The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

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Ginge01
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The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by Ginge01 » Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:11 pm

Today’s games, Monday Apr 18th 2022
Gateshead.... 4-2 Darlington
Alfreton....... 3-0 York
Brackley....... 0-1 Boston
Bradford....... 0-0 Guiseley
Curzon Ashton 1-0 Chorley
Farsley......... 2-0 Southport
Fylde.......... 3-1 Chester
Gloucester.... 1-0 Hereford
Kidderminster. 0-0 Kettering
Spennymoor... 3-0 Blyth

The Vanarama National League North, Monday Apr 18th 2022

...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
01. Gateshead.... 38 16 1 2.. 11 4 .4. 91 42. 49.. 86
02. Brackley....... 38 15 2 2... 9 8 .2. 49 20. 29.. 82
03. Fylde.......... 38 13 2 4... 9 5 .5. 63 34. 29.. 73
04. Kidderminster 38 12 3 4... 7 7 .5. 67 32. 35.. 67
05. Chorley ....... 38 11 4 4... 5 8 .6. 58 44. 14.. 60
06. Boston......... 38 10 4 5... 7 3 .9. 58 52. ..6.. 58
07. Kettering...... 38. 8 6 5... 7 4 .8. 51 46. ..5.. 55
08. York............ 37 10 3 6... 6 4 .8. 51 47. ..4.. 55
09. Spennymoor.. 38.. 8 6 5... 7 2 10. 51 49. ..2.. 53
10. Southport..... 38.. 8 9 2... 5 4 10. 52 50. ..2.. 52
11. Darlington.... 38.. 9 3 7... 5 6 .8. 56 54. ..2.. 51
12. Hereford...... 38.. 9 4 6... 5 5 .9. 45 45. ..0.. 51
13. Alfreton........ 37.. 5 8 5... 9 1 .9. 50 54. -4.. 51
14. Curzon Ashton 37.. 7 6 6... 6 5 .7. 45 53. .-8.. 50
15. Bradford. ..... 38.. 7 5 7... 4 5 10. 44 58. -14.. 43
16. Leamington... 38.. 9 5 5... 1 7 11. 34 43. .-9.. 42
17. Gloucester..... 38.. 6 7 6... 4 5 10. 42 55. -14.. 42
18. Chester ....... 37.. 7 6 5... 3 3 13. 65 70. .-5.. 39
19. Farsley......... 38.. 7 6 6... 2 3 14. 36 72. -36.. 36
20. Blyth........... 38.. 7 2 10.. 3 3 13. 36 73. -37.. 35
21. Telford..........38.. 7 5 7... 0 8 11. 45 61. -16.. 34
22. Guiseley....... 38.. 5 5 9... 3 2 14. 27 62. -35.. 31


Comments in current full league table order,
Top 12 games outstanding are listed with their matchdates.

Gateshead;
Top 12 games remaining (4); Kettering (A) 23/04, Southport (H) 30/04, Chorley (A) 02/05, Hereford (H) 07/05;
Gateshead 4-2 Darlington; stay top of the table after erasing an 0-2 HT deficit with four goals inside the last 25 mins.

Brackley;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Darlington (A) 23/04, Hereford (A) 02/05;
Brackley 0-1 Boston; Brackley remain in second place after failing to score for the second straight game and conceded an 88th min goal to playoff chasing Boston and lose 0-1.

Fylde;
Top 12 games remaining (3); Boston (A) 23/04, Kettering (H) 30/04, York (A) 02/05;
Fylde 3-1 Chester; Fylde remain in third place after a 3-1 win, leading 2-0 at half time, extending it to 3-0 before Chester scored their only goal.

Kidderminster;
Top 12 games remaining (1); Darlington (H) 07/05;
Kidderminster 0-0 Kettering; Kidderminster remain in fourth place, after a goalless draw home to playoff chasing Kettering.

Chorley;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Gateshead (H) 02/05, Spennymoor (A) 07/05;
Curzon Ashton 1-0 Chorley; Chorley lose for the second consecutive game, conceding just a 16th min goal to Curzon Ashton. Chorley remain in fifth place.

Boston;
Top 12 games remaining (1); Flyde(A) 23/04;
Brackley 0-1 Boston; Boston keep their playoff hopes alive by going to Brackley and scoring the only goal of the game after 88 mins. Boston rise to sixth place.

Kettering;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Gateshead (H) 23/04, Fylde (A) 30/04;
Kidderminster 0-0 Kettering; Kettering earned a valuable away point at 4th place Kidderminster. Kettering rise one place to seventh.

York;
Top 12 games remaining (1); Fylde (H) 02/05;
Alfreton 3-0 York; York suffered a setback to their playoff hopes with a bad 0-3 loss at Alfreton. York trailed 0-2 at half time before conceding a third five mins from time. York fall two places to eighth place.

Spennymoor;
Top 12 games remaining (3); Southport (A) 23/04, Hereford (H) 30/04, Chorley (H) 07/05;
Spennymoor 3-0 Blyth; Spenny rise three places to ninth after scoring two first half goals and one second half goal to beat Blyth 3-0.

Southport;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Spennymoor (H) 23/04, Gateshead (A) 30/04;
Farsley 2-0 Southport; Southport’s poor form continues, conceding two second half goals to lose 0-2 at Farsley.

Darlington;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Brackley (H) 23/04, Kidderminster (A) 07/05;
Gateshead 4-2 Darlington; A great start from Darlington had them leading 2-0 after 17 mins which they held until the 66th min. Being part time and suffering injuries hit them with four goals conceded to finish the game 2-4. Darlington fall three places to eleventh place.

Hereford;
Top 12 games remaining (3); Spennymoor (A) 30/04, Brackley (H) 02/05, Gateshead (A) 07/05;
Gloucester 1-0 Hereford; Hereford fall to twelfth place after conceding a second half to lose 0-1 to Gloucester.


This week’s games

04/23 Saturday
Darlington..... vs Brackley
Blyth........... vs Kidderminster
Boston......... vs Fylde
Chester........ vs Farsley
Chorley......... vs Telford
Guiseley........ vs Curzon Ashton
Hereford....... vs Bradford
Kettering....... vs Gateshead
Leamington.... vs Alfreton
Southport...... vs Spennymoor
York............. vs Gloucester


Comments

Going for the league championship, Gateshead are favourites to win the league with their four point league after Brackley’s loss today.

...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
01. Gateshead.... 38 16 1 2.. 11 4 .4. 91 42. 49.. 86
02. Brackley....... 38 15 2 2... 9 8 .2. 49 20. 29.. 82


The playoff second group, Fylde with a comfortable 6 point lead.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
03. Fylde.......... 38 13 2 4... 9 5 .5. 63 34. 29.. 73
04. Kidderminster 38 12 3 4... 7 7 .5. 67 32. 35.. 67


The playoff third group, those occupying fifth thru seven place, Chorley’s lead narrows again with their loss today. A huge win for Boston at Brackley today, Kettering now lead York by a goal difference of +5 to +4.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
05. Chorley ....... 38 11 4 4... 5 8 .6. 58 44. 14.. 60
06. Boston......... 38 10 4 5... 7 3 .9. 58 52. ..6.. 58
07. Kettering...... 38. 8 6 5... 7 4 .8. 51 46. ..5.. 55


The playoff chasers, York fall to eighth. So will Kettering stumble, and York get back in, both times have to play Fylde, Kettering also has to play Gateshead.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
08. York............ 37 10 3 6... 6 4 .8. 51 47. ..4.. 55
09. Spennymoor.. 38.. 8 6 5... 7 2 10. 51 49. ..2.. 53
10. Southport..... 38.. 8 9 2... 5 4 10. 52 50. ..2.. 52
11. Darlington.... 38.. 9 3 7... 5 6 .8. 56 54. ..2.. 51
12. Hereford...... 38.. 9 4 6... 5 5 .9. 45 45. ..0.. 51


Predictions
Champions Gateshead, with a comfortable four point lead.

Playoffs participants;
Brackley Fylde, Kidderminster, all moving towards mathematical certainty

Chorley, Boston, York. Chorley still need points, Boston have momentum, I'm picking York to get seventh place. I think the Darlington dream is probably over, too many injuries, one point from the last nine with Brackley next to play, although that could finish up being a one goal game. Darlington need to win that game and hope Kettering lose to Gateshead, and Soutport vs Spenny is a draw.

jjljks
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by jjljks » Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:14 am

Thanks ginge01 for those stark figures which show the playoffs are no longer in our own hands. I agree the dream is over for this season and the only glimmer may be the hope of our own ground somewhere within the town boundaries. Even that is only a glimmer and AA needs to start thinking about next season.

PierremontQuaker03
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by PierremontQuaker03 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:04 pm

We need to win every game to get into the playoffs. Saturday is last chance saloon. Stranger things have happened. All's I care is that we go for the win on Saturday, the pressure will be on Brackley as they are going for 1st place.
“If you can't hit a driver, don't.”
Greg Norman

H1987
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by H1987 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:09 pm

The Curzon result was the final nail, yesterday you would never expect us to get anything. Being rid of two of the full time sides would be nice ahead of next year. Gateshead and Fylde saying goodbye would probably be best for us.

Elsewhere, it's likely that we will be joined by Buxton after South Shields slipped up against Whitby. They'll likely face the playoffs which will most likely also include Scarborough and Warrington.

Kings Lynn are likely heading back to us, but the other three currently in the relegation zone of the national are all south of London, so you'd imagine some more shuffling will occur, as the 'North' rapidly becomes even more ridiculous. Elsewhere, Banbury (Oxfordshire) are leading the Southern League so would likely end up in the North if promoted (I believe technically Southern League sides *can* end up in the South still but it's all but impossible now). Playoff sides in that league include AFC Rushden and Diamonds . If the National league relegation zones end up with a bit of a shake up, in the unlikely event Barnet were to be relegated, they'd quite possibly end up in the North too. A London team. Presumably we will end up with more shuffled over from the Conference South (possibly Oxford City or St Albans).

There really needs to be a rethink about how this division is managed. To my mind, the only division that should be promoting to the Conference North is the NPL. Pushing two up from the Southern League (either here, or into the South and then moving 'northerly' South teams across) is just warping the league more and more. It gets worse with each passing season. We are likely to lose Gateshead, Fylde, and Guiseley and get Buxton, Kings Lynn, Banbury, and some shuffled 'northerly' south sides. Arguably the only real northern side we will get will be from the NPL playoff at this rate.

lo36789
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by lo36789 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 1:19 pm

H1987 wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:09 pm
There really needs to be a rethink about how this division is managed. To my mind, the only division that should be promoting to the Conference North is the NPL. Pushing two up from the Southern League (either here, or into the South and then moving 'northerly' South teams across) is just warping the league more and more. It gets worse with each passing season. We are likely to lose Gateshead, Fylde, and Guiseley and get Buxton, Kings Lynn, Banbury, and some shuffled 'northerly' south sides. Arguably the only real northern side we will get will be from the NPL playoff at this rate.
Out of interest what do you propose instead?

As the crow flies it is about 550km from Berwick to Portsmouth whereas Great Yarmouth to Penzance is c. 575km. I suspect that there are clubs in NLS saying that really there should be an East / West split introduced into that division given where there teams come from.

It's really down to geography of England isn't it. Where would the midpoint be on a map of England if you went from say Berwick, Penzance and Great Yarmouth as the crow flies, and adjusted it for the relative populations from those points.

I would guess the answer to both is somewhere between Oxford, Milton Keynes and Coventry. Travelling from Northumberland to Essex is actually probably quicker and easier than going from Kent to Dorset.

spen666
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by spen666 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:12 pm

H1987 wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:09 pm
... . If the National league relegation zones end up with a bit of a shake up, in the unlikely event Barnet were to be relegated, they'd quite possibly end up in the North too. A London team. Presumably we will end up with more shuffled over from the Conference South (possibly Oxford City or St Albans).
If Barnet went down, they would not go into the NLN.

The FA take the 48 teams at step 2 and split them so the most northerly 24 end up in NLN and the southern ones in NLS. (This is subject to a bit of tinkering at the edge, if its easier for a team on boundary to travel one way or the other, it is possible for a more southerly team to end up in NLN and vice versa.)



There really needs to be a rethink about how this division is managed. To my mind, the only division that should be promoting to the Conference North is the NPL. Pushing two up from the Southern League (either here, or into the South and then moving 'northerly' South teams across) is just warping the league more and more. It gets worse with each passing season. We are likely to lose Gateshead, Fylde, and Guiseley and get Buxton, Kings Lynn, Banbury, and some shuffled 'northerly' south sides. Arguably the only real northern side we will get will be from the NPL playoff at this rate.
The NPL and Southern League Premier Midland Division generally promote to NLN and the Isthmian League & Southern League Premier South promote to the NLS

The name of Southern League Midland only indicates who administers the league.

The country is a funny shape. The distance/ time travelling from say Lowestoft to Penzance is further than the distance from say Berwick to Gloucester. The shape of the country does not allow for an easy split of country. Effectively we have 2 huge divisions at Step 2. North & Midlands and then South East & South West

The FA idea of a permanent pyramid is a nonsense. The country is not uniform in geography, links etc or population

Travel distances are too long for part time players

shildonlad
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by shildonlad » Tue Apr 19, 2022 3:04 pm

In a ideal world the conference north should go no further south than northampton but it all depends on how many come down from conference national. Lately it seems to be the southern teams that are poor whilst the northern ones are flying, look at play offs where apart from sollihull all teams are north of birmingham. I think the southern league central is a poor nameX should be called midland league. At least having that league means less travel in northern premier which seems to be north of derby these days
I may not live in the north east anymore but i still support the north east teams

H1987
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by H1987 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 3:39 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 1:19 pm
H1987 wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:09 pm
There really needs to be a rethink about how this division is managed. To my mind, the only division that should be promoting to the Conference North is the NPL. Pushing two up from the Southern League (either here, or into the South and then moving 'northerly' South teams across) is just warping the league more and more. It gets worse with each passing season. We are likely to lose Gateshead, Fylde, and Guiseley and get Buxton, Kings Lynn, Banbury, and some shuffled 'northerly' south sides. Arguably the only real northern side we will get will be from the NPL playoff at this rate.
Out of interest what do you propose instead?

As the crow flies it is about 550km from Berwick to Portsmouth whereas Great Yarmouth to Penzance is c. 575km. I suspect that there are clubs in NLS saying that really there should be an East / West split introduced into that division given where there teams come from.

It's really down to geography of England isn't it. Where would the midpoint be on a map of England if you went from say Berwick, Penzance and Great Yarmouth as the crow flies, and adjusted it for the relative populations from those points.

I would guess the answer to both is somewhere between Oxford, Milton Keynes and Coventry. Travelling from Northumberland to Essex is actually probably quicker and easier than going from Kent to Dorset.
I’d sooner there was a consensus decision reached as to what constitutes north and what constitutes south (in a footballing sense) and then a line is drawn and the leagues that feed into that level are appropriate. We are in the situation we are in currently because of the constant funnelling of southern sides into the north division. (I understand they look at the sides at this level and then divide them, but that number of sides is constantly being warped because more southern than northern sides are promoted each season with the set up as it currently is - we’ve got 6 southern and 2 northern sides coming to this level each year, that’s simply unsustainable).

Honestly being London based, I’m selfishly quite alright about games in Oxfordshire, but it seems ridiculous and what’s more, im concerned about what it means for the club financially (could live without having to go to Essex mind, which might also be on the cards)…

lo36789
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by lo36789 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:21 pm

So your issue is the name of the division.

If the division was called National League most Northern and National League most Southern would that address your issue?

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by lo36789 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:49 pm

H1987 wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 3:39 pm
I’d sooner there was a consensus decision reached as to what constitutes north and what constitutes south (in a footballing sense) and then a line is drawn and the leagues that feed into that level are appropriate.
In this world how do you handle relegation at the point when you go up the steps - as at some point the region will narrow towards a national division.

Do teams get reprieved from relegation because they aren't southern or northern enough?

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by H1987 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:51 pm

No, not particularly. As a northerner down south, i've done the 'where is south' and 'where is north' debate to death and I think it can be a little silly at times. It's not really about the label. My main concern is unrealistic travel distances being handed out in a supposedly regionalised league. By the nature of the current structure of the pyramid, tier 3 of the non-league has four divisions of the same level, but 3 out of the 4 are southern divisions (and I don't agree that the southern league is southern in name only, there's a handful of teams from the southern midlands and when you look at the amount of travel involved in this league as opposed to the NPL for example, it's night and day. Even Grantham are in the NPL, hardly northern is it!).

To me, that is what either needs sorting out, or those leagues are structured in a different way so they only feed into the National South. A Southern premier league could feed into the National South and solely the NPL into the National North. Split the level below that at the southern level more. Most of these Southern leagues are filled with teams getting diddy little crowds compared to even the NPL that has FC United, Shields, Scarborough and a bunch of other sides that would be a good addition to our level. Instead we will end up with Village Rangers of the Cotswolds who average 300 a game winning the southern playoff and then have to travel to Blyth midweek (I'm being deliberately provocative here, but there is a wider point - we shouldn't be redrawing the league every year because of the teams coming up as well as those coming down from the national - which will always cause some degree of a problem because you can't control who that will be - but you can control the direction of those sides coming up)

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by shildonlad » Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:52 pm

Another thing to bear in mind about the north/south in-balance is the serious lack of north east teams promoted over the years. Imagine how many more north east teams there would be at national league north level or even national league level had teams been promoted from the northern league since the 80s like other parts of the country
I may not live in the north east anymore but i still support the north east teams

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by shildonlad » Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:53 pm

H1987 wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:51 pm
No, not particularly. As a northerner down south, i've done the 'where is south' and 'where is north' debate to death and I think it can be a little silly at times. It's not really about the label. My main concern is unrealistic travel distances being handed out in a supposedly regionalised league. By the nature of the current structure of the pyramid, tier 3 of the non-league has four divisions of the same level, but 3 out of the 4 are southern divisions (and I don't agree that the southern league is southern in name only, there's a handful of teams from the southern midlands and when you look at the amount of travel involved in this league as opposed to the NPL for example, it's night and day. Even Grantham are in the NPL, hardly northern is it!).

To me, that is what either needs sorting out, or those leagues are structured in a different way so they only feed into the National South. A Southern premier league could feed into the National South and solely the NPL into the National North. Split the level below that at the southern level more. Most of these Southern leagues are filled with teams getting diddy little crowds compared to even the NPL that has FC United, Shields, Scarborough and a bunch of other sides that would be a good addition to our level. Instead we will end up with Village Rangers of the Cotswolds who average 300 a game winning the southern playoff and then have to travel to Blyth midweek (I'm being deliberately provocative here, but there is a wider point - we shouldn't be redrawing the league every year because of the teams coming up as well as those coming down from the national - which will always cause some degree of a problem because you can't control who that will be - but you can control the direction of those sides coming up)
I agree with what you’re saying but one can be done, in-balances in leagues with odd number of clubs?
I may not live in the north east anymore but i still support the north east teams

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by lo36789 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:11 pm

I can't help but think your main problem seems to be the geography, shape and population distribution of England...and everything else is pretty much symptomatic of that.

At the end of the day at every step of the pyramid the clubs are just split into equal (as far as possible) geographies to aid travel costs. That happens from step 2 to the base of the pyramid.

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by shildonlad » Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:48 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:11 pm
I can't help but think your main problem seems to be the geography, shape and population distribution of England...and everything else is pretty much symptomatic of that.

At the end of the day at every step of the pyramid the clubs are just split into equal (as far as possible) geographies to aid travel costs. That happens from step 2 to the base of the pyramid.
Thats the idea but will always be some clubs un-happy about what league they are in
I may not live in the north east anymore but i still support the north east teams

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by real_darlo_85 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 8:55 pm

Ginge01 wrote:
Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:11 pm
Today’s games, Monday Apr 18th 2022
Gateshead.... 4-2 Darlington
Alfreton....... 3-0 York
Brackley....... 0-1 Boston
Bradford....... 0-0 Guiseley
Curzon Ashton 1-0 Chorley
Farsley......... 2-0 Southport
Fylde.......... 3-1 Chester
Gloucester.... 1-0 Hereford
Kidderminster. 0-0 Kettering
Spennymoor... 3-0 Blyth

The Vanarama National League North, Monday Apr 18th 2022

...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
01. Gateshead.... 38 16 1 2.. 11 4 .4. 91 42. 49.. 86
02. Brackley....... 38 15 2 2... 9 8 .2. 49 20. 29.. 82
03. Fylde.......... 38 13 2 4... 9 5 .5. 63 34. 29.. 73
04. Kidderminster 38 12 3 4... 7 7 .5. 67 32. 35.. 67
05. Chorley ....... 38 11 4 4... 5 8 .6. 58 44. 14.. 60
06. Boston......... 38 10 4 5... 7 3 .9. 58 52. ..6.. 58
07. Kettering...... 38. 8 6 5... 7 4 .8. 51 46. ..5.. 55
08. York............ 37 10 3 6... 6 4 .8. 51 47. ..4.. 55
09. Spennymoor.. 38.. 8 6 5... 7 2 10. 51 49. ..2.. 53
10. Southport..... 38.. 8 9 2... 5 4 10. 52 50. ..2.. 52
11. Darlington.... 38.. 9 3 7... 5 6 .8. 56 54. ..2.. 51
12. Hereford...... 38.. 9 4 6... 5 5 .9. 45 45. ..0.. 51
13. Alfreton........ 37.. 5 8 5... 9 1 .9. 50 54. -4.. 51
14. Curzon Ashton 37.. 7 6 6... 6 5 .7. 45 53. .-8.. 50
15. Bradford. ..... 38.. 7 5 7... 4 5 10. 44 58. -14.. 43
16. Leamington... 38.. 9 5 5... 1 7 11. 34 43. .-9.. 42
17. Gloucester..... 38.. 6 7 6... 4 5 10. 42 55. -14.. 42
18. Chester ....... 37.. 7 6 5... 3 3 13. 65 70. .-5.. 39
19. Farsley......... 38.. 7 6 6... 2 3 14. 36 72. -36.. 36
20. Blyth........... 38.. 7 2 10.. 3 3 13. 36 73. -37.. 35
21. Telford..........38.. 7 5 7... 0 8 11. 45 61. -16.. 34
22. Guiseley....... 38.. 5 5 9... 3 2 14. 27 62. -35.. 31


Comments in current full league table order,
Top 12 games outstanding are listed with their matchdates.

Gateshead;
Top 12 games remaining (4); Kettering (A) 23/04, Southport (H) 30/04, Chorley (A) 02/05, Hereford (H) 07/05;
Gateshead 4-2 Darlington; stay top of the table after erasing an 0-2 HT deficit with four goals inside the last 25 mins.

Brackley;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Darlington (A) 23/04, Hereford (A) 02/05;
Brackley 0-1 Boston; Brackley remain in second place after failing to score for the second straight game and conceded an 88th min goal to playoff chasing Boston and lose 0-1.

Fylde;
Top 12 games remaining (3); Boston (A) 23/04, Kettering (H) 30/04, York (A) 02/05;
Fylde 3-1 Chester; Fylde remain in third place after a 3-1 win, leading 2-0 at half time, extending it to 3-0 before Chester scored their only goal.

Kidderminster;
Top 12 games remaining (1); Darlington (H) 07/05;
Kidderminster 0-0 Kettering; Kidderminster remain in fourth place, after a goalless draw home to playoff chasing Kettering.

Chorley;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Gateshead (H) 02/05, Spennymoor (A) 07/05;
Curzon Ashton 1-0 Chorley; Chorley lose for the second consecutive game, conceding just a 16th min goal to Curzon Ashton. Chorley remain in fifth place.

Boston;
Top 12 games remaining (1); Flyde(A) 23/04;
Brackley 0-1 Boston; Boston keep their playoff hopes alive by going to Brackley and scoring the only goal of the game after 88 mins. Boston rise to sixth place.

Kettering;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Gateshead (H) 23/04, Fylde (A) 30/04;
Kidderminster 0-0 Kettering; Kettering earned a valuable away point at 4th place Kidderminster. Kettering rise one place to seventh.

York;
Top 12 games remaining (1); Fylde (H) 02/05;
Alfreton 3-0 York; York suffered a setback to their playoff hopes with a bad 0-3 loss at Alfreton. York trailed 0-2 at half time before conceding a third five mins from time. York fall two places to eighth place.

Spennymoor;
Top 12 games remaining (3); Southport (A) 23/04, Hereford (H) 30/04, Chorley (H) 07/05;
Spennymoor 3-0 Blyth; Spenny rise three places to ninth after scoring two first half goals and one second half goal to beat Blyth 3-0.

Southport;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Spennymoor (H) 23/04, Gateshead (A) 30/04;
Farsley 2-0 Southport; Southport’s poor form continues, conceding two second half goals to lose 0-2 at Farsley.

Darlington;
Top 12 games remaining (2); Brackley (H) 23/04, Kidderminster (A) 07/05;
Gateshead 4-2 Darlington; A great start from Darlington had them leading 2-0 after 17 mins which they held until the 66th min. Being part time and suffering injuries hit them with four goals conceded to finish the game 2-4. Darlington fall three places to eleventh place.

Hereford;
Top 12 games remaining (3); Spennymoor (A) 30/04, Brackley (H) 02/05, Gateshead (A) 07/05;
Gloucester 1-0 Hereford; Hereford fall to twelfth place after conceding a second half to lose 0-1 to Gloucester.


This week’s games

04/23 Saturday
Darlington..... vs Brackley
Blyth........... vs Kidderminster
Boston......... vs Fylde
Chester........ vs Farsley
Chorley......... vs Telford
Guiseley........ vs Curzon Ashton
Hereford....... vs Bradford
Kettering....... vs Gateshead
Leamington.... vs Alfreton
Southport...... vs Spennymoor
York............. vs Gloucester


Comments

Going for the league championship, Gateshead are favourites to win the league with their four point league after Brackley’s loss today.

...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
01. Gateshead.... 38 16 1 2.. 11 4 .4. 91 42. 49.. 86
02. Brackley....... 38 15 2 2... 9 8 .2. 49 20. 29.. 82


The playoff second group, Fylde with a comfortable 6 point lead.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
03. Fylde.......... 38 13 2 4... 9 5 .5. 63 34. 29.. 73
04. Kidderminster 38 12 3 4... 7 7 .5. 67 32. 35.. 67


The playoff third group, those occupying fifth thru seven place, Chorley’s lead narrows again with their loss today. A huge win for Boston at Brackley today, Kettering now lead York by a goal difference of +5 to +4.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
05. Chorley ....... 38 11 4 4... 5 8 .6. 58 44. 14.. 60
06. Boston......... 38 10 4 5... 7 3 .9. 58 52. ..6.. 58
07. Kettering...... 38. 8 6 5... 7 4 .8. 51 46. ..5.. 55


The playoff chasers, York fall to eighth. So will Kettering stumble, and York get back in, both times have to play Fylde, Kettering also has to play Gateshead.
...................... Pd .W D L..W D L...F...A..GD..Pts
08. York............ 37 10 3 6... 6 4 .8. 51 47. ..4.. 55
09. Spennymoor.. 38.. 8 6 5... 7 2 10. 51 49. ..2.. 53
10. Southport..... 38.. 8 9 2... 5 4 10. 52 50. ..2.. 52
11. Darlington.... 38.. 9 3 7... 5 6 .8. 56 54. ..2.. 51
12. Hereford...... 38.. 9 4 6... 5 5 .9. 45 45. ..0.. 51


Predictions
Champions Gateshead, with a comfortable four point lead.

Playoffs participants;
Brackley Fylde, Kidderminster, all moving towards mathematical certainty

Chorley, Boston, York. Chorley still need points, Boston have momentum, I'm picking York to get seventh place. I think the Darlington dream is probably over, too many injuries, one point from the last nine with Brackley next to play, although that could finish up being a one goal game. Darlington need to win that game and hope Kettering lose to Gateshead, and Soutport vs Spenny is a draw.
Appreciate the time and effort Ginge01 has put in to try and statistically predict the end of season run-in, thank you. What I would like to know is, will this be one of the lowest points totals needed to gain a promotion place? Is this season an anomaly or on par with seasons gone before and have we missed out on a potentially lower total needed to land a playoff spot?
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by Quaker85 » Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:49 pm

H1987 wrote:The Curzon result was the final nail, yesterday you would never expect us to get anything. Being rid of two of the full time sides would be nice ahead of next year. Gateshead and Fylde saying goodbye would probably be best for us.

Elsewhere, it's likely that we will be joined by Buxton after South Shields slipped up against Whitby. They'll likely face the playoffs which will most likely also include Scarborough and Warrington.

Kings Lynn are likely heading back to us, but the other three currently in the relegation zone of the national are all south of London, so you'd imagine some more shuffling will occur, as the 'North' rapidly becomes even more ridiculous. Elsewhere, Banbury (Oxfordshire) are leading the Southern League so would likely end up in the North if promoted (I believe technically Southern League sides *can* end up in the South still but it's all but impossible now). Playoff sides in that league include AFC Rushden and Diamonds . If the National league relegation zones end up with a bit of a shake up, in the unlikely event Barnet were to be relegated, they'd quite possibly end up in the North too. A London team. Presumably we will end up with more shuffled over from the Conference South (possibly Oxford City or St Albans).

There really needs to be a rethink about how this division is managed. To my mind, the only division that should be promoting to the Conference North is the NPL. Pushing two up from the Southern League (either here, or into the South and then moving 'northerly' South teams across) is just warping the league more and more. It gets worse with each passing season. We are likely to lose Gateshead, Fylde, and Guiseley and get Buxton, Kings Lynn, Banbury, and some shuffled 'northerly' south sides. Arguably the only real northern side we will get will be from the NPL playoff at this rate.
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by H1987 » Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:04 pm

Buxton and Banbury promoted from the NPL and Southern

NPL playoff:

South Shields vs Warrington
Scarborough vs Matlock

Southern playoff

Peterborough Sports (inventive name that one) vs Alvechurch
Coalville vs Rushall

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by tdk1 » Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:30 pm

I'm assuming two teams up from each division? As a Shropshire exile I'd be hoping to see rushall and Warrington come up but I'm pretty sure I'm in a minority there. Regardless, given the number of southern teams coming into this level you'd assume all four teams wil be landing in the NLN, plus kings Lynn. I'd imagine one will then be transferred over from the NLS (unless my rough maths are wrong) to make the 24 team division for next year.

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The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by Darlogramps » Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:43 pm

tdk1 wrote:I'm assuming two teams up from each division? As a Shropshire exile I'd be hoping to see rushall and Warrington come up but I'm pretty sure I'm in a minority there. Regardless, given the number of southern teams coming into this level you'd assume all four teams wil be landing in the NLN, plus kings Lynn. I'd imagine one will then be transferred over from the NLS (unless my rough maths are wrong) to make the 24 team division for next year.
I don’t think we will see a team transferred over (unless King’s Lynn pull off a very unlikely escape).

Here’s my maths:

Currently a 22-team division. Two go up and one goes down leaves 19. Four come up plus King’s Lynn come down equals 24. So it shouldn’t need any transfers across from the NLS.

Because the NLS is operating on 21 sides this season, Weymouth and Dover going into the NLS and King’s Lynn going into the NLN evens up the numbers for next season.

But with Banbury, King’s Lynn plus another Midlands/Cambridgeshire trip, that’s going to be a lot more travelling, particularly if we lose some of our shorter trips like Gateshead or Blyth/Farsley/Guiseley.
Last edited by Darlogramps on Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by tdk1 » Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:44 pm

Yep, right you are. My bad maths.

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by H1987 » Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:04 pm

Darlogramps wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:43 pm
tdk1 wrote:I'm assuming two teams up from each division? As a Shropshire exile I'd be hoping to see rushall and Warrington come up but I'm pretty sure I'm in a minority there. Regardless, given the number of southern teams coming into this level you'd assume all four teams wil be landing in the NLN, plus kings Lynn. I'd imagine one will then be transferred over from the NLS (unless my rough maths are wrong) to make the 24 team division for next year.
I don’t think we will see a team transferred over (unless King’s Lynn pull off a very unlikely escape).

Here’s my maths:

Currently a 22-team division. Two go up and one goes down leaves 19. Four come up plus King’s Lynn come down equals 24. So it shouldn’t need any transfers across from the NLS.

Because the NLS is operating on 21 sides this season, Weymouth and Dover going into the NLS and King’s Lynn going into the NLN evens up the numbers for next season.

But with Banbury, King’s Lynn plus another Midlands/Cambridgeshire trip, that’s going to be a lot more travelling, particularly if we lose some of our shorter trips like Gateshead or Blyth/Farsley/Guiseley.
Yep, a lot more. Given the nature of the teams coming down from the national level, we'll likely gain a South side. Probably Oxford City, looking at the options, although they could still go up. Braintree is another possibility.

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The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by Darlogramps » Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:41 pm

H1987 wrote:
Darlogramps wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:43 pm
tdk1 wrote:I'm assuming two teams up from each division? As a Shropshire exile I'd be hoping to see rushall and Warrington come up but I'm pretty sure I'm in a minority there. Regardless, given the number of southern teams coming into this level you'd assume all four teams wil be landing in the NLN, plus kings Lynn. I'd imagine one will then be transferred over from the NLS (unless my rough maths are wrong) to make the 24 team division for next year.
I don’t think we will see a team transferred over (unless King’s Lynn pull off a very unlikely escape).

Here’s my maths:

Currently a 22-team division. Two go up and one goes down leaves 19. Four come up plus King’s Lynn come down equals 24. So it shouldn’t need any transfers across from the NLS.

Because the NLS is operating on 21 sides this season, Weymouth and Dover going into the NLS and King’s Lynn going into the NLN evens up the numbers for next season.

But with Banbury, King’s Lynn plus another Midlands/Cambridgeshire trip, that’s going to be a lot more travelling, particularly if we lose some of our shorter trips like Gateshead or Blyth/Farsley/Guiseley.
Yep, a lot more. Given the nature of the teams coming down from the national level, we'll likely gain a South side. Probably Oxford City, looking at the options, although they could still go up. Braintree is another possibility.
We won’t as only three come down from the National League this season. The only way we’ll get a transfer across is if King’s Lynn avoid relegation, meaning Aldershot go down.

In that instance there would have to be a move across (most likely Oxford City). But the chances of King’s Lynn staying up are pretty remote.

But the wider point is the trend looks like continuing. Of the next 12 sides above the relegation zone in the National League, only one would be classed as “northern” - Altrincham. Meanwhile the top seven are all northern sides (well by the league’s definition Solihull Moors are northern anyway).

So the likelihood is, particularly as we go back to four coming down from the National League from next season, we’ll see more southern teams coming down, further shifting the imbalance at Step 2 level.
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by lo36789 » Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:33 pm

I saw something this week that step 5 in the south are looking at a further re jig due to exceptional travel times and distances.

Some clubs in the equivalent of the Northern League have up to 4 hours each way trips midweek. Allegedly there are clubs around Bristol and some in the depths of Cornwall where on a good run its over 3 hours and 4 on a bad 'rush hour' run.

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by H1987 » Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:54 pm

Darlogramps wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:41 pm
H1987 wrote:
Darlogramps wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:43 pm
tdk1 wrote:I'm assuming two teams up from each division? As a Shropshire exile I'd be hoping to see rushall and Warrington come up but I'm pretty sure I'm in a minority there. Regardless, given the number of southern teams coming into this level you'd assume all four teams wil be landing in the NLN, plus kings Lynn. I'd imagine one will then be transferred over from the NLS (unless my rough maths are wrong) to make the 24 team division for next year.
I don’t think we will see a team transferred over (unless King’s Lynn pull off a very unlikely escape).

Here’s my maths:

Currently a 22-team division. Two go up and one goes down leaves 19. Four come up plus King’s Lynn come down equals 24. So it shouldn’t need any transfers across from the NLS.

Because the NLS is operating on 21 sides this season, Weymouth and Dover going into the NLS and King’s Lynn going into the NLN evens up the numbers for next season.

But with Banbury, King’s Lynn plus another Midlands/Cambridgeshire trip, that’s going to be a lot more travelling, particularly if we lose some of our shorter trips like Gateshead or Blyth/Farsley/Guiseley.
Yep, a lot more. Given the nature of the teams coming down from the national level, we'll likely gain a South side. Probably Oxford City, looking at the options, although they could still go up. Braintree is another possibility.
We won’t as only three come down from the National League this season. The only way we’ll get a transfer across is if King’s Lynn avoid relegation, meaning Aldershot go down.

In that instance there would have to be a move across (most likely Oxford City). But the chances of King’s Lynn staying up are pretty remote.

But the wider point is the trend looks like continuing. Of the next 12 sides above the relegation zone in the National League, only one would be classed as “northern” - Altrincham. Meanwhile the top seven are all northern sides (well by the league’s definition Solihull Moors are northern anyway).

So the likelihood is, particularly as we go back to four coming down from the National League from next season, we’ll see more southern teams coming down, further shifting the imbalance at Step 2 level.
Ah only three had eluded me. But yikes on that divide. It's hardly surprising though, the system is bonkers. The pyramid is in need of a shakeup.

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by lo36789 » Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:09 pm

H1987 wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:54 pm
Ah only three had eluded me. But yikes on that divide. It's hardly surprising though, the system is bonkers. The pyramid is in need of a shakeup.
It got shaken up last summer you know?

It hasn't even been a full season since been shaken up. After being delayed for 2 seasons from when it was meant to be done.

The country is cut into 4 below our level rather than 3, and 8 rather than 7 below that.

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by Darlogramps » Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:28 pm

The fundamental issue is there are more football clubs in the “South” than the “North”, mainly because more people live in the South than the North.

Look at the Step 5 (Northern League level) divisions this season. There’s three divisions for the whole of the North East, Yorkshire and North West, but six in and around London.

The FA can do what they like in terms of restructuring, but I don’t know how they get around that.
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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by MB86DFC » Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:40 pm

Darlogramps wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:28 pm
The fundamental issue is there are more football clubs in the “South” than the “North”, mainly because more people live in the South than the North.

Look at the Step 5 (Northern League level) divisions this season. There’s three divisions for the whole of the North East, Yorkshire and North West, but six in and around London.

The FA can do what they like in terms of restructuring, but I don’t know how they get around that.
I think people forget that the south of the country is wider than the north is long, if that makes any sense? Truro to Lowestoft is about 430 miles each way, so if they were both in the same division their travel would be far worse than ours.

Perhaps a National north, National south east and National south west at our level? 1 up automatically from each division and the three playoff winners into a set of playoffs with 5th bottom of the National?

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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by Quaker85 » Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:26 pm

Alfreton have never looked back since we missed those pens. We’ve done the opposite unfortunately.


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Re: The Top 12, Monday April 18th 2022

Post by Darlogramps » Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:13 pm

H1987 wrote:Buxton and Banbury promoted from the NPL and Southern

NPL playoff:

South Shields vs Warrington
Scarborough vs Matlock

Southern playoff

Peterborough Sports (inventive name that one) vs Alvechurch
Coalville vs Rushall
South Shields bottle it and miss out on pens. Staggering that they’ve not gone up given the resources at their disposal in that division.

Scarborough v Warrington in the final. Can imagine a trip out to Scarborough would be well-attended by our fans.

Peterborough Sports v Coalville in the other play-off final.
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