th by the end of the season. I think 6th and 7th are to play for, Chorley and Southport are in mediocre form and any team from Spennymoor upwards has a shot of the playoffs if they put a run together.



Form wise only Gateshead, Brackley and York are in better form than us over the last 10 games. Those 4 poor results against sides below us really do stick out, had we converted vs Kettering or Guiseley, had we won both we'd be defending 5th position. Our next opponents Leamington seem to be in middling form, a few wins a few draws and a few defeats in their last 10 games.

[JE93]

Predicted table below (disclaimer, I don't think it will end up like this, the way the model works is to extrapolate past results over the remaining games of the season so teams who made a good start like Curzon, Chorley, Kettering are probably enjoying a bit of a boost compared to where their form in the last 10 games would place them, but its pretty hard to build things like form etc into statistical models reliably)

As above, not sure I agree with the current predicted final table Curzon and Kettering I definitely think will finish lower than us and as I said in the post above I think anyone from 12th upwards in the current table will be thinking about 6th and 7th place.

At the very top of the league sorry to the resident one Gateshead fan but the model does like a mean defence over a free scoring side and so its tipped Brackley for the title. Again not sure I agree, have been expecting Brackley and their trademark 1-0 to start slipping up all season, but since it hasn't maybe this will be their year to go all the way.

My personal predicition would be:
1) Gateshead
2) Brackley
3) Fylde
4) Kidderminster
5) York
6) Chorley
7) (could be anyone)



If we want that predicted table to change, we can start with the next game. Based on our away results to date and Leamington's home results the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. Turn that into a win in real life and we can start making a move up that predicted league.

[spen666]

For any geeks out there like me who are lovers of statistical analysis. I put together a little spreadsheet that tracks fixtures and results and uses results across the league to date to predict the results of the remaining games and thus the final table.

How things currently stand. There are still a few teams around us both above and below with games in hand. I think the top 4 places in the league are pretty secure and the form York are in over the last 10 games I wouldn't be surprised if they got up into 5th by the end of the season. I think 6th and 7th are to play for, Chorley and Southport are in mediocre form and any team from Spennymoor upwards has a shot of the playoffs if they put a run together.



Form wise only Gateshead, Brackley and York are in better form than us over the last 10 games. Those 4 poor results against sides below us really do stick out, had we converted vs Kettering or Guiseley, had we won both we'd be defending 5th position. Our next opponents Leamington seem to be in middling form, a few wins a few draws and a few defeats in their last 10 games.

Have you tried comparing it with the predicted final league table & match results on Football Web Pages at

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/nati ... /predicted

No idea how they predict their results, or how accurate they turn out to be

[AndyPark]

They’ve predicted us to get 9 points from our remaining 8 games…

[spen666]

They’ve predicted us to get 9 points from our remaining 8 games…

If you are referring to the Football Web Pages table, at the bottom of the table there is a link to their predicted results for the rest of the season, so you can see what games they predict points from.

Like I say, I have no idea how they do their predictions as some seem positively bizarre. If the predict 9 points from 8 games, then it suggests to me that recent form is not a big factor.

They do it for all leagues from Premiership down to tier 8.

[JE93]

In terms of my own analysis it works by giving teams attacking and defensive scores based on their home and away results. Attacking strength looks at goals for divided by average goals for in the league, similarly defensive strength is goals against divided by average goals against for the league. Plus the average goals scored by a home / away team. The following formulas then calculate how many goals will be scored by either and thus the result.
Home side goals = Attacking strength x away team defensive strength x league average home goals scored
Away side goals = Attacking strength x home team defensive strength x league average away goals scored

As I said above its very hard to build in form reliably from a modelling perspective. In my model you'd have to attribute a goal scoring or defensive factor to form and then apply it to the overall result, but then how would you calculate the factor, at what point do you stop giving this factor (eg when does a run of form end) etc.

Results from my predictive analysis:
Leamington - 1-1 Draw
Alfreton - 1-1 Draw
Curzon - 1-1 Draw
Gateshead - 2-0 Loss
Brackley - 1-0 Loss
BPA - 2-1 Win
Farsley - 2-0 Win
Kidderminster 2-0 Loss

2 W, 3 D, 3 L = 9 points from 8 games

Football web pages:
Leamington - 1-1 Draw
Alfreton - 1-1 Draw
Curzon - 2-0 Win
Gateshead - 3-0 Loss
Brackley - 1-1 Draw
BPA - 2-1 Loss
Farsley - 3-0 Win
Kidderminster 3-0 Loss

2 W, 3 D, 3 L = 9 points from 8 games

I think the relatively poor looking results are because we've been fairly poor away from home this season. I think we're 14th in the away table and we're coming up against sides who's home form has actually been okay Leamington, Alfreton etc have won the majority of their points at home this season. But as I say above if we can improve against the predicted results eg wins at Leamington and Alfreton rather than draws it pulls us right into the mix for the final play off places.

In reality I think we're going to need 18 points from the final 8 games to make the playoffs. Very tough ask and I still think we'll fall short but massive credit to AA and the team for injecting some excitement back into the season.

[spen666]

In terms of my own analysis it works by giving teams attacking and defensive scores based on their home and away results. Attacking strength looks at goals for divided by average goals for in the league, similarly defensive strength is goals against divided by average goals against for the league. Plus the average goals scored by a home / away team. The following formulas then calculate how many goals will be scored by either and thus the result.
Home side goals = Attacking strength x away team defensive strength x league average home goals scored
Away side goals = Attacking strength x home team defensive strength x league average away goals scored

....

You've missed out the sh*t referee factor, and
the returning ex player scoring against his former team factor and
the bloody fluke goal factor


Seriously, it looks good to me. Very interested in similarity to Football Web Pages Predictions. The one big difference is the BPA result where both predict 2-1, FWP say loss and you say win.

Love to see how it reflects at end of season

Excellent bit of spreadsheet analysis

[Darlopartisan]

Might of got the name wrong,but didn’t we have someone called Ginge from USA if my falling memory is correct, who use to do brilliant permutations on the run in.
Anyone?

[Quaker85]

In terms of my own analysis it works by giving teams attacking and defensive scores based on their home and away results. Attacking strength looks at goals for divided by average goals for in the league, similarly defensive strength is goals against divided by average goals against for the league. Plus the average goals scored by a home / away team. The following formulas then calculate how many goals will be scored by either and thus the result.
Home side goals = Attacking strength x away team defensive strength x league average home goals scored
Away side goals = Attacking strength x home team defensive strength x league average away goals scored

As I said above its very hard to build in form reliably from a modelling perspective. In my model you'd have to attribute a goal scoring or defensive factor to form and then apply it to the overall result, but then how would you calculate the factor, at what point do you stop giving this factor (eg when does a run of form end) etc.

Results from my predictive analysis:
Leamington - 1-1 Draw
Alfreton - 1-1 Draw
Curzon - 1-1 Draw
Gateshead - 2-0 Loss
Brackley - 1-0 Loss
BPA - 2-1 Win
Farsley - 2-0 Win
Kidderminster 2-0 Loss

2 W, 3 D, 3 L = 9 points from 8 games

Football web pages:
Leamington - 1-1 Draw
Alfreton - 1-1 Draw
Curzon - 2-0 Win
Gateshead - 3-0 Loss
Brackley - 1-1 Draw
BPA - 2-1 Loss
Farsley - 3-0 Win
Kidderminster 3-0 Loss

2 W, 3 D, 3 L = 9 points from 8 games

I think the relatively poor looking results are because we've been fairly poor away from home this season. I think we're 14th in the away table and we're coming up against sides who's home form has actually been okay Leamington, Alfreton etc have won the majority of their points at home this season. But as I say above if we can improve against the predicted results eg wins at Leamington and Alfreton rather than draws it pulls us right into the mix for the final play off places.

In reality I think we're going to need 18 points from the final 8 games to make the playoffs. Very tough ask and I still think we'll fall short but massive credit to AA and the team for injecting some excitement back into the season.

This method is well documented by countless YouTubers all shilling useless beat the bookies videos


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[darloed19]

Based on the last two completed seasons that have had 6 place playoff spots (Obviously it is a different situation with 4 places because of motivation etc.) we need 64 points to get into the playoffs. Meaning we need 17 more points in order to secure a place. This would require either 6 wins and 2 losses or 5 wins 2 draws and 1 loss. As realistic predictions as possible:

Leamington Draw
Alfreton Win
Curzon Win
Gateshead Lose
Brackley Lose
Bradford PA Win
Farsley Win
Kiddy Draw

I think we have left it too late and dropped some very easy points throughout the season to make playoffs. I hope I am wrong though!

[darlo reborn]

Yes i remember Ginge predicting things no idea what happened to him

[jjljks]

Ginge used to provide great analysis of current trends as applied to remaining fixtures, most often towards the end of the season. Maybe leaving it a bit late this year but I hope he still follows us. Some great insights!

[m62exile]

I know that ginge still listens to commentary every week from the US so I imagine he still frequents this board.


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[comeondarlo]

Come back Ginge, Darlo needs you!