Hartlepool By Election

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Old Git
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Hartlepool By Election

Post by Old Git » Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:17 am

This could be quite interesting as it is the first test of public opinion since the General Election in December 19. So much has changed in the meantime and it is first electoral test for Kier Starmer. Normally in opposition with a reasonable majority in the constituency you would expect Labour to hold the seat comfortably but things are far from normal.
I just have a feeling that this could be a close run contest and Labour might not have things all their own way. There was a sizeable Brexit vote in Hartlepool and it will be interesting to see if many former Labour voters return to the fold or whether they are prepared to put their faith in Boris.

Darlo_Pete
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Darlo_Pete » Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:37 am

Yes I'll be watching with interest. The Brexit Party is no more, isn't it called the Reform Party now? I would expect the Reform Party will get nowhere near the level of support the Brexit Party got at the General Election. I think the outcome will depend on where the Brexit Party votes go too. Interesting that ex MP for Stockton South has been parachuted in to contest the by election for Labour. Will that go down well with voters in Hartlepool, probably not.

EDJOHNS
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by EDJOHNS » Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:02 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:37 am
Yes I'll be watching with interest. The Brexit Party is no more, isn't it called the Reform Party now? I would expect the Reform Party will get nowhere near the level of support the Brexit Party got at the General Election. I think the outcome will depend on where the Brexit Party votes go too. Interesting that ex MP for Stockton South has been parachuted in to contest the by election for Labour. Will that go down well with voters in Hartlepool, probably not.
How the reform party do,(if they contest it), depends largely on if people have learned from leaving was it UKIP? after the Brexit referendum?
As someone who openly supports much of what Nigel Farage is about, that mistake cost us a lot of dithering in getting the deal done.
There are many things that still need pushing and the reform party are the best hope for much change.

Darlo_Pete
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Darlo_Pete » Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:17 pm

I think the Conservatives miss a trick by putting forward a North Yorkshire councillor, rather than picking a candidate from Hartlepool. The bookies have Labour very marginally ahead of the Tory's, as they are 10/11 & the Tory's 11/10..

Old Git
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Old Git » Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:41 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:17 pm
I think the Conservatives miss a trick by putting forward a North Yorkshire councillor, rather than picking a candidate from Hartlepool. The bookies have Labour very marginally ahead of the Tory's, as they are 10/11 & the Tory's 11/10..
Agree Pete they are a very parochial bunch in Monkeyville and not sure a North Yorkshire farmer will go down well. Not a good choice of candidate for me but don’t forget they used elect Peter Mandleson and he was hardly your typical Monkey Hanger.

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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Darlo_Pete » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:39 am

Ah yes I forgot about Bambi, haha.

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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Darlo_Pete » Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:23 pm

I see the bookies have the Conservatives as favourites to win the by-election. Labour should be walking a contest like this. Even if they win, it will be terrible news for Starmer, unless Labour can increase their majority.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... ion-winner

Old Git
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Old Git » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:48 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:23 pm
I see the bookies have the Conservatives as favourites to win the by-election. Labour should be walking a contest like this. Even if they win, it will be terrible news for Starmer, unless Labour can increase their majority.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... ion-winner
It is necessary in a healthy democracy to have a strong opposition to hold the Government to account and provide alternative options and policies. Sadly the Labour Party is weak and ineffective and lacks a strong leader and the Liberal Democats are pathetic. As a result the Tories even with Bumbling Boris in charge are having a relatively easy time of things.
Totally agree Pete Labour should be winning this seat with an increased majority but I think the electorate look at the Labour Party and just don’t know what they stand for anymore. Not surprising as I am not sure Kier Starmer knows either. After Corbyn’s departure I thought the Labour Party could only improve its election prospects but Starmer is so wet you could ring him out.

comeondarlo
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by comeondarlo » Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:34 pm

Old Git wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:48 pm
Darlo_Pete wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:23 pm
I see the bookies have the Conservatives as favourites to win the by-election. Labour should be walking a contest like this. Even if they win, it will be terrible news for Starmer, unless Labour can increase their majority.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... ion-winner
It is necessary in a healthy democracy to have a strong opposition to hold the Government to account and provide alternative options and policies. Sadly the Labour Party is weak and ineffective and lacks a strong leader and the Liberal Democats are pathetic. As a result the Tories even with Bumbling Boris in charge are having a relatively easy time of things.
Totally agree Pete Labour should be winning this seat with an increased majority but I think the electorate look at the Labour Party and just don’t know what they stand for anymore. Not surprising as I am not sure Kier Starmer knows either. After Corbyn’s departure I thought the Labour Party could only improve its election prospects but Starmer is so wet you could ring him out.
Absolutely spot on there OG.
In fact I’d go as far to say that we end up with people like Trump and Boris because the opposition is so poor.
It’s really not a good state of affairs.

Darlo_Pete
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Darlo_Pete » Wed May 05, 2021 6:20 am

If you believe the bookies odds, the Conservatives are nailed on to win Hartlepool. The best odds for a Conservative win are 1/6 & the best for a Labour win are 7/2.

Darlo_Pete
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Darlo_Pete » Fri May 07, 2021 6:12 am

Wow the Conservatives win with a majority of 6940. Wonder if Starmer will be under pressure to resign.

Old Git
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Old Git » Fri May 07, 2021 7:39 am

Unprecedented for the Government to be thrashing the Opposition in a by-election after 11 years in power. Desperate result on a personal level for Kier Starmer as this was his first electoral test. The problem for the Labour Party is who would you replace him with?

Darlogramps
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Hartlepool By Election

Post by Darlogramps » Fri May 07, 2021 10:18 am

Labour can change as many leaders as they like, it won’t make any difference until they start connecting and listening to people again.

It’s a party stuck in its own bubble, the party of the affluent metropolitan cities. Less affluent areas like Hartlepool no longer feel Labour represents them.

And they’re right. There’s some in the Labour Party who actively despise the Brexit-supporting, working class voters in these seats.

It’s not purely a Starmer problem. It’s not purely a Corbyn issue or even a Blair thing. It’s a whole load of issues and missteps that have led to this.

I think it’s too late for the party in the North East, and we’re set for a period now of Conservative success up here. Ben Houchen has done a cracking job, so it’ll be a while before Labour gets any joy in the North East.

Labour’s task is to detoxify themselves, stop talking to themselves on issues people don’t care about, and actually listen to the wider public, and then act on that, rather than sneering.

Otherwise it’s simply a glorified protest movement and not a serious political party. At best Labour is a decade away from power.
If ever you're bored or miserable:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlZohZoadGY

EDJOHNS
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by EDJOHNS » Fri May 07, 2021 1:22 pm

Darlogramps wrote:
Fri May 07, 2021 10:18 am
Labour can change as many leaders as they like, it won’t make any difference until they start connecting and listening to people again.

It’s a party stuck in its own bubble, the party of the affluent metropolitan cities. Less affluent areas like Hartlepool no longer feel Labour represents them.

And they’re right. There’s some in the Labour Party who actively despise the Brexit-supporting, working class voters in these seats.

It’s not purely a Starmer problem. It’s not purely a Corbyn issue or even a Blair thing. It’s a whole load of issues and missteps that have led to this.

I think it’s too late for the party in the North East, and we’re set for a period now of Conservative success up here. Ben Houchen has done a cracking job, so it’ll be a while before Labour gets any joy in the North East.

Labour’s task is to detoxify themselves, stop talking to themselves on issues people don’t care about, and actually listen to the wider public, and then act on that, rather than sneering.

Otherwise it’s simply a glorified protest movement and not a serious political party. At best Labour is a decade away from power.
1 for the diary. 100% agree with every word.
I am totally against much of "politics" these days. From strongly believing that local town councils should be 100% independent and working solely on what is good for the people they represent and not answerable to any political party through to the fact the whole Westminster mass needs to be torn apart and restarted to get rid of the old boys network that runs right through virtually every single party.
Oh, I know it won't happen, but yesterday was the first time in my life I did not go and vote. Simple reason for the last 3 weeks I have seen the "candidates" wandering round my village and not once did any of them knock on my door to talk to me. The lot of them just went to people they "know" to make sure of their votes !!!! I may be only a small part of the village, but that not 1 of them bothered with me, or any of my neighbours is plain wrong.
How on earth we ever improve the situation with there being no semblance of any realistic opposition God alone knows. 1 thing is for sure, things will not get noticeably better in the time I have left as there is simply too far to go.

Darlo_Pete
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Re: Hartlepool By Election

Post by Darlo_Pete » Fri May 07, 2021 7:46 pm

At the moment, there is no prospect of Labour forming any future government. They are too divided & can't come up with any policies.

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