The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Open now for discussion of all things Darlo!

Moderators: mikkyx, uncovered

Post Reply
Ginge01
Posts: 904
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:19 pm
Team Supported: Darlington
Location: United States

The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by Ginge01 » Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:34 pm

I’ve decided to start up my predictions for the season, I’m normally superstitious so I was hesitant to do it :) , jjljks asked where my predictions were in the messaging on Darlofans Radio today. I hope I don’t destroy the teams luck and jinx them.
I look at how teams play against each other at the top, also the number of outstanding Top 12 games to play between clubs. The very top teams tend to do a better job beating the other Top teams, that separates them from everyone else. Right now there are two of those Brackley and Gateshead, then Fylde and Kidderminster moving towards a playoff place, the fun is from 5th place down. There is a gap between Spennymoor 12th and Curzon Ashton 13th, so I’m only focusing on the Top 12. I’ve done things like this before going back to 2013 when we played in lower divisions and had promotion runs against Salford and Blyth. I've thrown this together today, I hope anyone who reads it likes it.


Today’s games, Saturday Apr 2nd 2022
Leamington... 0-1 Darlington
Boston......... 1-1 Blyth
Brackley....... 1-0 Gateshead
Bradford...... 0-0 Kidderminster
Chorley........ 2-0 Guiseley
Curzon Ashton 0-3 Spennymoor
Fylde.......... 3-1 Farsley
Hereford...... 1-2 Alfreton
Southport..... 0-1 Kettering
Telford........ 2-1 Gloucester

The Vanarama National League North, Saturday Apr 2nd 2022

...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
01. Gateshead.... 35 14 1 2.. 10 4 .4. 77 37. 40.. 77
02. Brackley....... 34 14 2 1... 9 6 .2. 48 19. 29.. 77
03. Fylde.......... 35 11 2 4... 9 4 .5. 58 32. 26.. 66
04. Kidderminster 34 11 2 3... 7 6 .5. 59 29. 30.. 62
05. Chorley ....... 33 10 3 3... 5 7 .5. 53 38. 15.. 55
06. York............ 32.. 9 3 6... 6 3 .5. 48 39. .9.. 51
07. Southport..... 34.. 8 7 2... 5 4 .8. 51 41. 10.. 50
08. Darlington.... 35.. 9 3 6... 5 5 .7. 54 48. ..6.. 50
09. Boston......... 34.. 9 4 5... 5 3 .8. 50 49. ..1.. 49
10. Hereford...... 35.. 8 4 6... 5 5 .7. 43 42. ..1.. 48
11. Kettering...... 33.. 6 6 4... 7 2 .8. 47 43. ..4.. 47
12. Spennymoor... 34.. 6 6 4... 7 2 .9. 47 46. ..1.. 47
13. Curzon Ashton 33.. 6 5 5... 5 5 .7. 42 49. .-7.. 43
14. Alfreton....... 33.. 4 7 5... 7 1 .9. 44 53. ..-9.. 41
15. Leamington... 34.. 9 4 5... 1 6 10. 33 41 ..-8.. 40
16. Chester ....... 34.. 7 5 5... 3 3 11. 59 61. .-2.. 38
17. Bradford. ..... 34.. 7 3 7... 3 5 .9. 41 56. -15.. 38
18. Gloucester..... 35.. 4 7 6... 4 5 .9. 37 53. -16.. 36
19. Telford..........36.. 7 4 7... 0 8 10. 43 58. -15.. 33
20. Blyth........... 35.. 6 2 10.. 3 2 12. 32 67. -35.. 31
21. Farsley......... 34.. 5 5 6... 2 3 13. 31 69. -38.. 29
22. Guiseley....... 33.. 5 5 8... 2 1 12. 24 51. -27.. 27


Comments in current full league table order,
Top 12 games outstanding are listed with their matchdates.

Gateshead;
Top 12 games remaining; Darlington (H) 18/04, Kettering (A) 23/04, Southport (H) 30/04, Chorley (A) 02/05, Hereford (H) 07/05;
Brackley 1-0 Gateshead; Gateshead with more Top 12 games to play look to be finishing second at season’s end.

Brackley;
Top 12 games remaining; York (H) 09/04, Boston (H) 18/04, Darlington (A) 23/04, Hereford (A) 02/05;
Brackley 1-0 Gateshead; Big big win today over Gateshead to give Brackley the edge now to win the league.

Fylde;
Top 12 games remaining; Hereford (H) 09/04, Southport (A) 15/04, Boston (A) 23/04, Kettering (H) 30/04, York (A) 02/05;
Fylde 3-1 Farsley; Two second half goals earn the three points today after the games was tied 1-1 at half time.

Kidderminster;
Top 12 games remaining; Southport (H) 09/04, Kettering(H) 18/04,Darlington (H) 07/05;
Bradford 0-0 Kidderminster; Kidderminster held away to a goalless draw at Bradford.

Chorley;
Top 12 games remaining; Boston (H) 05/04, York (H) 12/04, Gateshead (H) 02/05, Spennymoor (A) 07/05;
Chorley 2-0 Guiseley; A goal in each half over bottom place Guiseley.

York;
Top 12 games remaining; Kettering (A) 05/04, Brackley (A) 09/04, Chorley (A) 12/04, Spennymoor (H) 15/04, Fylde (H) 02/05;
No game today, York playing in the F.A. trophy.

Southport;
Top 12 games remaining; Kidderminster (A) 09/04, Fylde (H) 15/04, Spennymoor (H) 23/04, Gateshead (A) 30/04;
Southport 0-1 Kettering; A setback today in the chase for a playoff place for Southport, conceding a second half penalty to lose.

Darlington;
Top 12 games remaining; Gateshead (A) 18/04, Brackley (H) 23/04, Kidderminster (A) 07/05;
Leamington 0-1 Darlington; A second half goal was enough to grab three valuable away points, a third successive win for the Quakers.

Boston;
Top 12 games remaining; Chorley (A) 05/04, Brackley (A) 18/04, Flyde(A) 23/04;
Boston 1-1 Blyth; No game today. Boston salvage a point with an injury time equaliser

Hereford;
Top 12 games remaining; Flyde (A) 09/04, Spennymoor (A) 30/04, Brackley (H) 02/05, Gateshead (A) 07/05;
Hereford 1-2 Alfreton; Hereford slip up at home, conceding two first half goals on the way to a 1-2 home loss.

Kettering;
Top 12 games remaining; York (A) 05/04, Kidderminster (A) 18/04, Gateshead (H) 23/04, Fylde (A) 30/04;
Southport 0-1 Kettering; A huge away win at Southport keeps Kettering’s playoff dreams alive.

Spennymoor;
Top 12 games remaining; York (A) 15/04, Southport (A)23/04, Hereford (H) 30/04, Chorley (H) 07/05;
Curzon Ashton 0-3 Spennymoor; Spenny separate themselves from Curzon Ashton with this big away win to remain in the playoff hopeful group.


This week’s games

05/04 Tuesday
Chorley......... vs Boston
Curzon Ashton vs Brackley
Kettering...... vs York
Kidderminster. vs Alfreton
Spennymoor... vs Bradford

09/04 Saturday
Alfreton....... vs Darlington
Brackley....... vs York
Bradford....... vs Chorley
Curzon Ashton vs Boston
Farsley......... vs Kettering
Fylde........... vs Hereford
Gateshead..... vs Chester
Kidderminster. vs Southport
Spennymoor... vs Leamington


Comments

Going for the league championship, Brackley’s win over Gateshead, these teams were neck and neck, Brackley now with that one game in hand become favourites to win the league.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
01. Gateshead.... 35 14 1 2.. 10 4 .4. 77 37. 40.. 77
02. Brackley....... 34 14 2 1... 9 6 .2. 48 19. 29.. 77


The playoff second group, Fylde extend their points lead after winning and Kidderminster’s disappointing 0-0 draw at Bradford.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
03. Fylde.......... 35 11 2 4... 9 4 .5. 58 32. 26.. 66
04. Kidderminster 34 11 2 3... 7 6 .5. 59 29. 30.. 62


The playoff third group, those occupying fifth thru seven, Chorley pull away from York who didn’t play and Southport who lost at home 0-1 to playoff chasing Kettering.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
05. Chorley ....... 33 10 3 3... 5 7 .5. 53 38. 15.. 55
06. York............ 32.. 9 3 6... 6 3 .5. 48 39. .9.. 51
07. Southport..... 34.. 8 7 2... 5 4 .8. 51 41. 10.. 50


The playoff chasers, Darlington lead this pack and jump above Hereford and Boston with a win at Leamington. They are hoping for continued consistent form while someone above slips up and falls away. Boston slide after a 1-1 draw home to Blyth, Hereford lose home to Alfreton while Kettering’s away win at Southport and Spennymoor’s big win at Curzon Ashton keeps playoff hopes alive.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
08. Darlington.... 35.. 9 3 6... 5 5 .7. 54 48. ..6.. 50
09. Boston......... 34.. 9 4 5... 5 3 .8. 50 49. ..1.. 49
10. Hereford...... 35.. 8 4 6... 5 5 .7. 43 42. ..1.. 48
11. Kettering...... 33.. 6 6 4... 7 2 .8. 47 43. ..4.. 47
12. Spennymoor... 34.. 6 6 4... 7 2 .9. 47 46. ..1.. 47


Predictions
Champions Brackley, less Top 12 opponents to play than Gateshead (5-4)

Playoffs participants;
Gateshead Fylde, Kidderminster, all moving towards mathematical certainty

Chorley, York, Darlington. Southport are struggling (two draws, three losses in the last five games) and could slide out of the playoff slots soon.
York may wobble but regain momentum approaching season’s end. York’s next two weeks are Kettering (A) 05/04, Brackley (A) 09/04, Chorley (A) 12/04, Spennymoor (H) 15/04, three very tough away games that could see them fall out of the top 7 if they lose two or more of them over the next two weeks, the remaining fixtures are mostly bottom 12 teams and their momentum could reappear with a late surge into the top 7. Darlington need to keep it going, hopefully with a positive result next week at Alfreton.

jjljks
Posts: 2498
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:25 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by jjljks » Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:14 am

Thanks, Ginge. Quality posting!

Darlopartisan
Posts: 1212
Joined: Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:49 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by Darlopartisan » Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:50 am

Welcome back, the main man on statistics, excellent post 👍

Darlo_Pete
Posts: 13514
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:13 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by Darlo_Pete » Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:57 am

Good to have you back with your excellent summary. Hopefully, we'll have a very exciting end to the season.

My opinion
Posts: 646
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:13 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by My opinion » Sun Apr 03, 2022 8:04 am

Thanks Ginge. Your end of season run in predictions are very welcome.

Old Git
Posts: 1692
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:09 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by Old Git » Sun Apr 03, 2022 8:32 am

Some interesting games coming up in the next couple of weeks for our main rivals.
Southport have Kidderminster A, Leamington H and Fylde H in their next 3 games.
York have 3 games in hand but that means 10 games to fit in 32 days by my reckoning. Their next 3 are all away at Kettering, Brackley and Chorley before a home game on Good Friday with Spennymoor.
If we can go about our business and record victories against Alfreton and Curzon Ashton we could possibly be in a very handy position. We will need to because of course we then have Gateshead and Brackley to play next.

User avatar
theoriginalfatcat
Posts: 5428
Joined: Wed Jul 15, 2009 7:40 pm
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by theoriginalfatcat » Sun Apr 03, 2022 8:42 am

Sometimes, if you play the top teams at the end of the season they have nothing to play for because their position is sorted. We've just got to keep it going.
A stopped clock is right twice a day.
The Blackwell Meadows clock is wrong all day every day.

jjljks
Posts: 2498
Joined: Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:25 am
Team Supported: Darlington

Re: The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by jjljks » Sun Apr 03, 2022 9:41 am

theoriginalfatcat wrote:
Sun Apr 03, 2022 8:42 am
Sometimes, if you play the top teams at the end of the season they have nothing to play for because their position is sorted. We've just got to keep it going.
Not forgetting Darlo often play better against top teams!

Ginge01
Posts: 904
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:19 pm
Team Supported: Darlington
Location: United States

Re: The Top 12, Saturday April 2nd 2022

Post by Ginge01 » Wed Apr 06, 2022 6:11 pm

jjljks wrote:
Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:14 am
Thanks, Ginge. Quality posting!
Thanks jjljks, I'm glad you like it
Darlopartisan wrote:
Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:50 am
Welcome back, the main man on statistics, excellent post 👍
Thank you for your kind comment
Darlo_Pete wrote:
Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:57 am
Good to have you back with your excellent summary. Hopefully, we'll have a very exciting end to the season.
Thanks Darlo_Pete, I'm glad you liked it, I'm hoping for an exciting end to the season and seventh place or above :)
My opinion wrote:
Sun Apr 03, 2022 8:04 am
Thanks Ginge. Your end of season run in predictions are very welcome.
Thank you My Opinion for your kind words

Post Reply